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Saturday, July 31, 2021

Hidden Gem - Acrysil - Our 30-Bagger Stock in 9 Years

Dear Reader,

Our equity analysts published Hidden Gem - Nov 2012 research report and shared it with all Hidden Gems members. Research report was published 9 years back on 25th Nov 2012. Hidden Gem stock of Nov'12 was Acrysil India Ltd (BSE Code: 524091, NSE Code: ACRYSIL) and our team recommended buy at average price of Rs. 21 (stock split adjusted price, actual recommended price was Rs. 105) for target of Rs. 46 (adjusted stock split target price, actual target price was Rs. 230) in period of 18-24 months. Stock later achieved its target price and we informed our members to continue to hold it.

Acrysil stock has made its all time high of Rs. 666.80 recently and closed at Rs. 619.65 yesterday delivering as on date returns of 2852%. Acrysil is a 30-Bagger stock for our Hidden Gems members within period of 9 years.

Net profit of Acrysil rose 234.36% to Rs 13.04 crore in the quarter ended March 2021 as against Rs 3.90 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2020. Sales rose 56.38% to Rs 100.63 crore in the quarter ended March 2021 as against Rs 64.35 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2020.

For FY2020-21, net profit rose 77.17% to Rs 39.12 crore in the year ended March 2021 as against Rs 22.08 crore during the previous year ended March 2020. Sales rose 12.12% to Rs 309.72 crore in the year ended March 2021 as against Rs 276.23 crore during the previous year ended March 2020.

Below is the summary of Acrysil (India) Ltd shared by our team under Hidden Gem research report - Nov'12.

Company Background

Acrysil Multibagger Stock Analysis
Acrysil Ltd is a leading manufacturer and exporter of Composite Quartz and Granite Kitchen Sinks from India. Acrysil Limited was founded in 1987 as a joint venture with Schock & Co. GmbH (Germany), the inventors and world leaders in composite quartz technology, as well as in thermoplastic xtruded profiles. The company began in a small way with production of about 2800 sinks annually, along with thermoplastic co-extruded profiles for the domestic auto industry.

The company market’s its sinks under the Brand CARYSIL. They are also an OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) for major brands worldwide. Besides Quartz and Granite sinks which constitute more than 90% sales of the company, the company also sells Food waste disposers, faucets and stainless steel sinks under it’s own brand.

In the highly competitive market of lifestyle products and home fittings, Carysil stands literally in a class of its own. It is India’s only indigenous brand of kitchen sinks made of quartz bonded with resin, homogeneously moulded by a unique CNC-controlled polymerization process. That results in a product that is scratchresistance, dent-proof, stainresistant and heat-proof, with a glossy and truly lasting granite finish in several varieties. It has truly international looks and styling, and is available in a range of attractive colours. It is highlyfunctional, easy to clean, and safe in contact with food. Best of all, it remains as good as new even afteryears of use.

With domestic response being somewhat slow to take off, Acrysil began its focus on exports of quartz sinks in 1993. Sales jumped threefold, from Rs 359.19 lakhs in 1993 to Rs 1,036.68 lakhs in 1999. So encouraging was this response that in 1999, the company sold off its extrusion operation, choosing to focus all its efforts on the more promising quartz sinks division. 2001-02, the year that Acrysil first looked at India as a potential growth market for quartz sinks, ready for the introduction of carefully chosen models.

In just a decade, domestic sales multiplied from Rs 1.83 crores in 2001-02 to Rs 12.4 crores in 2011-12.The brand is available in more than 2000 outlets, and is a preferred choice of builders and Modular Kitchen Studios.

Carysil’s world-class quality is demonstrated in its export performance. Today, Carysil sinks are shipped to 30 countries, including U.S.A., France, U.K., Greece, many European markets, Far-East and Gulf Countries. In fact, at Rs 47 crores of Sales in FY 2011-12, exports today account for 80% of the company’s turnover. As a truly international product, Carysil also carries ISO9000-14000 certification.

Recent Developments (25th Nov 2012)

1. Addition of new Institutional Customers & Entry into new Geographies

Company has added some of the major institutional customers in the US and Germany, many of them are the result of acquisition of Acrysil GmbH as a subsidiary last year. These new buyers themselves have extensive networks for distribution and marketing, so there is considerable potential there. At the same time, Acrysil has made an entry into some entirely new geographies, most importantly Columbia, Hungary, Iran and Israel.

