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Showing posts with label Wealth Creation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wealth Creation. Show all posts

Sunday, November 13, 2022

Grab ebook - How to Grow your Savings? for Free

 A complete guide to help you ensure, you get the best returns on your investments from equities.

eBook How to Grow your Savings?eBook - How to Grow your Savings? will provide you important & relevant information supported by facts & figures to help you grow your savings by investing in stocks to succeed:

Key Mantra’s:

1. Adopt discipline approach for Savings
2. Find out the ways to get passive income
3. Set your financial goals & start Investing
4. Do invest in equities for long term

Getting the most out of this ebook is simple, “How to Grow your Savings?” requires practical approach. Execute your learning experience in your day to day life by managing your finances effectively and achieve your long term goals.

How to Grow your Savings?Traditionally, Indians are Savers. The savings rate is as high as 30 percent. If not a direct savings in the bank, the money goes into a fixed deposit, gold or real estate. That trend might change soon if more people invest in stocks, which have outperformed every other asset class from 2001 to 2007 and later from 2012 to 2017.

Stocks have outperformed other asset classes by as much as 60 percent, yet only 3 percent of Indian population directly invests in stocks.

The main reasons for this is a lack of knowledge, awareness as well as unethical practices by a small minority of participants who encourage regular churning based on tips and rumours without giving proper financial planning to investors.

If someone invested in a State Bank of India fixed deposit account in 2001, he or she would have earned an 8 percent return per year. If the same person invested in State Bank of India stock, he or she would have a total return of 3,000 percent as the stock rose from 20 rupees to high of 620 rupees in 2022 which does not include dividend income over last 20 years which is much higher than the initial stock price.

Though Indians continue to be underinvested in the stock market there is more interest coming in from all corners. The number of active demat accounts in the country jumped by 63 percent to almost 9 crores in financial year 2021-22. On an average, 26 lakh new demat accounts are opened every month. Recent transparency measures should also bring more people in. The stock market will no longer be treated as a gamble but will be put on par with real estate and gold.

The irony is that even though stock markets as a long term asset class have given the highest returns, short term trading in futures and options has also caused the maximum losses. The maximum numbers of bankruptcies were caused due to the stock market crash in 2008-2009 amongst high risk speculative traders.

Power of Investing in Equity Market

Now, Just Imagine...

How much can you make in 40 years by just investing Rs.10,000 initially in any of financial instruments?

Take a wild guess?

Let us look at the real example.

If you have subscribed for 100 shares of "X" company with a face value of Rs. 100 in 1980.

• In 1981 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 200 shares
• In 1985 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 400 shares
• In 1986 company split the share to Rs. 10 = you have 4,000 shares
• In 1987 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 8,000 shares
• In 1989 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 16,000 shares
• In 1992 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 32,000 shares
• In 1995 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 64,000 shares
• In 1997 company declared 1:2 bonus = you have 1,92,000 shares
• In 1999 company split the share to Rs. 2 = you have 9,60,000 shares
• In 2004 company declared 1:2 bonus = you have 28,80,000 shares
• In 2005 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 57,60,000 shares
• In 2010 company declared 3:2 bonus = you have 96,00,000 shares
• In 2017 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 1,92,00,000 shares
• In 2019 company declared 3:1 bonus = you have 2,56,00,000 shares

Today, you have whopping 25.6 million shares of the company.

Any guess about the company?

(Hint: It’s an Indian IT Company)

Any guess about the present valuation of Rs. 10,000 invested in 1980?

The company which has made fortune of millions is "WIPRO" with present valuation of 1,000+ crores (excluding dividend payments) for Rs. 10,000 invested in 1980.

Unbelievable, isn’t it? But it’s a Fact! Investing in companies with good fundamentals and proven track record can give far superior returns compared to any other asset class (real estate, precious metals, bonds etc) in a long run.

Will Wipro provide similar returns in next 42 years? Probably not, it’s already an IT giant.

You need to explore companies in micro, small and mid cap space with good track record and stay invested to create wealth in a long term. 

Let's take another example of little known company - Mayur Uniquoters 

Mayur Uniquoters which we recommended 10 years back is a 9-Bagger stock for our Hidden Gems members. We recommended Buy on Mayur Uniquoter on 31 March 2012 at price of Rs. 56 (adjusted price after 2 bonus issues and stock split in last 10 years, actual recommended price was Rs. 448) and today it’s at Rs. 475 giving absolute returns of 750%. However, we missed to buy it early. You might be surprised to know that Mayur Uniquoter is a 160-Bagger stock for investors who invested in it 14 years back. Investment of Rs. 1 lakh in Mayur Uniquoters in Jan 2009 is valued at more than Rs. 1 Crores and 60 lakhs today. The company has posted strong growth YoY and rewarded share holders in big way, Mayur Uniquoters was trading at Rs. 3 (bonus issues and split adjusted price) with market cap of merely 13 crores in Jan 2009, today market cap of the company is 2,090 crores.

Mayur Uniquoters is still a great value stock considering its consistent performance and leadership position in artificial leather industry and robust demand for its products by esteemed clients from auto and footwear industry.

It is a garden out there and one need to simply provide sufficient time to grow his quality seeds to get the fruits. One has to know what he is doing and has to be cognizant about it. With a little research and patience stock market investments can yield maximum returns.

So, how will you grow your savings? What are you investing in?

Read complete e-book "How to Grow your Savings?", its not only a must read for beginners but also for experienced investors. "How to Grow your Savings" will definitely help you to get an edge over others by understanding the basic of investments and importance of equities in a long run to generate income and create wealth. 

Below are the chapters covered in  ebook "How to grow your Savings?"

PART I: VALUE OF MONEY 
  • Inflation
  • Past & Future Value of Money
PART II: INCOME, EXPENDITURES & SAVINGS 
  • Income Expenditure Ratio 
  • Passive Income 
  • Tips & Tricks to Save Money 
  • Saving Strategies
PART III: SAVING & INVESTING 
  • Difference between Saving & Investing
  • Understanding Your Assets
  • Investing in Different Asset class
  • Pay Off Your Debt or Invest
  • Power of Compounding 
  • Benefits of Long Term Investing
  • 10 Key Investing Mantra’s
PART IV: FINANCIAL PLANNING 
  • Financial Planning 
  • Managing your Finances 
  • Making your own Investment Plan 
  • Your Investment Profile & Risk Tolerance
PART V: BUILDING AN EQUITY PORTFOLIO 
  • Investing in Equities
  • Investing in Bull & Bear Market
  • Invest in Individual Stock or Mutual Fund
  • Creating a Stock Portfolio
  • Investment Portfolio Mistakes to Avoid
  • Importance of Stock Diversification
  • Investing for Growth, Yield & Income
  • Facts & Benefits of Investing in Small Companies
PART VI: EQUITIES & RISKS 
  • Investing Risks Vs Rewards
  • Understanding Stock Market Risks
  • Different Type of Investing Risks
  • Managing Investment Risks
  • The Bulls, The Bears & The Farm
PART VII: EQUITIES & THE TIME FACTOR 
  • Stock Investing & The Age Factor
  • Don’t Count on Stocks for Short Term Goals
  • Characteristics of Successful Investors
  • Don’t try to Time Bottom of Stock Market
  • Investing in Stocks for Regular Income & Long Term Growth
  • Investing Checklist – 10 Most Important Element
eBook How to Grow your Savings?Saral Gyan's 89 pages e-book How to Grow your Savings? was priced at Rs. 599. However, we decided to share our e-book for free with our readers to help them understand the power of saving and investing in equities to achieve financial freedom in long run. To receive our e-book, simply click on below link and fill out the form to receive our e-book directly in your inbox.



Do contact us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Thursday, October 20, 2022

How to Value a Stock - Cheap or Expensive?

Dear Reader,

If you’re new to investing, learning how to choose stocks and investing in the stock market can be overwhelming. Probably the largest mistake that young investors make is to look at the price of a stock as a measure of its worth. In fact, the price of a stock is virtually worthless when trying to value a company.

So what metrics should investors use when evaluating a potential stock investment opportunity? While there are numerous factors to take into consideration, the most popular and well-known metric is known as the price to earnings ratio, or the P/E ratio. But before we get into explaining this ratio, let’s look at why the price of the stock doesn’t tell the whole story.

Stock Prices – Cheap Vs. Expensive

Think about something in your life that you know very well. Maybe you’re obsessed with computer upgrades and performance. You know everything there is to know about computers and when you go to a computer store; when you look at the prices and the specs, you truly know what represents a bargain.

If you were helping a friend pick out a computer, you might tell them that a computer on sale for Rs 20,000 may be a better bargain than a computer on sale for Rs. 18,000. Maybe the Rs. 20,000 computer has a bigger screen, more storage space, and Rs. 5000 of preloaded software on it. With the Rs. 18,000 computer, not only is the hardware pretty shoddy, but there is also no preloaded software, meaning you’ll have to shell out extra money once you buy the computer. You might say “you get more bang for your buck” with the Rs. 20,000 computer. It is this same line of thinking that should be applied to stocks.

Unfortunately, many young investors do not apply the same logic to stock picking. Instead, they look at a Rs. 1800 stock like TCS and call it expensive. So they head to a little known penny stock that is selling for Rs. 0.50 and buy it up like it’s pure gold. The fact of the matter is that if you only have Rs. 1800, there’s a good chance that you’ll make more money purchasing 1 share of TCS rather than 3,600 shares of that cheap company. Why? Because TCS is a much more stable company with not only a proven track record of making investors money, but also strong growth potential.

The P/E Ratio Defined

Now that we’ve fixed the flaw in the young investor’s logic, let’s look at how to measure value. It’s a little more complicated to evaluate stocks than it is to evaluate computers since there are so many different factors involved.

However, there is one metric which, while it doesn’t make up the entire story, offers an important piece of the puzzle when valuing a company: the price/earnings ratio, often referred to as the P/E ratio or P/E multiple. This ratio, while only one of many that sophisticated investors use, is the most popular and discussed ratio in many investment books.

So how does the P/E ratio work? Think of it this way: let’s say you are considering investing in two public companies, both of which are selling for Rs. 200 per share today. One way of deciding which company to invest your money in is examining how much you will need to pay for Rs. 10 of earnings from each company. If last year, Company A earned Rs. 50 per share and Company B earned only Rs. 40 for share, it would intuitively make sense to choose Company A over Company B since it represents a cheaper trading opportunity. Without even realizing it, you’ve made this decision by calculating each company’s P/E ratios.

The P/E ratio is calculated by taking the current price and dividing it by the earnings per share. In the example above, you would take the price of Rs. 200 and divide by Rs. 50 for Company A and Rs. 40 for Company B, yielding ratios of 4x and 5x, respectively. If you’re not good with math, you can also easily find the P/E ratio in the fundamental analysis section of your broker’s research screens for the stock you’re reviewing or on various stock market investment news and research sites.

Disadvantages of the P/E Ratio

While the P/E ratio is a valuable metric for investors, you don’t want to make the mistake of thinking that a P/E ratio alone tells the whole story. Here are the main limitations of the P/E ratio:

1. Healthy P/E ratios may differ between industries: The concept of using a set P/E ratio to determine if a stock is overpriced fails to take into account the individual nature of the underlying company. Stocks in high-growth industries like the technology industry tend to have higher P/E ratios. On the other hand, some industries such as utility companies tend to trade at much lower multiples. Before you can decide if a stock is under or overpriced, you need to take into consideration the industry in which it operates. Continuing with the example above, let’s say Company B was a high-growth tech company forecasted to earn Rs. 100 per share next year and Rs. 150 per share the following year, while Company A was a low-growth oil company that was forecasted to earn Rs. 60 per share next year and Rs. 70 per share the following year. Now that you have a fuller picture of the two companies, it becomes clear that Company B would in fact be the better company to invest in due to its massive growth potential. Company B’s stock price will likely skyrocket if the forecasts are correct, while Company A’s stock price may not budge by much over the next couple of years. Thus, by ignoring other aspects of the company, an investor might have falsely assumed that Company A represented the more valuable stock opportunity.

2. Fails to consider the debt of a company: The price of a stock reflects the equity value of a company. However, it is also important to consider how much debt the company holds. An investor should never ignore a company’s debt position when buying a stock since debt is a strong indicator of a company’s financial health and future.

3. Earnings can be manipulated easily: Clever accountants have a million and one ways to make companies look more attractive. This can involve changing depreciation schedules, using different inventory management strategies, and including non-recurring gains. These strategies are not limited to corrupt organizations, as firms are given some legal flexibility in how they choose to report their earnings. As a result, because companies have an incentive to make earnings look as attractive as possible, P/E ratios can be presented as being artificially low.

4. Growth companies trade at higher P/E ratios: Since P/E ratios represent not only a company’s current financial situation but also it’s future growth potential, growth stocks trade at significantly higher P/E multiples than value companies. Thus, without understanding what type of company you are considering as an investment, you might carelessly overlook some valuable growth companies simply because of their P/E ratios. In fact, some of the biggest winners of all time have been companies with high P/E ratios. According to Investors Business Daily, in a recent analysis, the top 95 companies had an average P/E ratio of 39 before gaining momentum and reaching an average P/E ratio of 87 at their peak. Yet according to the models of most investors who rely solely on P/E ratios, all of these companies would have been ruled out as being overpriced.

5. False assumption that low P/E ratios represent cheap trading opportunities: Many investors assume that a company trading at a P/E ratio must represent great value. As we know, because of many of the factors stated above, low P/E ratios do not necessarily make the best investments. For example, Suzlon was a company that was trading at single digit P/E ratios before it crashed.

P/E ratios are a valuable tool for investors, but they are not sufficient to identify the feasibility of an investment unless used in combination with other metrics and company characteristics.

Regardless of your opinion on the P/E ratio, you should always examine other ratios as well before buying a stock. These metrics, which help investors evaluate other aspects of a company, include Enterprise Value/EBITDA, Enterprise Value/EBIT, Enterprise Value/Revenue, Price/Cash Flow and Price/Book Ratio.

Final Word

The P/E ratio is a great start to understanding a company’s value proposition as a potential investment. With that said, don’t forget that there are many other ratios and factors to consider other than the P/E ratio. The P/E ratio is just one piece of the puzzle. And if you only take one lesson from this post, remember this nugget of information: the price of a stock is not an indicator to identify value of it!

If you have patience and want to add extra power in your portfolio, start investing some portion of your savings in fundamentally strong small and mid cap companies - Hidden Gems and Value Picks.

Moreover, if you have invested in stocks and believe that your investments are not performing well, subscribe to our Wealth-Builder service and get your portfolio reviewed by us. We will review fundamentals of the companies you are holding and guide you which stocks to hold and which to exit. We will also review your equity investments across sectors and companies to ensure that your portfolio allocation is right and outperforms major indices giving you better returns in medium to long term.

We do update our members in terms of profit booking / exits depending upon various factors like overall Industry / Sector outlook, fundamentals of the company, management action plan and annual performance in terms of top line, bottom line, operating margins and other important parameters.

Wish you happy & safe Investing!

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan.

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Why Share Price is Not Important while Buying Stocks?

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We have a subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 10 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 157, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 6450 last year and currently trading around Rs. 5500, Cera is a 40-Bagger stock in 11 years from our initial recommendation and is a 12X stock from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We held Cera for long term and suggested complete profit booking to our members in the stock around 3500 - 4000 levels in 2017.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Rajratan Global Wires share price was Rs. 54.77 on 30 Nov 2017 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 639). Today the stock price is at Rs. 1225 giving absolute returns of 2137% i.e. more than 22 times within 5 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. 

We suggested Buy on Rajratan Global Wires at price of Rs. 639 under Hidden Gems service on 30 Nov 2017 and if any of our subscribers have not invested in the company thinking he/she can get only 15 shares by investing Rs. 10,000 has made a big mistake. Today those 15 shares have increased to 175 shares on account of bonus shares issued by the company in the ratio of 4:3 in 2019 and later stock split of 1 shares into 5 shares (face value of Rs. 10 to Rs 2 per share) in March 2022. And the current share price of Rs. 1225 is still very high for those who looks at low price stock. We advised partial profit booking in Rajratan Global Wires to our Hidden Gems recently at Rs. 1300, booking returns of 2270% (almost 24X) in period of 5 years.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like future growth prospects of the company, PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech was a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. After 10 years, it was hovering at just Rs 1.30 and today its not operational any more. Those who purchased the stock during 2010 are in 100% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 was valued at merely Rs. 2,000 in 2020, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 or Rs. 5 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 5 to 10 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

If you wish to invest in fundamentally strong micro, small and mid cap companies which can give you far superior returns compared to major indices like Sensex or Nifty in long term and help you creating wealth, you can join our services like Hidden GemsValue Picks & Wealth-Builder.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that either under-researched or not covered by other stock brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our members on our past recommendation suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

At Saral Gyan, team of equity analysts keep on evaluating small and mid cap stocks to explore the best Hidden Gems and Value Picks of stock market. Saral Gyan - Nano Champs, Hidden Gems and Value Picks are the micro, small and mid cap stocks with high probability to become multi-bagger stocks in future and a path for our investors to create wealth through equity investments in a long run.

Please write to us at sales@saralgyan.in / info@saralgyan.in in case of any queries.

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan

Wednesday, August 4, 2021

6 Important Rules for Picking Multibagger Stocks

Important Rules to follow while Picking Multibagger Stocks


multibagger stocks
During last decade post global financial crisis of 2009, there are numerous companies which have multiplied investor’s capital delivering super-duper multibagger returns. Similarly, there are plenty of companies which have destroyed investor’s capital to almost zero over last 10 years.

Hence, its important to know the basic criteria’s which make a company a right investment candidate with potential to multiply wealth in long term.

Rules to follow while Identifying Multibagger Stocks

Below are the 6 basic rules which we must follow to pick right companies having multibagger potential.

1. Quality management with high integrity

Alignment of management interest with minority shareholders is one of the key parameter. High standard of corporate governance ensures that company is not involved in any wrong doings. Proper and timely disclosures of shareholder related information by the companies build trust over time. Past track record of promoters, disclosures and dividend pay-out history can help us to check on this crucial parameter.


If the management is not honest, will they want to share the goodies with you? No, they will look for the first opportunity to siphon off the profits and pull the wool over your eyes. We have seen how the investors of LEEL Electricals have lost 95% of their capital over last 1 year due to personal enrichment of LEEL promoters by siphoning off company's profit from the sale of its consumer durable division to Havells.

2. High ROE & ROCE – Efficient use of capital

Return on Equity (ROE) measures a company's profitability by comparing its net income to shareholders equity (book value). ROE is a speed limit on self-funded growth (company's profit). That is, a company cant grow earnings faster than its ROE without raising cash by borrowing or selling more shares. For instance, a 15% ROE means that the company can’t grow earnings faster than 15% annually by relying only on profit to fuel growth. ROCE measures the overall returns for all stakeholders and is a relatively good measure of the overall efficiency of the company. A consistently low ROCE signifies that there is something inherently wrong with the business or the company.

Wealth creator stocks usually have very high ROE and the ROCE relative to the rest of the industry. Typically, companies with high ROCE and ROE would also be generating positive free cash flows consistently. Increasing ROE and ROCE every passing year with low / negligible debt on books is one of the key aspect in spotting multibagger stocks.

3. Low Debt and Free Cash Flows

Its important to learn the lesson from financial crisis of 2011 and now of 2019 that companies with high debt simply get slaughtered. While debt is not bad in case if the company is able to borrow at a lower rate and deploy it in its business at a higher rate as the operating leverage works in its favour, however excessive debt with high interest and repayment obligations can crunch the stock in times of downturn. So, as a long-term investment philosophy, it is best to steer clear of high-debt companies.

Recent episode of stock prices falling liking nine pins of ADAG companies (Reliance Power, Reliance Infra, Reliance Com, Reliance Capital), Essel group companies, Jain Irrigation etc indicates how unbearable high debt burden on books can destroy investors wealth in shortest span of time.

4. Asset Light Business Model - No High Capex Requirements

We know the demerits of investing in stocks like Suzlon & GMR Infra which have an insatiable appetite for more and more capital. To feed their perennial hunger, these companies dilute their equity by making FPOs, GDRs & FCCBs resulting in total destruction of shareholders wealth. This is the simple reason why we do not see multi-bagger opportunities from sectors like metals, infrastructure and utilities because of the capital intensive business model which leads to very high leverage and low return ratios.

Companies should be lean and mean requiring minimal capital but generating huge returns with free cash flows which can be used not only to reward shareholders but also to expand business in future. It is not necessary that company should be a zero-debt company as some amount of leverage can actually improve shareholders returns.

5. The Scale of Opportunity & Non-cyclical Business

Multi-bagger stocks are created because they are able to scale the opportunity rapidly. Titan Industries is a great example. In 2003-04, Titan was a small company with market capital of 500 crores. As on date, its a large cap with more than 1 lakh crores market cap. The fact that India is a booming marketplace of 132 crores consumers means that most products and services have a head start at trying to scale up their activities.

One key factor that creates value in the stock market is consistent growth across economic & market cycles. While markets values growth, it also pay higher premium on consistency in growth. Most of multi-baggers of past like Asian Paints, Titan, Page Industries, United Spirits, Marico, Aurobindo Pharma are typically high growth companies in non-cyclical businesses. It is extremely rare to find a multi-bagger in a typical commodity business like steel, aluminium or oil.

6. Valuations & Future Growth Prospects

Most investors are obsessed about valuations, refusing to buy any stock that is expensive. However, one must remember that expensive is a relative term. If a stock is compounding at 25% on an annual basis, paying a price to earning multiple (P/E ratio) of 30 may be very reasonable. A stock like Nestle or HUL, for instance, has always been expensive. However, a great company with an impeccable pedigree may not always be a good stock to buy. This could be due to the fact that most of the triggers are already in the price and future growth potential does not justify the valuations. The PEG ratio (which is PE ratio divided by sustainable growth) is a simple way to measure valuation relative to growth.

But it is equally important to consider other parameters like financial ratios and brands that the company has created which can go a long way in determining potential valuation. A particular company may look expensive to an investor who have a 2 years horizon but may be a screaming buy for investor who wish to hold it for next 5 to 7 years.

There is no guarantee that the above mentioned parameters would always help investors identify multi-baggers, but these parameters will surely help investors to invest in right set of companies and avoiding those which may end up being value destructors. Moreover, we can learn by following key traits of successful investors who have created enormous wealth in past.

Peter Lynch 2 Minutes Drill to Shortlist Potential Multibaggers

The key parameters involved in Peter Lynch’s ‘two minute drill’ are:

1. P/E Ratio: avoid stocks with excessively high P/E
2. Debt/Equity Ratio: should be low
3. Net Cash per Share: should be high
4. Dividend & Payout Ratio: should be adequate
5. Inventory levels: lower the better

Stay away from companies which are being actively tracked, followed & invested in by large institutional investors. News about buy back of shares or internal stakeholders increasing their stakes should be construed as positive.

Checks specific to Fast Growers:

1. The star product forms a majority of the company’s business.
2. Company’s success in more than one places to prove that expansion will work.
3. Still opportunity for penetration.
4. Stock is selling at its P/E ratio or near the growth rate.
5. Expansion is speeding up Or stable

One must judiciously walk the tightrope between the unquestioning belief that made the stock to be held for so long and the fear of the end from nose-diving prices due to a one-off bad year. The key is to always keep revisiting the story & ask some pertinent questions like ‘What would really keep them growing?’, ‘What is their next offering? or ‘Are their products & services still in vogue?’ It is here, that one must track the point of time when the phase 2 of the firm’s expansion comes to an end. This is usually the dead-end for organizations as success is difficult to be replicated. Unless, innovation happens, downfall is imminent & thus, an exit is necessary. P/E of these stocks is drummed up to unrealistically high levels by the madness of crowd towards the end. One must keep one’s eyes & ears open to signs, which mark the end of the road for these fast growers. A great case in point is Polaroid which had its P/E bid up to 50, only to be rendered obsolete later by new technologies.

A sure shot sign of a decline is a company which is everywhere! Such a company would simply find no place to expand any further. Sooner, rather than later, such a company would see its ‘Manhattans’ of earnings reduced to ‘plateaus’ of little or no growth, simply because no space is left to expand further.

1.The quarterly sales decline for existing stores.
2. New stores opening, though results are disappointing: weakening demand, over supply.
3. High level of attrition at the top level.
4. Company pitching heavily to institutional investors talking about what Peter Lynch calls ‘diversification’.
5. Stock trading at a P/E of 30 or more, when most optimistic estimates of earning growth are lower than 15-20%, thus, unable to justify the high price.

Fast Growers, which pay, are ephemeral & one misses them more often than not. It is a High Risk & High Gain Category of Stocks. One must remember along the classic risk & return principle, that when one loses, one loses big! So, if you are in the quest for magnificent returns, a Fast Grower can be your bet provided you know when to bid Goodbye!

Owning Multibagger Stocks which can multiply Investments in Future

The number of small-cap stocks is large and finding a quality stock that can give high returns over a long period is tough even for equity analysts. One reason is that such stocks usually have a short history and are not tracked by many analysts and brokerage houses. Then there are risks such as low liquidity, governance concerns and competition from larger players.

Scores of once small companies have over the years grown big, giving investors a 30-50 percent annual return over 10-15 years and creating fortunes for investors. However, more often than not, we find ourselves at the wrong side of the fence and regret our inability to spot such stocks on time.

Buying Strategy for Small Caps

1. Go for companies with low debt ratio (preferably less than one)

2. A high interest coverage ratio (above 3x) and a high return on equity are big advantages

3. Avoid companies with huge liabilities in the form of foreign currency convertible bonds / external commercial borrowings

4. Look at the quality of the management, its governance standards and how investor-friendly the company is.

5. Mid-cap and small-cap companies can be future market leaders, so be patient with your investments

Those who wish to invest in small-cap stocks should do so only if they have a long investment horizon and tolerance for volatility. Small-cap stocks suffer the steepest falls in a bear market and rise the most in a bull market. An investor should stay invested for at least three-five years to allow their portfolio to gain from at least one bull run. If you are looking for multibaggers, stock must have high growth rates along with expanding PE ratios. The price we pay for the stock is important as it will determine whether there is enough scope left for a PE expansion to take place. 

Benefits of Investing in Small Caps

1. Huge growth potential: The first and the most important advantage that a small cap stock gives you is their high growth potential. Since these are small companies they have great scope to rise as opposed to already large companies.

2. Low Valuations: Usually small cap stocks are available at lower valuations compared to mid & large caps. Hence, if you invest in good small cap companies at initial stage and wait for couple of years,  you will see price appreciation not only because of growth in top line and bottom line but also due to rerating which happens with increase in market capital of the company.

3. Early Entrance Advantage: Most of the fund house and institutions do not own small caps with low market cap due to less liquidity which make it difficult for them to own sufficient no. of shares. This gives retail investors an opportunity to be an early entrant to accumulate such companies shares. When company grows in market cap by delivering consistent growth and becomes more liquid, entry of fund houses and institutions push the share prices up giving maximum gains to early entrants.  

4. Under–Researched: Small cap stocks are often given the least attention by the analysts who are more interested in the large companies. Hence, they are often under - recognized and could be under-priced thus giving the investor the opportunity to benefit from these low prices.

5. Emerging Sectors: In a developing economy where there are several new business models and sectors emerging, the opportunity to pick new leaders can be hugely beneficial. Also the disruptive models in the new age is leading to more churn and faster growth amongst the nimble footed smaller companies.

Concerns while Investing in Small Caps

1. Risk: The first and the most important disadvantage a small cap stock is the high level of risk it exposes an investor to. If a small cap company has the potential to rise quickly, it even has the potential to fall. Owing to its small size, it may not be able to sustain itself thereby leading the investor into great loses. After all, the bigger the company, the harder it is for it to fall.

2. Volatility: Small cap stocks are also more volatile as compared to large cap stocks. This is mainly because they have limited reserves against hard times. Also, it in the event of an economic crisis or any change in the company administration could lead to investors dis-investing thereby leading to a fall in prices.

3. Liquidity: Since investing in small cap stocks is mainly a decision depending upon one’s ability to undertake risk, a small cap stock can often become illiquid. Hence, one should not depend upon them for an important life goal.

4. Lack of information: As opposed to a large cap company, the analysts do not spend enough time studying the small cap companies. Hence, there isn’t enough information available to the investor so that he can study the company and decide about it future prospects.

Be a disciplined investor who keep on investing in systematic way irrespective of market conditions and not an emotional investor who usually buy stocks during bull phase when stock prices are moving higher because of greed and sell them in panic during bear phase due to severe fall in stock prices, making mistake of buying high and selling low.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Thursday, July 15, 2021

How to Identify Stocks with Multibagger Potential?

Important Rules to follow while Picking Multibagger Stocks

Multibagger Small Cap Stocks
During last decade post global financial crisis of 2009, there are numerous companies which have multiplied investor’s capital delivering super-duper multibagger returns. Similarly, there are plenty of companies which have destroyed investor’s capital to almost zero over last 10 years.

Hence, its important to know the basic criteria’s which make a company a right investment candidate with potential to multiply wealth in long term.

Rules to follow while Identifying Multibagger Stocks

Below are the 6 basic rules which we must follow to pick right companies having multibagger potential.

1. Quality management with high integrity

Alignment of management interest with minority shareholders is one of the key parameter. High standard of corporate governance ensures that company is not involved in any wrong doings. Proper and timely disclosures of shareholder related information by the companies build trust over time. Past track record of promoters, disclosures and dividend pay-out history can help us to check on this crucial parameter.


If the management is not honest, will they want to share the goodies with you? No, they will look for the first opportunity to siphon off the profits and pull the wool over your eyes. We have seen how the investors of LEEL Electricals have lost 95% of their capital over last 1 year due to personal enrichment of LEEL promoters by siphoning off company's profit from the sale of its consumer durable division to Havells.

2. High ROE & ROCE – Efficient use of capital

Return on Equity (ROE) measures a company's profitability by comparing its net income to shareholders equity (book value). ROE is a speed limit on self-funded growth (company's profit). That is, a company cant grow earnings faster than its ROE without raising cash by borrowing or selling more shares. For instance, a 15% ROE means that the company can’t grow earnings faster than 15% annually by relying only on profit to fuel growth. ROCE measures the overall returns for all stakeholders and is a relatively good measure of the overall efficiency of the company. A consistently low ROCE signifies that there is something inherently wrong with the business or the company.

Wealth creator stocks usually have very high ROE and the ROCE relative to the rest of the industry. Typically, companies with high ROCE and ROE would also be generating positive free cash flows consistently. Increasing ROE and ROCE every passing year with low / negligible debt on books is one of the key aspect in spotting multibagger stocks.

3. Low Debt and Free Cash Flows

Its important to learn the lesson from financial crisis of 2011 and now of 2019 that companies with high debt simply get slaughtered. While debt is not bad in case if the company is able to borrow at a lower rate and deploy it in its business at a higher rate as the operating leverage works in its favour, however excessive debt with high interest and repayment obligations can crunch the stock in times of downturn. So, as a long-term investment philosophy, it is best to steer clear of high-debt companies.

Episode of stock prices falling liking nine pins in 2019 of ADAG companies (Reliance Power, Reliance Infra, Reliance Com, Reliance Capital), Essel group companies, Jain Irrigation etc indicates how unbearable high debt burden on books can destroy investors wealth in shortest span of time.

4. Asset Light Business Model - No High Capex Requirements

We know the demerits of investing in stocks like Suzlon & GMR Infra which have an insatiable appetite for more and more capital. To feed their perennial hunger, these companies dilute their equity by making FPOs, GDRs & FCCBs resulting in total destruction of shareholders wealth. This is the simple reason why we do not see multi-bagger opportunities from sectors like metals, infrastructure and utilities because of the capital intensive business model which leads to very high leverage and low return ratios.

Companies should be lean and mean requiring minimal capital but generating huge returns with free cash flows which can be used not only to reward shareholders but also to expand business in future. It is not necessary that company should be a zero-debt company as some amount of leverage can actually improve shareholders returns.

5. The Scale of Opportunity & Non-cyclical Business

Multi-bagger stocks are created because they are able to scale the opportunity rapidly. Titan Industries is a great example. In 2003-04, Titan was a small company with market capital of 500 crores. As on date, its a large cap with more than 2 lakh crores market cap. The fact that India is a booming marketplace of 135 crores consumers means that most products and services have a head start at trying to scale up their activities.

One key factor that creates value in the stock market is consistent growth across economic & market cycles. While markets values growth, it also pay higher premium on consistency in growth. Most of multi-baggers of past like Asian Paints, Titan, Page Industries, United Spirits, Marico, Aurobindo Pharma are typically high growth companies in non-cyclical businesses. It is extremely rare to find a multi-bagger in a typical commodity business like steel, aluminium or oil.

6. Valuations & Future Growth Prospects

Most investors are obsessed about valuations, refusing to buy any stock that is expensive. However, one must remember that expensive is a relative term. If a stock is compounding at 25% on an annual basis, paying a price to earning multiple (P/E ratio) of 30 may be very reasonable. A stock like Nestle or HUL, for instance, has always been expensive. However, a great company with an impeccable pedigree may not always be a good stock to buy. This could be due to the fact that most of the triggers are already in the price and future growth potential does not justify the valuations. The PEG ratio (which is PE ratio divided by sustainable growth) is a simple way to measure valuation relative to growth.

But it is equally important to consider other parameters like financial ratios and brands that the company has created which can go a long way in determining potential valuation. A particular company may look expensive to an investor who have a 2 years horizon but may be a screaming buy for investor who wish to hold it for next 5 to 7 years.

There is no guarantee that the above mentioned parameters would always help investors identify multi-baggers, but these parameters will surely help investors to invest in right set of companies and avoiding those which may end up being value destructors. Moreover, we can learn by following key traits of successful investors who have created enormous wealth in past.

Peter Lynch 2 Minutes Drill to Shortlist Potential Multibaggers

The key parameters involved in Peter Lynch’s ‘two minute drill’ are:

1. P/E Ratio: avoid stocks with excessively high P/E
2. Debt/Equity Ratio: should be low
3. Net Cash per Share: should be high
4. Dividend & Payout Ratio: should be adequate
5. Inventory levels: lower the better

Stay away from companies which are being actively tracked, followed & invested in by large institutional investors. News about buy back of shares or internal stakeholders increasing their stakes should be construed as positive.

Checks specific to Fast Growers:

1. The star product forms a majority of the company’s business.
2. Company’s success in more than one places to prove that expansion will work.
3. Still opportunity for penetration.
4. Stock is selling at its P/E ratio or near the growth rate.
5. Expansion is speeding up Or stable

One must judiciously walk the tightrope between the unquestioning belief that made the stock to be held for so long and the fear of the end from nose-diving prices due to a one-off bad year. The key is to always keep revisiting the story & ask some pertinent questions like ‘What would really keep them growing?’, ‘What is their next offering? or ‘Are their products & services still in vogue?’ It is here, that one must track the point of time when the phase 2 of the firm’s expansion comes to an end. This is usually the dead-end for organizations as success is difficult to be replicated. Unless, innovation happens, downfall is imminent & thus, an exit is necessary. P/E of these stocks is drummed up to unrealistically high levels by the madness of crowd towards the end. One must keep one’s eyes & ears open to signs, which mark the end of the road for these fast growers. A great case in point is Polaroid which had its P/E bid up to 50, only to be rendered obsolete later by new technologies.

A sure shot sign of a decline is a company which is everywhere! Such a company would simply find no place to expand any further. Sooner, rather than later, such a company would see its ‘Manhattans’ of earnings reduced to ‘plateaus’ of little or no growth, simply because no space is left to expand further.

1.The quarterly sales decline for existing stores.
2. New stores opening, though results are disappointing: weakening demand, over supply.
3. High level of attrition at the top level.
4. Company pitching heavily to institutional investors talking about what Peter Lynch calls ‘diversification’.
5. Stock trading at a P/E of 30 or more, when most optimistic estimates of earning growth are lower than 15-20%, thus, unable to justify the high price.

Fast Growers, which pay, are ephemeral & one misses them more often than not. It is a High Risk & High Gain Category of Stocks. One must remember along the classic risk & return principle, that when one loses, one loses big! So, if you are in the quest for magnificent returns, a Fast Grower can be your bet provided you know when to bid Goodbye!

Owning Multibagger Stocks which can multiply Investments in Future

The number of small-cap stocks is large and finding a quality stock that can give high returns over a long period is tough even for equity analysts. One reason is that such stocks usually have a short history and are not tracked by many analysts and brokerage houses. Then there are risks such as low liquidity, governance concerns and competition from larger players.

Scores of once small companies have over the years grown big, giving investors a 30-50 percent annual return over 10-15 years and creating fortunes for investors. However, more often than not, we find ourselves at the wrong side of the fence and regret our inability to spot such stocks on time.

Buying Strategy for Small Caps

1. Go for companies with low debt ratio (preferably less than one)

2. A high interest coverage ratio (above 3x) and a high return on equity are big advantages

3. Avoid companies with huge liabilities in the form of foreign currency convertible bonds / external commercial borrowings

4. Look at the quality of the management, its governance standards and how investor-friendly the company is.

5. Mid-cap and small-cap companies can be future market leaders, so be patient with your investments

Those who wish to invest in small-cap stocks should do so only if they have a long investment horizon and tolerance for volatility. Small-cap stocks suffer the steepest falls in a bear market and rise the most in a bull market. An investor should stay invested for at least three-five years to allow their portfolio to gain from at least one bull run. If you are looking for multibaggers, stock must have high growth rates along with expanding PE ratios. The price we pay for the stock is important as it will determine whether there is enough scope left for a PE expansion to take place. 

Benefits of Investing in Small Caps

1. Huge growth potential: The first and the most important advantage that a small cap stock gives you is their high growth potential. Since these are small companies they have great scope to rise as opposed to already large companies.

2. Low Valuations: Usually small cap stocks are available at lower valuations compared to mid & large caps. Hence, if you invest in good small cap companies at initial stage and wait for couple of years,  you will see price appreciation not only because of growth in top line and bottom line but also due to rerating which happens with increase in market capital of the company.

3. Early Entrance Advantage: Most of the fund house and institutions do not own small caps with low market cap due to less liquidity which make it difficult for them to own sufficient no. of shares. This gives retail investors an opportunity to be an early entrant to accumulate such companies shares. When company grows in market cap by delivering consistent growth and becomes more liquid, entry of fund houses and institutions push the share prices up giving maximum gains to early entrants.  

4. Under–Researched: Small cap stocks are often given the least attention by the analysts who are more interested in the large companies. Hence, they are often under - recognized and could be under-priced thus giving the investor the opportunity to benefit from these low prices.

5. Emerging Sectors: In a developing economy where there are several new business models and sectors emerging, the opportunity to pick new leaders can be hugely beneficial. Also the disruptive models in the new age is leading to more churn and faster growth amongst the nimble footed smaller companies.

Concerns while Investing in Small Caps

1. Risk: The first and the most important disadvantage a small cap stock is the high level of risk it exposes an investor to. If a small cap company has the potential to rise quickly, it even has the potential to fall. Owing to its small size, it may not be able to sustain itself thereby leading the investor into great loses. After all, the bigger the company, the harder it is for it to fall.

2. Volatility: Small cap stocks are also more volatile as compared to large cap stocks. This is mainly because they have limited reserves against hard times. Also, it in the event of an economic crisis or any change in the company administration could lead to investors dis-investing thereby leading to a fall in prices.

3. Liquidity: Since investing in small cap stocks is mainly a decision depending upon one’s ability to undertake risk, a small cap stock can often become illiquid. Hence, one should not depend upon them for an important life goal.

4. Lack of information: As opposed to a large cap company, the analysts do not spend enough time studying the small cap companies. Hence, there isn’t enough information available to the investor so that he can study the company and decide about it future prospects.

Be a disciplined investor who keep on investing in systematic way irrespective of market conditions and not an emotional investor who usually buy stocks during bull phase when stock prices are moving higher because of greed and sell them in panic during bear phase due to severe fall in stock prices, making mistake of buying high and selling low.

Wish you happy & safe Investing.

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan.