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Showing posts with label Wealth Creation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wealth Creation. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 4, 2021

6 Important Rules for Picking Multibagger Stocks

Important Rules to follow while Picking Multibagger Stocks


multibagger stocks
During last decade post global financial crisis of 2009, there are numerous companies which have multiplied investor’s capital delivering super-duper multibagger returns. Similarly, there are plenty of companies which have destroyed investor’s capital to almost zero over last 10 years.

Hence, its important to know the basic criteria’s which make a company a right investment candidate with potential to multiply wealth in long term.

Rules to follow while Identifying Multibagger Stocks

Below are the 6 basic rules which we must follow to pick right companies having multibagger potential.

1. Quality management with high integrity

Alignment of management interest with minority shareholders is one of the key parameter. High standard of corporate governance ensures that company is not involved in any wrong doings. Proper and timely disclosures of shareholder related information by the companies build trust over time. Past track record of promoters, disclosures and dividend pay-out history can help us to check on this crucial parameter.


If the management is not honest, will they want to share the goodies with you? No, they will look for the first opportunity to siphon off the profits and pull the wool over your eyes. We have seen how the investors of LEEL Electricals have lost 95% of their capital over last 1 year due to personal enrichment of LEEL promoters by siphoning off company's profit from the sale of its consumer durable division to Havells.

2. High ROE & ROCE – Efficient use of capital

Return on Equity (ROE) measures a company's profitability by comparing its net income to shareholders equity (book value). ROE is a speed limit on self-funded growth (company's profit). That is, a company cant grow earnings faster than its ROE without raising cash by borrowing or selling more shares. For instance, a 15% ROE means that the company can’t grow earnings faster than 15% annually by relying only on profit to fuel growth. ROCE measures the overall returns for all stakeholders and is a relatively good measure of the overall efficiency of the company. A consistently low ROCE signifies that there is something inherently wrong with the business or the company.

Wealth creator stocks usually have very high ROE and the ROCE relative to the rest of the industry. Typically, companies with high ROCE and ROE would also be generating positive free cash flows consistently. Increasing ROE and ROCE every passing year with low / negligible debt on books is one of the key aspect in spotting multibagger stocks.

3. Low Debt and Free Cash Flows

Its important to learn the lesson from financial crisis of 2011 and now of 2019 that companies with high debt simply get slaughtered. While debt is not bad in case if the company is able to borrow at a lower rate and deploy it in its business at a higher rate as the operating leverage works in its favour, however excessive debt with high interest and repayment obligations can crunch the stock in times of downturn. So, as a long-term investment philosophy, it is best to steer clear of high-debt companies.

Recent episode of stock prices falling liking nine pins of ADAG companies (Reliance Power, Reliance Infra, Reliance Com, Reliance Capital), Essel group companies, Jain Irrigation etc indicates how unbearable high debt burden on books can destroy investors wealth in shortest span of time.

4. Asset Light Business Model - No High Capex Requirements

We know the demerits of investing in stocks like Suzlon & GMR Infra which have an insatiable appetite for more and more capital. To feed their perennial hunger, these companies dilute their equity by making FPOs, GDRs & FCCBs resulting in total destruction of shareholders wealth. This is the simple reason why we do not see multi-bagger opportunities from sectors like metals, infrastructure and utilities because of the capital intensive business model which leads to very high leverage and low return ratios.

Companies should be lean and mean requiring minimal capital but generating huge returns with free cash flows which can be used not only to reward shareholders but also to expand business in future. It is not necessary that company should be a zero-debt company as some amount of leverage can actually improve shareholders returns.

5. The Scale of Opportunity & Non-cyclical Business

Multi-bagger stocks are created because they are able to scale the opportunity rapidly. Titan Industries is a great example. In 2003-04, Titan was a small company with market capital of 500 crores. As on date, its a large cap with more than 1 lakh crores market cap. The fact that India is a booming marketplace of 132 crores consumers means that most products and services have a head start at trying to scale up their activities.

One key factor that creates value in the stock market is consistent growth across economic & market cycles. While markets values growth, it also pay higher premium on consistency in growth. Most of multi-baggers of past like Asian Paints, Titan, Page Industries, United Spirits, Marico, Aurobindo Pharma are typically high growth companies in non-cyclical businesses. It is extremely rare to find a multi-bagger in a typical commodity business like steel, aluminium or oil.

6. Valuations & Future Growth Prospects

Most investors are obsessed about valuations, refusing to buy any stock that is expensive. However, one must remember that expensive is a relative term. If a stock is compounding at 25% on an annual basis, paying a price to earning multiple (P/E ratio) of 30 may be very reasonable. A stock like Nestle or HUL, for instance, has always been expensive. However, a great company with an impeccable pedigree may not always be a good stock to buy. This could be due to the fact that most of the triggers are already in the price and future growth potential does not justify the valuations. The PEG ratio (which is PE ratio divided by sustainable growth) is a simple way to measure valuation relative to growth.

But it is equally important to consider other parameters like financial ratios and brands that the company has created which can go a long way in determining potential valuation. A particular company may look expensive to an investor who have a 2 years horizon but may be a screaming buy for investor who wish to hold it for next 5 to 7 years.

There is no guarantee that the above mentioned parameters would always help investors identify multi-baggers, but these parameters will surely help investors to invest in right set of companies and avoiding those which may end up being value destructors. Moreover, we can learn by following key traits of successful investors who have created enormous wealth in past.

Peter Lynch 2 Minutes Drill to Shortlist Potential Multibaggers

The key parameters involved in Peter Lynch’s ‘two minute drill’ are:

1. P/E Ratio: avoid stocks with excessively high P/E
2. Debt/Equity Ratio: should be low
3. Net Cash per Share: should be high
4. Dividend & Payout Ratio: should be adequate
5. Inventory levels: lower the better

Stay away from companies which are being actively tracked, followed & invested in by large institutional investors. News about buy back of shares or internal stakeholders increasing their stakes should be construed as positive.

Checks specific to Fast Growers:

1. The star product forms a majority of the company’s business.
2. Company’s success in more than one places to prove that expansion will work.
3. Still opportunity for penetration.
4. Stock is selling at its P/E ratio or near the growth rate.
5. Expansion is speeding up Or stable

One must judiciously walk the tightrope between the unquestioning belief that made the stock to be held for so long and the fear of the end from nose-diving prices due to a one-off bad year. The key is to always keep revisiting the story & ask some pertinent questions like ‘What would really keep them growing?’, ‘What is their next offering? or ‘Are their products & services still in vogue?’ It is here, that one must track the point of time when the phase 2 of the firm’s expansion comes to an end. This is usually the dead-end for organizations as success is difficult to be replicated. Unless, innovation happens, downfall is imminent & thus, an exit is necessary. P/E of these stocks is drummed up to unrealistically high levels by the madness of crowd towards the end. One must keep one’s eyes & ears open to signs, which mark the end of the road for these fast growers. A great case in point is Polaroid which had its P/E bid up to 50, only to be rendered obsolete later by new technologies.

A sure shot sign of a decline is a company which is everywhere! Such a company would simply find no place to expand any further. Sooner, rather than later, such a company would see its ‘Manhattans’ of earnings reduced to ‘plateaus’ of little or no growth, simply because no space is left to expand further.

1.The quarterly sales decline for existing stores.
2. New stores opening, though results are disappointing: weakening demand, over supply.
3. High level of attrition at the top level.
4. Company pitching heavily to institutional investors talking about what Peter Lynch calls ‘diversification’.
5. Stock trading at a P/E of 30 or more, when most optimistic estimates of earning growth are lower than 15-20%, thus, unable to justify the high price.

Fast Growers, which pay, are ephemeral & one misses them more often than not. It is a High Risk & High Gain Category of Stocks. One must remember along the classic risk & return principle, that when one loses, one loses big! So, if you are in the quest for magnificent returns, a Fast Grower can be your bet provided you know when to bid Goodbye!

Owning Multibagger Stocks which can multiply Investments in Future

The number of small-cap stocks is large and finding a quality stock that can give high returns over a long period is tough even for equity analysts. One reason is that such stocks usually have a short history and are not tracked by many analysts and brokerage houses. Then there are risks such as low liquidity, governance concerns and competition from larger players.

Scores of once small companies have over the years grown big, giving investors a 30-50 percent annual return over 10-15 years and creating fortunes for investors. However, more often than not, we find ourselves at the wrong side of the fence and regret our inability to spot such stocks on time.

Buying Strategy for Small Caps

1. Go for companies with low debt ratio (preferably less than one)

2. A high interest coverage ratio (above 3x) and a high return on equity are big advantages

3. Avoid companies with huge liabilities in the form of foreign currency convertible bonds / external commercial borrowings

4. Look at the quality of the management, its governance standards and how investor-friendly the company is.

5. Mid-cap and small-cap companies can be future market leaders, so be patient with your investments

Those who wish to invest in small-cap stocks should do so only if they have a long investment horizon and tolerance for volatility. Small-cap stocks suffer the steepest falls in a bear market and rise the most in a bull market. An investor should stay invested for at least three-five years to allow their portfolio to gain from at least one bull run. If you are looking for multibaggers, stock must have high growth rates along with expanding PE ratios. The price we pay for the stock is important as it will determine whether there is enough scope left for a PE expansion to take place. 

Benefits of Investing in Small Caps

1. Huge growth potential: The first and the most important advantage that a small cap stock gives you is their high growth potential. Since these are small companies they have great scope to rise as opposed to already large companies.

2. Low Valuations: Usually small cap stocks are available at lower valuations compared to mid & large caps. Hence, if you invest in good small cap companies at initial stage and wait for couple of years,  you will see price appreciation not only because of growth in top line and bottom line but also due to rerating which happens with increase in market capital of the company.

3. Early Entrance Advantage: Most of the fund house and institutions do not own small caps with low market cap due to less liquidity which make it difficult for them to own sufficient no. of shares. This gives retail investors an opportunity to be an early entrant to accumulate such companies shares. When company grows in market cap by delivering consistent growth and becomes more liquid, entry of fund houses and institutions push the share prices up giving maximum gains to early entrants.  

4. Under–Researched: Small cap stocks are often given the least attention by the analysts who are more interested in the large companies. Hence, they are often under - recognized and could be under-priced thus giving the investor the opportunity to benefit from these low prices.

5. Emerging Sectors: In a developing economy where there are several new business models and sectors emerging, the opportunity to pick new leaders can be hugely beneficial. Also the disruptive models in the new age is leading to more churn and faster growth amongst the nimble footed smaller companies.

Concerns while Investing in Small Caps

1. Risk: The first and the most important disadvantage a small cap stock is the high level of risk it exposes an investor to. If a small cap company has the potential to rise quickly, it even has the potential to fall. Owing to its small size, it may not be able to sustain itself thereby leading the investor into great loses. After all, the bigger the company, the harder it is for it to fall.

2. Volatility: Small cap stocks are also more volatile as compared to large cap stocks. This is mainly because they have limited reserves against hard times. Also, it in the event of an economic crisis or any change in the company administration could lead to investors dis-investing thereby leading to a fall in prices.

3. Liquidity: Since investing in small cap stocks is mainly a decision depending upon one’s ability to undertake risk, a small cap stock can often become illiquid. Hence, one should not depend upon them for an important life goal.

4. Lack of information: As opposed to a large cap company, the analysts do not spend enough time studying the small cap companies. Hence, there isn’t enough information available to the investor so that he can study the company and decide about it future prospects.

Be a disciplined investor who keep on investing in systematic way irrespective of market conditions and not an emotional investor who usually buy stocks during bull phase when stock prices are moving higher because of greed and sell them in panic during bear phase due to severe fall in stock prices, making mistake of buying high and selling low.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Thursday, July 15, 2021

How to Identify Stocks with Multibagger Potential?

Important Rules to follow while Picking Multibagger Stocks

Multibagger Small Cap Stocks
During last decade post global financial crisis of 2009, there are numerous companies which have multiplied investor’s capital delivering super-duper multibagger returns. Similarly, there are plenty of companies which have destroyed investor’s capital to almost zero over last 10 years.

Hence, its important to know the basic criteria’s which make a company a right investment candidate with potential to multiply wealth in long term.

Rules to follow while Identifying Multibagger Stocks

Below are the 6 basic rules which we must follow to pick right companies having multibagger potential.

1. Quality management with high integrity

Alignment of management interest with minority shareholders is one of the key parameter. High standard of corporate governance ensures that company is not involved in any wrong doings. Proper and timely disclosures of shareholder related information by the companies build trust over time. Past track record of promoters, disclosures and dividend pay-out history can help us to check on this crucial parameter.


If the management is not honest, will they want to share the goodies with you? No, they will look for the first opportunity to siphon off the profits and pull the wool over your eyes. We have seen how the investors of LEEL Electricals have lost 95% of their capital over last 1 year due to personal enrichment of LEEL promoters by siphoning off company's profit from the sale of its consumer durable division to Havells.

2. High ROE & ROCE – Efficient use of capital

Return on Equity (ROE) measures a company's profitability by comparing its net income to shareholders equity (book value). ROE is a speed limit on self-funded growth (company's profit). That is, a company cant grow earnings faster than its ROE without raising cash by borrowing or selling more shares. For instance, a 15% ROE means that the company can’t grow earnings faster than 15% annually by relying only on profit to fuel growth. ROCE measures the overall returns for all stakeholders and is a relatively good measure of the overall efficiency of the company. A consistently low ROCE signifies that there is something inherently wrong with the business or the company.

Wealth creator stocks usually have very high ROE and the ROCE relative to the rest of the industry. Typically, companies with high ROCE and ROE would also be generating positive free cash flows consistently. Increasing ROE and ROCE every passing year with low / negligible debt on books is one of the key aspect in spotting multibagger stocks.

3. Low Debt and Free Cash Flows

Its important to learn the lesson from financial crisis of 2011 and now of 2019 that companies with high debt simply get slaughtered. While debt is not bad in case if the company is able to borrow at a lower rate and deploy it in its business at a higher rate as the operating leverage works in its favour, however excessive debt with high interest and repayment obligations can crunch the stock in times of downturn. So, as a long-term investment philosophy, it is best to steer clear of high-debt companies.

Episode of stock prices falling liking nine pins in 2019 of ADAG companies (Reliance Power, Reliance Infra, Reliance Com, Reliance Capital), Essel group companies, Jain Irrigation etc indicates how unbearable high debt burden on books can destroy investors wealth in shortest span of time.

4. Asset Light Business Model - No High Capex Requirements

We know the demerits of investing in stocks like Suzlon & GMR Infra which have an insatiable appetite for more and more capital. To feed their perennial hunger, these companies dilute their equity by making FPOs, GDRs & FCCBs resulting in total destruction of shareholders wealth. This is the simple reason why we do not see multi-bagger opportunities from sectors like metals, infrastructure and utilities because of the capital intensive business model which leads to very high leverage and low return ratios.

Companies should be lean and mean requiring minimal capital but generating huge returns with free cash flows which can be used not only to reward shareholders but also to expand business in future. It is not necessary that company should be a zero-debt company as some amount of leverage can actually improve shareholders returns.

5. The Scale of Opportunity & Non-cyclical Business

Multi-bagger stocks are created because they are able to scale the opportunity rapidly. Titan Industries is a great example. In 2003-04, Titan was a small company with market capital of 500 crores. As on date, its a large cap with more than 2 lakh crores market cap. The fact that India is a booming marketplace of 135 crores consumers means that most products and services have a head start at trying to scale up their activities.

One key factor that creates value in the stock market is consistent growth across economic & market cycles. While markets values growth, it also pay higher premium on consistency in growth. Most of multi-baggers of past like Asian Paints, Titan, Page Industries, United Spirits, Marico, Aurobindo Pharma are typically high growth companies in non-cyclical businesses. It is extremely rare to find a multi-bagger in a typical commodity business like steel, aluminium or oil.

6. Valuations & Future Growth Prospects

Most investors are obsessed about valuations, refusing to buy any stock that is expensive. However, one must remember that expensive is a relative term. If a stock is compounding at 25% on an annual basis, paying a price to earning multiple (P/E ratio) of 30 may be very reasonable. A stock like Nestle or HUL, for instance, has always been expensive. However, a great company with an impeccable pedigree may not always be a good stock to buy. This could be due to the fact that most of the triggers are already in the price and future growth potential does not justify the valuations. The PEG ratio (which is PE ratio divided by sustainable growth) is a simple way to measure valuation relative to growth.

But it is equally important to consider other parameters like financial ratios and brands that the company has created which can go a long way in determining potential valuation. A particular company may look expensive to an investor who have a 2 years horizon but may be a screaming buy for investor who wish to hold it for next 5 to 7 years.

There is no guarantee that the above mentioned parameters would always help investors identify multi-baggers, but these parameters will surely help investors to invest in right set of companies and avoiding those which may end up being value destructors. Moreover, we can learn by following key traits of successful investors who have created enormous wealth in past.

Peter Lynch 2 Minutes Drill to Shortlist Potential Multibaggers

The key parameters involved in Peter Lynch’s ‘two minute drill’ are:

1. P/E Ratio: avoid stocks with excessively high P/E
2. Debt/Equity Ratio: should be low
3. Net Cash per Share: should be high
4. Dividend & Payout Ratio: should be adequate
5. Inventory levels: lower the better

Stay away from companies which are being actively tracked, followed & invested in by large institutional investors. News about buy back of shares or internal stakeholders increasing their stakes should be construed as positive.

Checks specific to Fast Growers:

1. The star product forms a majority of the company’s business.
2. Company’s success in more than one places to prove that expansion will work.
3. Still opportunity for penetration.
4. Stock is selling at its P/E ratio or near the growth rate.
5. Expansion is speeding up Or stable

One must judiciously walk the tightrope between the unquestioning belief that made the stock to be held for so long and the fear of the end from nose-diving prices due to a one-off bad year. The key is to always keep revisiting the story & ask some pertinent questions like ‘What would really keep them growing?’, ‘What is their next offering? or ‘Are their products & services still in vogue?’ It is here, that one must track the point of time when the phase 2 of the firm’s expansion comes to an end. This is usually the dead-end for organizations as success is difficult to be replicated. Unless, innovation happens, downfall is imminent & thus, an exit is necessary. P/E of these stocks is drummed up to unrealistically high levels by the madness of crowd towards the end. One must keep one’s eyes & ears open to signs, which mark the end of the road for these fast growers. A great case in point is Polaroid which had its P/E bid up to 50, only to be rendered obsolete later by new technologies.

A sure shot sign of a decline is a company which is everywhere! Such a company would simply find no place to expand any further. Sooner, rather than later, such a company would see its ‘Manhattans’ of earnings reduced to ‘plateaus’ of little or no growth, simply because no space is left to expand further.

1.The quarterly sales decline for existing stores.
2. New stores opening, though results are disappointing: weakening demand, over supply.
3. High level of attrition at the top level.
4. Company pitching heavily to institutional investors talking about what Peter Lynch calls ‘diversification’.
5. Stock trading at a P/E of 30 or more, when most optimistic estimates of earning growth are lower than 15-20%, thus, unable to justify the high price.

Fast Growers, which pay, are ephemeral & one misses them more often than not. It is a High Risk & High Gain Category of Stocks. One must remember along the classic risk & return principle, that when one loses, one loses big! So, if you are in the quest for magnificent returns, a Fast Grower can be your bet provided you know when to bid Goodbye!

Owning Multibagger Stocks which can multiply Investments in Future

The number of small-cap stocks is large and finding a quality stock that can give high returns over a long period is tough even for equity analysts. One reason is that such stocks usually have a short history and are not tracked by many analysts and brokerage houses. Then there are risks such as low liquidity, governance concerns and competition from larger players.

Scores of once small companies have over the years grown big, giving investors a 30-50 percent annual return over 10-15 years and creating fortunes for investors. However, more often than not, we find ourselves at the wrong side of the fence and regret our inability to spot such stocks on time.

Buying Strategy for Small Caps

1. Go for companies with low debt ratio (preferably less than one)

2. A high interest coverage ratio (above 3x) and a high return on equity are big advantages

3. Avoid companies with huge liabilities in the form of foreign currency convertible bonds / external commercial borrowings

4. Look at the quality of the management, its governance standards and how investor-friendly the company is.

5. Mid-cap and small-cap companies can be future market leaders, so be patient with your investments

Those who wish to invest in small-cap stocks should do so only if they have a long investment horizon and tolerance for volatility. Small-cap stocks suffer the steepest falls in a bear market and rise the most in a bull market. An investor should stay invested for at least three-five years to allow their portfolio to gain from at least one bull run. If you are looking for multibaggers, stock must have high growth rates along with expanding PE ratios. The price we pay for the stock is important as it will determine whether there is enough scope left for a PE expansion to take place. 

Benefits of Investing in Small Caps

1. Huge growth potential: The first and the most important advantage that a small cap stock gives you is their high growth potential. Since these are small companies they have great scope to rise as opposed to already large companies.

2. Low Valuations: Usually small cap stocks are available at lower valuations compared to mid & large caps. Hence, if you invest in good small cap companies at initial stage and wait for couple of years,  you will see price appreciation not only because of growth in top line and bottom line but also due to rerating which happens with increase in market capital of the company.

3. Early Entrance Advantage: Most of the fund house and institutions do not own small caps with low market cap due to less liquidity which make it difficult for them to own sufficient no. of shares. This gives retail investors an opportunity to be an early entrant to accumulate such companies shares. When company grows in market cap by delivering consistent growth and becomes more liquid, entry of fund houses and institutions push the share prices up giving maximum gains to early entrants.  

4. Under–Researched: Small cap stocks are often given the least attention by the analysts who are more interested in the large companies. Hence, they are often under - recognized and could be under-priced thus giving the investor the opportunity to benefit from these low prices.

5. Emerging Sectors: In a developing economy where there are several new business models and sectors emerging, the opportunity to pick new leaders can be hugely beneficial. Also the disruptive models in the new age is leading to more churn and faster growth amongst the nimble footed smaller companies.

Concerns while Investing in Small Caps

1. Risk: The first and the most important disadvantage a small cap stock is the high level of risk it exposes an investor to. If a small cap company has the potential to rise quickly, it even has the potential to fall. Owing to its small size, it may not be able to sustain itself thereby leading the investor into great loses. After all, the bigger the company, the harder it is for it to fall.

2. Volatility: Small cap stocks are also more volatile as compared to large cap stocks. This is mainly because they have limited reserves against hard times. Also, it in the event of an economic crisis or any change in the company administration could lead to investors dis-investing thereby leading to a fall in prices.

3. Liquidity: Since investing in small cap stocks is mainly a decision depending upon one’s ability to undertake risk, a small cap stock can often become illiquid. Hence, one should not depend upon them for an important life goal.

4. Lack of information: As opposed to a large cap company, the analysts do not spend enough time studying the small cap companies. Hence, there isn’t enough information available to the investor so that he can study the company and decide about it future prospects.

Be a disciplined investor who keep on investing in systematic way irrespective of market conditions and not an emotional investor who usually buy stocks during bull phase when stock prices are moving higher because of greed and sell them in panic during bear phase due to severe fall in stock prices, making mistake of buying high and selling low.

Wish you happy & safe Investing.

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan.

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Check Fundamentals & Not Share Price while Buying Stocks

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We started Hidden Gems annual subscription in late 2010 followed by other services like Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days and Wealth-Builder, today we have a strong subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 8 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 157, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 3918 in January 2018, post severe correction in small and mid cap stocks over last 15 months, stock is down by -28% and is at Rs. 2809 today. Even after such a correction in stock price, Cera Sanitaryware is a 18-Bagger stock giving as on date returns of 1690% in 7 years from our initial recommendation and 525% return from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We continuously recommended Cera during last couple of years to our members at much higher levels.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Tide Water Oil share price was Rs. 1450 on 1st Jan'12 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 5800). Today the stock price is at Rs. 5051 giving absolute returns of 248% i.e. 3.5 times in 7 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. We suggested Buy on Tide Water Oil and many of our subscribers might not have invested in it thinking that they can buy hardly 2 shares by investing Rs. 12,000 but now those 2 shares are actually 8 shares post stock split and issue of bonus share and share price is near the recommended price.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like future growth prospects of the company, PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech was a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. Now it is hovering at just Rs 0.42 and trading is suspended in the stock. Those who purchased the stock during 2010 are in 99% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 is valued at merely Rs. 1,000 today, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 or Rs. 5 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 6 to 9 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Saturday, October 26, 2019

Small Cap Stocks & Once in a Decade Opportunity!

Dear Reader,

If you were investing in small cap stocks in the year like 2016 and 2017 and stopped investing now due to recent carnage in broader markets, believe us you are making a bigger mistake. Do not allow your emotions to take control of your equity investment decisions, instead inculcate habit of investing in discipline manner.

Small caps being most volatile tend to offer best investing opportunities during turbulent times. Retail investors usually make mistake by buying stocks at higher levels due to greed factor and later exit due to panic and fear of further erosion of capital. This phase has happened earlier also and good quality small and mid caps have always bounced back, not only recovering all losses but also delivering much higher returns from previous highs. Good sentiments as well as bad sentiments do not last forever.

If you analyse BSE Small Cap Index YoY returns, you will realise that small cap index not only recovered but also delivered astonishing returns in short span of time once tide turns favourable. In last 16 years, small cap index delivered significantly higher returns in single year every four years. In past, we experienced fierce rally in small caps in years like 2007, 2009, 2014 and 2017. During good times when overall economy is doing well, small cap stocks use to deliver mind boggling returns turning multibaggers in period of 12 to 24 months.
BSE Small Cap Index went up by 69% in 2014 and during the same year numerous small and mid cap stocks turned multi-bagger. Scenario was similar in 2017 when BSE Small Cap Index rallied by 58%, since Jan 2018 broader market went into bear grip with significant sell off in many small and mid caps due to expensive valuations and series of negatives developments followed by slowdown in economy.

Coming back to the current situation, the small cap index is down by 35% from its peak made in January 2018. The liquidity crisis in NBFCs, the DHFL and IL&FS defaults, series of rating downgrades by rating agencies, lenders dumping stocks of debt laden companies and recent slowdown in economic growth have not only taken the steam out of small caps but also made companies available at significantly discounted valuations compared to large caps. Fear and misinformation has shattered investor’s confidence and hence quality businesses are back to cheap valuations after a long time. Post steep fall in stock prices over last 20 months, many small caps are now offering once in a decade investment opportunity!

However, the greed to get multibagger returns by investing in small and mid caps in year like 2016 & 2017 turned out to fear these days. Inspite of attractive valuations of many small and mid size companies backed by sound business fundamentals, no body wish to look at this space now. Investors who were willing to pay much higher price for small and mid cap stocks in 2017 are shying away to invest in these stocks which are now available at lower than halve the prices of 2017.

The reason is the carnage in stock prices of many well-known small and mid cap companies. Individual small and mid cap stocks are touching 52-week lows every other day and individual damage to most of the stocks in this category is to the tune of 50-60%, some even more than that. Such severe and fast erosion of capital in small and mid caps have butchered investors interest towards this category. Retail investors have taken the back foot and lost their faith and conviction towards investing in small and mid caps due to existing pain in their portfolios.

However, we are quite excited about opportunities emerging in small and mid cap space during this year. The fall in stock prices of many small and mid caps by more than 50% from their peaks has not happened for the first time. This has happened in past in years like 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 and companies with good business fundamentals have always bounced back strongly later delivering multi-bagger returns. When overall market sentiments are negative like we are witnessing now, quality businesses also face the heat. As bad stocks go down, good stocks go down with them too. But good companies make a stronger come back with earning revival once economy cycle starts its upturn.

We have been saying this time and again - don’t try to time the market. We firmly believe that to get the best returns in the long term, investors should invest in a staggered and disciplined manner irrespective of market conditions. Investing through ups and downs of the market lets your investment grow and averages the purchasing cost. Equity investment is a serious business meant for long term investors. Trying to get in when the market goes up and getting out when there is a correction does not help you to create wealth.

Let us share some valuable insights to make you understand why we believe buying the right set of small and mid caps now can be a massive wealth creating once in a decade opportunity. To make our readers understand bull as well as bear phase of markets, we have covered long term monthly charts of some of our own small and mid cap stocks recommendations (released under Hidden Gems and Value Picks) over last 9 years which at one point of time were down by 50% to 70% from their peak but turned out to be mega multibagger stocks in longer run delivering upto 64X returns.

Below are the Monthly Chart (since Jan'10) of 8 Multibagger Small Cap Stocks released under Hidden Gems service. 

1. Camlin Fine Sciences (Hidden Gem released on 27th Mar'11)

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 1

Above is the monthly chart of Camlin Fine Sciences which we recommended as Hidden Gem on 27 Mar’11 at 6.05*. The stock made life time high of 155 in Jan 2018 and later crashed to lows of 36.70. At current price of around 60, it is still a 10-Bagger for investors who bought it during lows of 2011 or 2013 but those who invested later during 2015 – 2017 period are bearing losses as of now. Current situation is more or less similar like that of 2013. Investors who bought Camlin Fine Science stock at highs of 2011 were holding it bearing losses till 2013. However, initial pain of 2 years rewarded the investors of 2011 later in year 2014-2015.

2. Kovai Medical (Hidden Gem released on 27th Oct'11) 

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 2
Now look at monthly chart of KMCH since Jan 2010, Kovai Medical stock price made a high of Rs. 176 in Feb 2010 and low of Rs. 89.50 in 2012 when overall market sentiments were negatives. It witnessed correction of nearly 50% over next 2 years. Later in 2014, stock rallied more than 400% in matter of 12 months. Kovai Medical price fell by 56% from high of 1480 in Jan 2018, a 8-Bagger stock even after severe fall in stock price for those who invested in the company in 2012.

3. Roto Pumps (Hidden Gem released on 05th Aug'12)

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 3
Let us look at monthly chart of Roto Pumps since Jan 2010, stock which turned 10-Bagger in matter of 16 months. Roto Pumps which witnessed correction of 60% in stock price in 2011 from high of 2010, rallied by more than 900% later in 2014. At current levels, Roto Pumps is a 13-Bagger stock for investors who bought it at lows of 2011.

4. Acrysil (Hidden Gem released on 25th Nov'12)

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 4
Above is the monthly chart of Acrysil  from Jan 2010. Acrysil stock price fell by 48% over 2 years from its peak of 2010. With improvement in fundamentals and start of bull cycle, stock delivered 588% returns within one year. It is still a 9-Bagger stock for investors who bought it in 2012 or 2013 and a 4-Bagger for those who invested at high in Jan 2010 and later experienced negative returns for nearly 4 years.

5. TCPL Packaging (Hidden Gem released on 31st Jan'13)

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 5
Above is the monthly chart of TCPL Packaging since Jan 2010. In 2014 with start of bull cycle in broader market, stock delivered 1100% returns in 2 years, turning 12-Bagger stock from initial high of Nov 2010 and 22-Bagger from lows of 2011. TCPL Packaging is down by 60% from its all time high but it is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who bought it at highs of 2010 and still holding it.

6. Rane Brake Lining (Hidden Gem released on 31st May'14)

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 6
Rane Brake Lining is our Hidden Gem stock recommended on 31 May 2014. During recent melt down in broader markets, stock witnessed price correction of 67% over last 2 years. Even when stock is down from all time high of 1450 hitting recent lows of 505, it is a 4-Bagger stock from highs of Nov 2010. Those who invested at high of Nov’10 were sitting on losses in the same stock for more than 3 years.

7. Visaka Industries (Hidden Gem released on 05th Jul'15)

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 7



Above is the monthly chart of Visaka Industries since Jan 2010. Between Feb’16 to Jan’18, stock turned 9-Bagger delivering 853% returns in 2 years. Since then stock price has corrected by 68% making recent lows of 265 but is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the same company 7 to 8 years back during 2011 – 2012 and a 2-Bagger for those who invested in 2015 - 2016.

8. Stylam Industries (Hidden Gem released on 08th May'16)

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 8
Stylam Industries has delivered maximum returns of 6304% in last 9 years. A mind boggling mega 64-Bagger stock which moved from lows of 13.35 (Nov 2011) to high of 855 (July 2017). We recommended Stylam Industries as Hidden Gem on 08 May 2016 and advised to book full profits around 800 levels considering expensive valuations of the company. Its interesting to note that the stock which turned out to be a mega multi-bagger delivering maximum returns of 64 times over last 9 years was down by more than 70% by Nov 2011 from its peak of July 2010.

Below are the Monthly Chart (since Jan'10) of 5 Multibagger Mid Cap Stocks released under Value Picks service.

1. Aurobindo Pharma (Value Pick released on 27th Jan'13)

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 1



Aurobindo Pharma, a well known company from pharma sector, was recommended as our Value Pick stock on 27 Jan 2013. Stock which made low of 41.52* witnessing fall of 70% from its peak of Jan 2011 later delivered 1200% returns in matter of 2.5 years. Aurobindo Pharma is still a 15-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the company during lows of 2011.

2. Mindtree (Value Pick released on 23rd Mar'14)

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 2

Let us look at monthly chart of our another Value Pick stock – Mindtree recommended on 23 Mar 2014. Mindtree also witnessed severe correction of 61% from its peak of Jan 2010 and tested patience of investors for nearly 4 years. Those who stay invested and sit patiently on the stock were rewarded over next 2 years as stock rallied from 195* to 795* delivering more than 300% returns.

3. Heritage Foods (Value Pick released on 03rd Jan'16)

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 3

Above is the monthly chart of Heritage Food of last 9 years. During bear phase of 2011 – 2012, stock price fell by 52% from its peak price of 2010. However,  the same company delivered 525% during bull phase in matter of 30 months. Stock made all time high of 884 in Oct 2017 turning mega 28-Bagger stock from lows of Jun 2012.

4. Can Fin Homes (Value Pick released on 29th Feb'16)

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 4
Can Fin Homes witnessed severe correction of 67% from its peak during last year. However, the same stock created significant wealth for investors who invested in the company during beginning of this decade. Even after severe correction in stock price over last 2 years, stock is a 12-Bagger for investors who invested in the company at high of 2010 and a 20-Bagger who invested at lows of 2012.

5. Sonata Software (Value Pick released on 10th Jul'16)

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 5
Above is the monthly chart of Sonata Software since Jan 2010. The stock price fell by 76% in 2 years from high of 69 made in April 2010. Investors who bought at highs of Apr 2010 were in losses for almost 5 years but those who held it tightly were rewarded handsomely over next 4 years. Sonata Software made all time high of 428.40 in Sept 2018 turning 7-Bagger for those who entered at highs of 2010.

Looking at long term charts of most of the companies with good businesses, you will realise that investors who entered in market by investing in small and mid caps during last 2 to 3 years have pain in their portfolio however those who invested in bad phase of market in 2011 - 2013 like that of today are still holding plenty of multibaggers in their portfolio. That is why its important to invest in equities keeping a real long term view. In fact, during turbulent times, we must increase investments / equity allocation in small / mid size companies which have good business fundamentals with better earning visibility and robust cash flows from their operations to get rewarded in big way in long run.

Do contact us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Saturday, August 17, 2019

Worried About Bleeding Portfolio? Read This Immediately!

Dear Reader,

Staying invested may be easier said than done when the markets are in bear grip, but it is a necessity for long-term wealth creation. Patience will pay rich dividends to those investors who learn to weather the storm. In fact, investments made in right set of companies during bad market conditions rewards long term investors in much bigger way.

We strongly believe that this is a great time to buy good quality small and mid size companies that have been beaten down. No one is talking about small caps these days and that’s the strong reason why we should invest in this segment. It’s wise to be greedy when there is fear surrounding small and mid caps. This is not the first time small caps have fallen out of favour and then gone on to recover smartly.

Multibagger Small & Mid Caps - Long Term Investing ReportTo make our readers understand the benefits of staying invested for long term and continue investing in small caps and mid caps during bad times like we are experiencing now, we have released - Multibagger Small / Mid Caps and Long Term Investing Report recently on 10th July 2019.

This is a must read report for all those investors who started investing in equities over last 2 to 3 years and are worried now due to their bleeding portfolio, and do not have courage and conviction to invest further in small and mid caps.

The objective of this report is to understand why its utmost important to invest in equities (mainly small and mid caps) keeping a real long term view, becoming a discipline investor by investing in stocks during good as well as bad times to create wealth through equities. We are confident that this report will reinforce your believe to stay invested during these turbulent times in broader markets and build your conviction further encouraging you to invest in small and mid caps with good business fundamentals at cheap valuations.

Broadly, Multibagger Small / Mid Caps & Long Term Investing report covers:

1. 6 Major Reasons for Decline in Small & Mid Caps
2. Budget 2019 - Steps towards easing Liquidity Crisis
3. Benefits on Investing in Small & Mid Caps during Bear Phase
4. 2019 - A Year of Multibagger Opportunities
5. The Bulls, The Bears & The Farm
6. Long Term Charts of Small & Mid Caps

To receive our Multibagger Small / Mid Caps and Long Term Investing report, simply fill up the form below. Once submitted, you will receive the report directly in your inbox. 



If you are unable to view the form, click here to fill it online to receive our Multibagger Small / Mid Caps & Long Term Investing report directly in your inbox.

Under this report, while looking at long term charts of the companies with normal / good businesses, you will realise that investors who entered in market by investing in small and mid caps during last 2 to 3 years have pain in their portfolio however those who invested in bad phase of market in 2011 - 2013 like that of today are still holding plenty of multibaggers in their portfolio. That is why its important to invest in equities keeping a real long term view. In fact, during turbulent times, we must increase investments / equity allocation in small / mid size companies which have good business fundamentals to get rewarded in big way in long run.

BSE Small Cap Index went up by 69% in 2014 and during this year numerous small and mid cap stocks turned multibagger delivering mind boggling returns. Scenario was similar in 2017 when BSE Small Cap Index rallied by 58%, later broader market went into bear grip with significant sell off in many small and mid caps due to expensive valuations and series of negatives developments over last 18 months as covered later.

We are experiencing lot of hopelessness along with fear towards equities in 2019.  The reason is the carnage in stock prices of many well-known established companies over last 18 months. Retail investors have taken the back foot and lost their faith and conviction towards investing in small and mid caps. We understand that it is really frustrating to see the Sensex and Nifty near to its all time highs while the BSE Small Cap and Mid Cap indices hovering at much lower levels compared to last year.

Since Jan 2018, Nifty and Sensex delivered positive returns of around 5%, where as BSE small cap index slumped 38%, and BSE mid cap index dropped 27%. Though these numbers tell us what the overall index lost, individual small and mid cap stocks were touching 52-week lows every other day and individual damage to most of the stocks in this category was to the tune of 50-70%, some even more than that.

When overall market sentiments are negative like we are witnessing now, quality businesses also face the heat. As bad stocks go down, good stocks go down with them too. But good companies make a stronger come back once economy cycle starts its upturn. The severe correction in broader market over last 18 months has given investors an opportunity to sieve through and find good quality stocks which are backed by strong balance-sheet and robust cash flow. The broad underperformance of the small and mid-caps seems to be overdone and interesting bottom-up opportunities are now available in this space across sectors. Earnings revival could also set the ball rolling in terms of re-rating these categories of stocks.

Click here and enter your details to receive our Multibagger Small / Mid Caps & Long Term Investing report directly in your inbox.

Stay Invested & Keep Investing for Real Long Term. Bcoz "If you want your Money to Grow, Equities is the only Way to Go"

Also Read: Diwali Muhurat Picks 2019 - 10 Best Stocks of Saral Gyan

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan

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