2. New Products offering for Global Clientele

Company has customized several new models – that is, new styling and designs – for the tastes of clientele in Europe, Russia, USA and the Far East. This represents a substantial investment and management is confident to get multifold sales through exports. Company has plans to show new range of products in many overseas trade fairs and exhibitions. Moreover, stainless steel sinks are finding excellent acceptance in Singapore as well as European markets, so much so that management of the company is now focusing on new technologies for even better quality and lower cost in their manufacture.

3. Targeting no. 1 position in Premium Kitchen Segment in India

Company is also giving a serious push in the domestic arena. Company management has set an objective to be No. 1 in the premium kitchen segment in not more than five years. Accordingly, company is expanding its product portfolio with a complete package of new products that includes various Appliances, Chimneys, Cooking Hobs and Ovens, slated to be launched in October-November 2012.

4. Optimizing Process to Improve Operating Margins

Company has taken corrective measures to improve existing systems and processes especially in R&D, HR skill acquisition, standards compliance and other quality drivers. Company is constantly upgrading its technologies with an eye on better productivity, more reliable high quality and economical operation as margins are under more pressure now compared to earlier years.

5. Rewarded Share holders by Issuing Bonus Share

Company management has recently rewarded its share holders by issuing bonus share in the proportion of 1 (one) Equity Share for every 2 (two) Equity Shares held by the Shareholders on 28th Sept’12.

Financial Performance (25th Nov 2012)

Acrysil net profit rises 149.38% in the September 2012 quarter 


Net profit of Acrysil rose 149.38% to Rs 20.2 million in the quarter ended September 2012 as against Rs 8.1 million during the previous quarter ended September 2011. Sales rose 43.26% to Rs 21.89 crore in the quarter ended September 2012 as against Rs 15.28 crore during the previous quarter ended September 2011.



Acrysil Multibagger Financials

Acrysil net profit declines 39.76% in the June 2012 quarter

Net profit of Acrysil declined 39.76% to Rs 10 million in the quarter ended June 2012 as against Rs 16.6 million during the previous quarter ended June 2011. Sales declined 6.77% to Rs 167.8 million in the quarter ended June 2012 as against Rs 180 million during the previous quarter ended June 2011

Future Outlook (25th Nov 2012)


Rising Incomes to Fuel Demand for Branded / Premium Quality Lifestyle Products

The Indian consumer market, which is primarily dominated by young generation, is becoming increasingly sophisticated and brand conscious. A typical upper middle class young consumer is beginning to look beyond the utility aspect of a product to seek intangibles like brand and lifestyle statement associated with the product.

According to a McKinsey study, there are 1.2 million affluent households, expected to reach 2.5 million households by 2015.

Accordingly, India is fast becoming a large market even for luxury goods and services, based on:
 
i) Ten-fold rise in India’s middle class: from 50 million to 580 million; with comfortable living standards 
ii) The upper middle class expected to swell from 25 million people to over 130 million by 2025
iii) 24 million upper crest Indians (income > Rs 1mn per year, or $ 117,000 PPP) with global lifestyles.

India is rapidly changing from a deprived and aspirer’s economy to seekers country and with that, people’s preference for lifestyle products is growing. The young generation of consumers is driving the demand for lifestyle products.

The Indian affluent class has shown lot of attraction towards premium branded goods and this fetish will continue. A recent luxury brands survey conducted by The Nielsen Company (a global information and media research company), has ranked India third after Greece and Hong Kong in the list of most brand conscious countries in the world.

Modularization of Kitchens – Market with Huge Growth Potential

According to Industry experts, the modular kitchens segment stands at around 1500Cr. In India the readymade kitchens are currently sold at the rate of 10,000 units per month.

The increasing number of nuclear families, rising disposable incomes, affordability, and easy budget, will drive awareness levels and demand for modular kitchen, which is already growing at the rate of 45-50% per annum.

Modular kitchen accounts for 40% of the furniture and fittings industry and the products in this market are largely focused towards establishments in urban India. Modular kitchen segment in India is expected to grow 8-10 times in the next three to five years.

Saral Gyan Recommendation (25th Nov 2012)

1. Sales turnover of the company has doubled in last 5 years, where as net profits have declined in last 4 years due to high raw material prices and slowdown in US and Europe. Company has made an entry into some entirely new geographies like Columbia, Hungary, Iran and Israel. Company has also customized several new models in terms of new styling and design for their existing clientele in Europe, Russia, USA and the Far East to drive growth.


2. Management is now looking aggressive to grab domestic market share for its premium quality products. Company is also increasing its product portfolio to offer complete package of new products to their clientele. Currently, company generates 80% of revenue from exports and now aims to increase their domestic sales from existing 20% to 30% in next couple of years.


3. Domestic sales of the company have increased from 1.1 crores in 2001-02 to 12.4 crores in 2011-12. In fact, in FY 2011-12, domestic sales of the company have grown by nearly 43%. Company is also opening galleries to show case their products in metro cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad to boost sales in domestic markets.

 
4. As per our estimates, Acrysil can deliver bottom line of 80 million for full financial year 2012 – 13, annualized EPS of Rs. 21.3 with forward P/E ratio of 5.4 X for FY 2012-13, which makes stock an attractive bet at CMP.

5. Management has rewarded share holders by paying consistent dividends since 2006. Dividend yield at current market price is above 3. Recently, company also issued bonus share to share holders at the ratio of 1:2


6. On equity of Rs. 44.58 million, the estimated annualized EPS for FY 12-13 works out to Rs. 21.3 and the Book Value per share is Rs. 73. At current market price of Rs. 113.95, stock price to book value is 1.56, which makes stock valuations reasonable with a long term view of 18-24 months.


Considering reasonable valuations and opportunities in domestic markets of using premium quality products for luxury homes, we find Acrysil Ltd an attractive pick. Saral Gyan Team recommends “BUY” on Acrysil Ltd. for a target of Rs. 230 over a period of 18-24 months.

Buying Strategy:

  • 50% at current market price of Rs. 113.95
  • 50% at price range of Rs. 95 - 100
To Read / Download Saral Gyan Hidden Gem - Nov'12 Research Report - Click Here

Time has shown that smart investors have made their fortune by investing in equities in long term. None other asset class can match giving you such extra ordinary returns. Yes, its important for you to invest in right set of companies at right price with medium to long term perspective. If you think to invest in stocks for period of 3 months or 6 months, we suggest you to stay out of stock market because you are not investing, you are betting on volatility of stock market which could be risky.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

How to Explore Multibagger Stocks for Investment?

Below are the 6 Important Steps to Explore Best Stocks for Investment

Step-1: Find out how the company makes money
Step-2: Do a Sector Analysis of the Company
Step-3: Examine the recent & historical performance of the Stock
Step-4: Perform competitive analysis of the firm with its Competitors
Step-5: Read and evaluate company’s Financial statements
Step-6: Buy or Sell

Step-1: Find out how the company makes money

Before you decide to invest in a company’s stock, find out how the company makes money. This is probably the easiest of all the steps. Read company’s annual and quarterly reports, newspapers and business magazines to understand the various revenue streams of the firm. Stock price reflects the firm’s ability to generate consistent or above expectation profits/earnings from its ongoing/core operations. Any income from unrelated activities should not affect the stock price. Investors will pay for its earnings from its core operations, which is its strength and stable operation, and not from unrelated activities. Thus, you need to find out which operations of the firm are generating revenues and profits. If you do not know that you are bound to get a hit in future.

Warren Buffet once said that “if you do not understand how a company makes money, do not buy its stock- you will always end up loosing money”. He never invested even a single penny in technology stocks and yet made billions and billions of dollars both during tech bubble and bust.

Step-2: Do a Sector Analysis of the Company

First is to figure out which sector the stock is in. Then, figure out what all factors affect the performance of the sector. For example, Infosys is in IT services sector, NTPC is in Power sector and DLF is in Real Estate sector. Half of what a stock does is totally dependent on its sector. Simple rule-Good factors help stocks while bad factors hurt stocks.

Let’s take an example of airlines industry. The factors that affect it are fuel prices, growth in air traffic and competition. If fuel prices are high, tickets would be expensive and hence fewer people will fly. This will hurt the airlines sectors and firms equally. This would make the sector less attractive because there would be less scope for growth of the firms.

The idea is to find out the good and bad factors for the sectors and figure out how much they will affect the stock and how. What we are really looking at are reasons that will make stock price good or bad or a company look more or less valuable, even though nothing about the company changes. This will give you a broader view whether the stocks will do well or poorly in the future.

Step-3: Examine the recent & historical performance of the Stock

By performance we mean both operational and financial performance of the company. Take out some time to find out how the company has done in its business over the years. Were there issues with its operations such as labor strike, frequent breakdowns, higher attrition or lagging deadlines? If any company has a history of serious problems, it does not make a good buy because chances are high it may have similar problems again. History is a good predictor of future! It is also extremely important to find out the historical financial performance of the company – growth in revenues, profits (earnings), profit margins, stock price movements etc.

Step-4: Perform competitive analysis of the firm with its Competitors

This is most important step in analyzing a stock. Unfortunately, most of the retail investors do not bother to do this. It takes time to do this step but it worth trying if you don’t want to loose your money. Many investors buy a stock because they have heard about the company or used the products or think companies have excellent technologies. However, if you do not evaluate or compare those features of the company with other similar firms, how will you figure out whether the firm is utilizing them effectively or is better/worse than others? We also need to find out whether company is growing rapidly or slowly or has no growth. We would like to cover couple of financial ratios here in brief and explain how to use them to figure out a good stock.

P/E: Price-to-earnings ratio is the most widely used ratio in stock valuation. It means how much investors are paying more for each unit of income. It is calculated as Market Price of Stock / Earnings per share. A stock with a high P/E ratio suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to the overall market, as investors are paying more for today's earnings in anticipation of future earnings growth. Hence, as a generalization, stocks with this characteristic are considered to be growth stocks. However, P/E alone may not tell you the whole story as you see it varies from one company to another because of different growth rates. Hence, another ratio, PEG (P/E divided by Earnings Growth rate) gives a better comparative understanding of the stock.

PEG = Stocks P/E / Growth Rate
We do not want to go into the calculation part as values for P/E are available on internet for most of the companies.
A PEG of less than 1 makes an excellent buy if the company is fundamentally strong. If it is above 2, it is a sell. If PEG for all the stocks are not very different, one with lowest P/E value would be a great BUY.

Step-5: Read and evaluate company’s Financial statements

This is the most difficult part of this process. It is generally used by sophisticated finance professionals, mostly fund managers who can understand different financial statements. However, there are few things that even you should keep in mind. There are three different financial statement- balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. You should focus only on balance sheet and cash flow statement.

Balance Sheet: It summarizes a company’s assets, liabilities (debt) and shareholders’ equity at a specific point in time. A typical Indian firm’s balance sheet has following line items:

• Gross block
• Capital work in progress
• Investments
• Inventory
• Other current assets
• Equity Share capital
• Reserves
• Total debt

Gross block: Gross block is the sum total of all assets of the company valued at their cost of acquisition. This is inclusive of the depreciation that is to be charged on each asset.

Net block is the gross block less accumulated depreciation on assets. Net block is actually what the asset is worth to the company.

Capital work in progress: Capital work in progress sometimes at the end of the financial year, there is some construction or installation going on in the company, which is not complete, such installation is recorded in the books as capital work in progress because it is asset for the business.

Investments: If the company has made some investments out of its free cash, it is recorded under it.

Inventory: Inventory is the stock of goods that a company has at any point of time.

Receivables include the debtors of the company, i.e., it includes all those accounts which are to give money back to the company.

Other current assets: Other current assets include all the assets, which can be converted into cash within a very short period of time like cash in bank etc.

Equity Share capital: Equity Share capital is the owner\'s equity. It is the most permanent source of finance for the company.

Reserves: Reserves include the free reserves of the company which are built out of the genuine profits of the company. Together they are known as net worth of the company.

Total debt: Total debt includes the long term and the short debt of the company. Long term is for a longer duration, usually for a period more than 3 years like debentures. Short term debt is for a lesser duration, usually for less than a year like bank finance for working capital.

One need to ask-How much debt does the company have? How much debt does it have the current year? Find out debt to equity ratio. If this ratio is greater than 2, the company has a high risk of default on the interest payments. Also, find out whether the firm is generating enough cash to pay for its working capital or debt. If total liabilities are greater than total assets, sell the stock as the firm is heading for disaster. This debt to equity ratio is extremely important for a company to survive in bad economy. What is happening now-a-days should make this extremely important. Companies having higher debt ratio have got hammered in the stock market. Look at real estate companies- their stocks are down by almost 90% from all time highs made in 2007 - 2008. This is because they have high debt level which means higher interest payments. In case of liquidity crisis and global slowdown, it would be extremely difficult for such companies to survive. Remember, a weak balance sheet makes a company vulnerable to bankruptcy!

Step-6: Buy or Sell

Follow all the steps from 1 to 5 religiously. It will take time but worth doing it. If you do it, you won’t have to see a situation where you loose more than 50% of stock value in a week! Buying or selling will depend on how your stock(s) perform on the above analysis.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

How to Calculate CAGR of your Investments?

Dear Reader,

This article will let you know how to calculate the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, in Excel. You’ll also learn about some of the limitations.

Note: You can download our excel file to calculate CAGR returns, click on download link available at bottom of the article.

Different investments go up or down in value by different amounts over different time periods. Investors need a method of comparing one investment against another, especially if the returns have been volatile, or if investments and withdrawals are at irregular dates.

CAGR is the annual return of an investment assuming it has grown at the same rate every year. It’s a common concept; for example, the one, three and five-year returns on mutual fund fact sheets are CAGR values.

One method of calculating CAGR is given by this equation.

 There are three parameters in this equation.
  • start value of the investment
  • end value of the investment
  • number of years between the start and end value
You can also manipulate this formula to give, for example, the number of years required to grow an initial investment from a start value to an end value, given the growth rate..

Below tables use the above formulas to calculate CAGR.


You can also rearranges the formula so you can calculate the final amount (given the initial amount, CAGR, and number of years) and the number of years (given the initial and final amount, and CAGR).

You can also calculate the Compound Annual Growth Rate using Excel’s XIRR function – check out the screen below for an example.
 

XIRR takes three arguments:
  • The first is a range of cash flows into or out of the investment. Invested amounts are positive, but withdrawals are negative.
  • The second is a range of dates corresponding to the investments or withdrawals,
  • The third is a guess value for the CAGR (XIRR uses Newton-Raphson iteration, so it needs a guess value tostart the iteration).
XIRR is flexible, and can also given you the CAGR given investments and withdrawals at irregular dates. As an example, examine the screen of the Excel spreadsheet.

CAGR has some limitations that investors need to be aware of:
  • CAGR hides volatility by assuming that investments grow at a constant rate. Volatility is an important factor in managing investment risk and can’t be ignored.
  • It’s based on historical data, and can’t be relied on as the only method of predicting future value.
  • CAGR can be manipulated by picking the time period over which it is measured. An unscrupulous fund manager can, for example, choose a start date with an unusually low investment value.
You can download our excel file which contains examples demonstrated in this article and can use the same to find out CAGR of your investments.

CAGR Calculator excel file - Download

Note: You’ll need to enable the Analysis Toolpack to use the XIRR function.

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Check Fundamentals & Not Share Price while Buying Stocks

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We started Hidden Gems annual subscription in late 2010 followed by other services like Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days and Wealth-Builder, today we have a strong subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 8 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 157, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 3918 in January 2018, post severe correction in small and mid cap stocks over last 15 months, stock is down by -28% and is at Rs. 2809 today. Even after such a correction in stock price, Cera Sanitaryware is a 18-Bagger stock giving as on date returns of 1690% in 7 years from our initial recommendation and 525% return from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We continuously recommended Cera during last couple of years to our members at much higher levels.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Tide Water Oil share price was Rs. 1450 on 1st Jan'12 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 5800). Today the stock price is at Rs. 5051 giving absolute returns of 248% i.e. 3.5 times in 7 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. We suggested Buy on Tide Water Oil and many of our subscribers might not have invested in it thinking that they can buy hardly 2 shares by investing Rs. 12,000 but now those 2 shares are actually 8 shares post stock split and issue of bonus share and share price is near the recommended price.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like future growth prospects of the company, PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech was a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. Now it is hovering at just Rs 0.42 and trading is suspended in the stock. Those who purchased the stock during 2010 are in 99% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 is valued at merely Rs. 1,000 today, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 or Rs. 5 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 6 to 9 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Thursday, May 7, 2020

Know Your Risk Tolerance Before Investing in Equities

Dear Reader,

Stock prices were on rise till Jan'18 with significant increase in retail investors participation during last couple of years. As many new investors get into stock market during such times, its always important for an individual investor to understand what is his/her investment profile and risk tolerance.

In 2018, with lot of pessimism building around equity market due to global factors, deteriorating of domestic macros with rise in crude oil prices, weakening rupee and liquidity crisis with IL&FS default, we have seen severe correction in broader market with Mid & Small Cap Index falling by more than 24% and 33% respectively from all times high made in January this year. Stock prices of many mid and small cap companies have seen a steep fall in the range of 30% to 60% or even more from highs made in beginning of this year. In such situation every investor looking to create wealth is confused whether to exit, hold or enter the stocks and at what levels to enter or exit.

We always suggest our members not to time the market and follow a disciplinary approach while investing in equities with medium to long term perspective. Its important to know, whether you would be able to hold on your positions in case stock market tanks? However, such severe corrections do not come very often and hence must be considered as buying opportunity to aggressively add on good quality stocks at discounted prices keeping a long term view. If you are a long term investor, its wise to be greedy when others are fearful.

Historical data indicates that most of the new investors get fascinated towards stock market to make quick bucks and finally end up loosing their capital as they cant hold on their stocks in case market corrects and sell out their stocks in a panic. Stock market is not a money making machine, you need not to be greedy on rising market or fearful when stock market falls, simply buy right and sit tight having sufficient patience with you to see your investment growing over a period of time.

We strongly recommend our members (who are new to stock market) to kindly go through our Asset Allocation Questionnaire to understand your investment profile and risk tolerance.

By answering 15 questions about your risk preferences, you can find out your investment profile and risk tolerance. This score will determine the asset allocation that best suits your risk preferences, you can use our simple excel workbook - Saral Gyan Asset Allocation Questionnaire which suggests the optimum split between cash, bonds and stocks.

The questions are simple to answer, with options provided to select answers using drop-down list, check boxes and radio buttons. They are designed to determine your tolerance to investment volatility, the size of your existing financial cushion, your time horizon, and what you want your investment to achieve.


Saral Gyan Investment Risk Profile & Asset Allocation workbook - Download

The questions asked in the excel workbook includes:

1.What is your total annual income before tax (including investment dividends but not including employment bonuses)?
2.How many sources of income do you have?
3.What is the value of your liquid (or investable assets)? This includes cash plus any easily sold investments like Gold, Bonds and Stocks.
4.What yearly income do you want from this investment portfolio?
5.How long do you intend to hold this investment portfolio?
6.What would you do if your investment portfolio fell in value by one-fifth (20%) over the course of 12 months?
7.What characteristics would you prefer your investments to have?
8.Do you prefer investments which have low volatility and low return, or investments which have high volatility and high returns?
9.What do you want this investment portfolio to do? Preserve capital, generate income, generate income with some capital appreciation etc.
10.What volatility (or risk) are you prepared to tolerate?
11.In the next five years, what percentage (if any) of the portfolio do you plant to sell to realize cash?
12.What kind of investments do you currently own, or would prefer to own? Domestic, international, aggressive, fixed income etc.
13.Assuming a time horizon of ten years, what annual return do you want?
14.Who do you normally get investment advice from?
15.How would you rate your current skill in managing investments?

Your answer to each question is rated with a score. The total score is used to suggest an asset allocation that is appropriate to your risk preferences; the workbook suggests a split between:

■ Cash
■ Bonds (high-yield, long-term, intermediate and international)
■ Stocks (large cap, mid cap, small cap and micro cap stocks)

You can also find out what kind of investor you’re considered; an income investor, a long term investor, an aggressive, moderate or conservative investor. Really helpful, do it yourself.


IMP Note: As our excel workbook is macro enabled file, do enable the macro's while using the file. If you do not understand macro's, do not worry. once you open the file, excel automatically ask you whether you want to enable or disable macro's, simply click on enable and proceed.

If you have patience and want to add extra power in your portfolio, start investing some portion of your savings in fundamentally strong small and mid cap companies - Hidden Gems & Value Picks.   

Time has shown that smart investors have made their fortune by investing in equities in long term. None other asset class can match giving you such extra ordinary returns. Yes, its important for you to invest in right set of companies at right price with medium to long term perspective. If you think to invest in stocks for period of 3 months or 6 months, we suggest you to stay out of stock market because you are not investing, you are betting on volatility of stock market which could be risky.Wish you happy & safe investing!

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan.