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Showing posts with label Stock Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Analysis. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Rajratan Global Wire - Our 24-Bagger Stock in 5 Years

Dear Reader,

We are pleased to inform you that our Hidden Gem stock of Oct'17 - Rajratan Global Wire Ltd (BSE Code: 517522) is a 24-Bagger stock for our Hidden Gems members within period of 5 years. 

Our team suggested Buy on Rajratan Global Wire Ltd at price of Rs. 54.77 on 30 Nov 2017 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual recommended price was Rs. 639 with target of Rs. 1250). The company rewarded shareholders by issuing bonus share in the ratio of 4:3 in 2019 and later did a stock split of 1 shares into 5 shares (face value of Rs. 10 to Rs 2 per share) in March 2022. Hence, every 3 shares held by our members have increased to 35 shares. Rajratan Global stock price made all time high of Rs. 1410 and closed at Rs. 997 on Friday giving absolute returns of 1720% i.e. more than 18 times within 5 years against double digit returns of Sensex & Nifty in the same period.

We advised partial profit booking in Rajratan Global Wires to our Hidden Gems members recently at Rs. 1300, booking returns of 2270% (almost 24X) within period of 5 years. Rajratan Global Wires has delivered CAGR of more than 90% to our Hidden Gems members.

Below is the summary of Rajratan Global Wires Ltd shared by our team under Hidden Gem stock - Oct'17 report released on 30 Nov 2017.

1. Company Background

Multibagger Stock Rajratan Global Wire
Established in 1988 by Mr Sunil Chordia, Rajratan Global Wire Ltd (Rajratan Global) is a market leader in supply of tyre bead wire in India. The company along with its subsidiary Rajratan Thai Wire Company (Rajratan Thailand) has around 40% share of the Indian tyre bead wire market. The company earlier entered into the Joint Venture with Gustav Wolf (Germany) for gaining technical know-how, later in 2003 shareholding held by Gustov Wolf was bought back by the promoters. The company commenced international operations in 2008 by setting up a plant in Thailand through a wholly owned subsidiary Rajratan Thai Wire Company. The company is second largest manufacturer (by capacity) of automotive tyre bead wire in India and only player manufacturing tyre bead wire in Thailand. Along with tyre bead wire, the company also manufactures other specialized steel wires (black wires) like rope wires, spring wires, auto cable outer etc. Steel wire rods is the primary raw material used for manufacturing by the company.

Rajratan Global has 2 manufacturing facilities, one in India and another in Thailand.
Rajratan Global Wire Capacity

Rajratan Global is a long term supplier for almost all major tyre manufacturers in India and is the market leader in the automotive tyre segment since 2012. The company has long term standing relationship with marquee clients.

Rajratan Global Clients:
Rajratan Global Wire Cients

Products Description:

i) Tyre Bead Wire 

Tyre bead wire is high carbon bronze coated steel wire used in all kinds of automobile tyres, tyres of earth moving equipments and aircrafts. The main function of bead wire is to hold the tyre on the rim and to resist the action of the inflated pressure which constantly tries to force it off. The bead is the crucial link through which the vehicle load is transferred from rim to the tyre. It significantly affects the safety, strength and the durability of tyres.

Bead wire is a drawn steel wire, which is manufactured from quality wire rods with high carbon content. Bead wire’s surface is coated with copper or bronze which ensures proper adhesion with the used rubber compound. 

Bead wire being a crucial component in any kind of tyre manufacturing, the company always ensure that not only the best of raw-material goes into its manufacturing, but that it also goes through toughest of quality tests. The company specializes in bead wire of customized tensile grades as per the requirements of its clients. Besides bead wire, it also produces high carbon steel wire and uncoated wires of varying specifications for different applications. 

2) High Carbon Steel Wire 

High carbon steel wire is popularly known as black wire. It is a drawn steel wire which is manufactured from quality wire rods with high carbon content. With a wide range of usage, black wire plays a vital role in many industries from automobile and construction to engineering industries. The company manufactures high carbon steel wire in its stateof-the-art plants and employ world-class patented heat treatment processes.

The high carbon steel wire manufactured by the company are of two Grades: 
1. Spring / Rope grade confirming to Grade I, II & III. 
2. Rolling quality / flattening quality grade.

2. Recent Development (30 Nov'17)

i) India’s Tyre Market to witness a CAGR of over 9% during 2016-2021 

India’s tyre market is forecast to witness a CAGR of over 9% during 2016-2021, according to the report of Research and Markets, a leading international market research agency. As per the report, titled “India Tyre Market Forecast & Opportunities, 2021, India ranks among one of the largest tyre markets in the world. Growing automobile sales coupled with expanding automobile fleet are the major factors boosting demand for tyres in the country. 

Though the replacement tyre demand had majority share in 2015, the OEM tyre demand is expected to outpace replacement tyre demand during 2016-2021 with more than 60 tyre manufacturing plants spread across the country. 

Moreover, with favorable inflationary scenario, expanding middle class population and increasing national disposable income, tyre sales across all the automobile segments are expected to grow in the coming years. As per report, presence of major automotive OEMs such as Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, TATA, BMW, etc. has been hugely contributing to the sales of tyres in India. 

Two-wheeler tire segment, which accounts for a volume share of over 50% in the country’s tyre market is also expected to maintain its position as the largest tyre segment over the next five years, adds the report. 

ii) India imposes Anti-Dumping Duty on select Tyres from China 

In Sept 2017, India has imposed an anti-dumping duty on a certain types of unused radial tyre for trucks and buses for the next five years in an attempt to protect the domestic tyre industry from low-cost Chinese imports.

The duty slapped on “new/unused pneumatic radial tyres with or without tubes and/or flap of rubber (including tubeless tyres) having nominal rim dia code above 16 (inch),” ranges between $245.35 to $452.33 per tonne, according to a notification by the Central Board of Excise and Customs.

Earlier, the Directorate General of Anti-dumping and Allied Duties had suggested such as levy on Chinese imports which are dumped in India for a cost below normal value. While the duty does not ban the import of these goods, it is meant as a tool that levels the field between the foreign and domestic industry.

This is a positive development as tyre industry gets nearly 55 percent of its revenue from trucks and buses radial tyre.

3. Financial Performance (30 Nov'17)

Rajratan Global Wire consolidated net profit rises 30.61% in the Sept 2017 quarter

Net profit of Rajratan Global Wire rose 30.61% to Rs 5.76 crore in the quarter ended September 2017 as against Rs 4.41 crore during the previous quarter ended September 2016. Sales rose 24.54% to Rs 90.44 crore in the quarter ended September 2017 as against Rs 72.62 crore during the previous quarter ended September 2016. 

Rajratan Global Wire consolidated net profit declines 43.26% in the June 2017 quarter

Net profit of Rajratan Global Wire declined 43.26% to Rs 3.58 crore in the quarter ended June 2017 as against Rs 6.31 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2016. Sales rose 5.92% to Rs 71.08 crore in the quarter ended June 2017 as against Rs 67.11 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2016.

Rajratan Global Wire Financial Performance

The company performance in Jun’17 quarter was subdued mainly on account of increase in input cost and lower offtake due to GST. However, it managed to post better Sept’17 quarter results by increasing its product prices due to rise in of raw material cost.


4. Peer Group Comparison (30 Nov'17)
Rajratan Global Wire Peer Group Comparison

5. Key Concerns / Risks (30 Nov'17)

i) Steel wire rods is the primary raw material used for manufacturing by the company. Increase in steel prices can adversely impact the operating margins of the company. As per management, the company passes on 60-100 percent of the higher raw material prices to its customers.

ii) Sluggishness in automobile demand globally can impact tyre industry, this can have a direct impact on revenue growth of the company.

iii) Steel wire Industry is highly fragmented and competitive. Any adverse development in market conditions, trade or government policies, foreign exchange fluctuations may impact company’s performance.

6. Saral Gyan Recommendation (30 Nov'17)

i) The growth outlook for Indian tyre industry looks promising with imposing of antidumping duty on a certain types of unused radial tyre for trucks and buses for the next five years and expected rise in domestic automobile sales going forward. This will augur well for the company being a market leader in India with 40% market share in automotive tyre bead wire segment and preferred supplier of more than 15 major tyre manufacturers in India and abroad. Moreover, growth momentum is expected to sustain in Thailand with addition of new clients like Bridgestone. 

ii) With rise in demand, Rajratan Global expanded its Thailand plant capacity from 24,000 MT to 26,400 MT last year. The company has planned further expansion of 9,600 MT over next 2 to 3 years to meet the growing demand for the company’s product. Moreover, the company has also invested in a new warehousing facility which is expected to help Rajratan Thailand to maintain sufficient inventory levels. Increase in minimum stock volume is being prioritized which will ensure efficient delivery performance.

iii) The company’s Thailand operations are in sweet spot. The company is sole manufacturer of tyre bead wire in Thailand and enjoys significant logistic benefits as major tyre manufacturers are located in close proximity. Thailand is one of the largest producers of natural rubber making it a market of choice for global tyre manufacturers. Presently there are around 20 tyre manufacturers in Thailand out of which 5 are Japanese and Taiwanese, providing good opportunity for Rajratan. The company is preferred supplier of Global OEM’s, major Japanese clients includes Sumitomo, Bridgestone and Yokohama. Recently, the company gets into agreement with Bridgestone and expect good revenue growth with rise in orders in coming quarters.

iv) The company continue to target 100% share of business in Thailand, it’s a sole supplier to companies such as Otani Radial, ND Rubber, Siam Rubber, Hihero, Union, BKF & Camel. Moreover, the company is continuously growing its exports market, it’s a largest supplier to the Sri Lanka tyre market with strong foot hold in other South East Asian countries like Vietnam and Malaysia.

v) Rajratan Global has registered sales CAGR of 2.8% and profit CAGR of 45.2% with ROE of 12.9% over last 5 years. The company has reduced its debt significantly over last couple of years with increase in operating margins.
Rajratan Global Wire Key Financial Ratio

vi) Rajratan Global has experienced core management team with strong Industry connect. Mr. Sunil Chordia is the Founder and MD of the company. He steered Rajratan Global towards significant growth in the tyre bead wire business and helped the company receive international approvals in short span of time. He possess over 27 years of experience and holds BSc, DCMA and MBA (finance) degrees. Mr. Yashovardhan Chordia looks after Thailand operations. He has worked as consultant for 3 years at Levers for change, he has experience in working on turn around projects for various sectors like Steel, Refinery, Refractory and Plastic.

vii) As of Sept’17, promoter’s shareholding in the company is at 63% out of which 16.41% shares is pledged. Promoters increased their shareholding by 0.72% in Sept’17 quarter, promoter’s shareholding in Jun’17 quarter was at 62.28%. Institution shareholding in the company is at 7.86%.

viii) The company is paying regular dividend since 2007. The company has paid dividend even during the years when it was in losses. The dividend yield is at 0.23%. 

ix) As per our estimates, Rajratan Global can deliver PAT of 21.71 crores in FY17-18 and Rs. 27.98 crores in FY18-19 with annualized EPS of Rs 49.89 and Rs. 64.32 respectively. At current price of 639, stock is available at forward P/E multiple of 9.9X based on FY18-19 earnings. Company’s valuation looks attractive considering strong earning visibility on account of planned expansion & robust growth outlook for tyre industry.

x) On equity of Rs. 4.35 crore, the estimated annualized EPS for FY18-19 works out to Rs. 64.32 and the Book Value per share is Rs. 244. At current market price of Rs. 639, stock price to book value is 2.62. 

Imposition of anti-dumping duty for 5 years and robust growth outlook of automobiles is expected to augur well for Indian tyre manufacturers in medium to long term. Considering company’s leadership position in domestic tyre bead wire market, continuity in growth momentum in its Thailand business with addition of new clients, planned expansion over 3 years to meet growing demand and attractive valuations of the company with comfortable debt level, Saral Gyan team recommends “Buy” on Rajratan Global Wire Ltd at current market price of Rs. 639 for target of Rs. 1250 over a period of 12 to 24 months. 

Buying Strategy:
  • 70% at current market price of 639 
  • 30% at price range of 520 - 550 (in case of correction in stock price in near term) 
Portfolio Allocation: 3% of your equity portfolio.

To Read / Download Saral Gyan Hidden Gem - Oct'17 Research Report - Click Here

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd is 1 out of those 65 multibagger stocks which have given returns in the range of more 200% to 9900% returns to our subscribers in period of 3 to 10 years. Team of equity analysts at Saral Gyan put lot of efforts & smart work to identify Hidden Gems (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks) and Value Picks (Mid Caps with Plenty of Upside Potential) which not only grow your capital at a healthy rate but also ensures protection of your capital during market downturn.

Also Read : Hidden Gems SIP Returns of 395% Vs Small Cap Index returns of 181%

Through Hidden Gems and Value Picks, we are providing you opportunities to invest in such small / mid cap stocks today. Infosys, Pantaloon, Dabur, Glenmark were the small cap stocks in past and today are the well known companies falling under mid and large cap space.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that are either under-researched or not covered by other brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our subscribers on our past recommendations suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future growth outlook.

Time has shown that smart investors have made their fortune by investing in equities in long term. None other asset class can match giving you such extra ordinary returns. Yes, its important for you to invest in right set of companies at right price with medium to long term perspective. If you think to invest in stocks for period of 6 to 12 months, we suggest you to stay out of stock market because you are not investing, you are betting on volatility of stock market which could be risky. Subscribe to Hidden Gems & Value Picks and start investing systematically keeping a real long term view.

Do write to us at info@saralgyan.in in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Team - Saral Gyan

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Why Share Price is Not Important while Buying Stocks?

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We have a subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 10 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 157, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 6450 last year and currently trading around Rs. 5500, Cera is a 40-Bagger stock in 11 years from our initial recommendation and is a 12X stock from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We held Cera for long term and suggested complete profit booking to our members in the stock around 3500 - 4000 levels in 2017.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Rajratan Global Wires share price was Rs. 54.77 on 30 Nov 2017 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 639). Today the stock price is at Rs. 1225 giving absolute returns of 2137% i.e. more than 22 times within 5 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. 

We suggested Buy on Rajratan Global Wires at price of Rs. 639 under Hidden Gems service on 30 Nov 2017 and if any of our subscribers have not invested in the company thinking he/she can get only 15 shares by investing Rs. 10,000 has made a big mistake. Today those 15 shares have increased to 175 shares on account of bonus shares issued by the company in the ratio of 4:3 in 2019 and later stock split of 1 shares into 5 shares (face value of Rs. 10 to Rs 2 per share) in March 2022. And the current share price of Rs. 1225 is still very high for those who looks at low price stock. We advised partial profit booking in Rajratan Global Wires to our Hidden Gems recently at Rs. 1300, booking returns of 2270% (almost 24X) in period of 5 years.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like future growth prospects of the company, PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech was a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. After 10 years, it was hovering at just Rs 1.30 and today its not operational any more. Those who purchased the stock during 2010 are in 100% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 was valued at merely Rs. 2,000 in 2020, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 or Rs. 5 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 5 to 10 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

If you wish to invest in fundamentally strong micro, small and mid cap companies which can give you far superior returns compared to major indices like Sensex or Nifty in long term and help you creating wealth, you can join our services like Hidden GemsValue Picks & Wealth-Builder.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that either under-researched or not covered by other stock brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our members on our past recommendation suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

At Saral Gyan, team of equity analysts keep on evaluating small and mid cap stocks to explore the best Hidden Gems and Value Picks of stock market. Saral Gyan - Nano Champs, Hidden Gems and Value Picks are the micro, small and mid cap stocks with high probability to become multi-bagger stocks in future and a path for our investors to create wealth through equity investments in a long run.

Please write to us at sales@saralgyan.in / info@saralgyan.in in case of any queries.

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Check Fundamentals & Not Share Price while Buying Stocks

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We started Hidden Gems annual subscription in late 2010 followed by other services like Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days and Wealth-Builder, today we have a strong subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 8 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 157, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 3918 in January 2018, post severe correction in small and mid cap stocks over last 15 months, stock is down by -28% and is at Rs. 2809 today. Even after such a correction in stock price, Cera Sanitaryware is a 18-Bagger stock giving as on date returns of 1690% in 7 years from our initial recommendation and 525% return from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We continuously recommended Cera during last couple of years to our members at much higher levels.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Tide Water Oil share price was Rs. 1450 on 1st Jan'12 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 5800). Today the stock price is at Rs. 5051 giving absolute returns of 248% i.e. 3.5 times in 7 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. We suggested Buy on Tide Water Oil and many of our subscribers might not have invested in it thinking that they can buy hardly 2 shares by investing Rs. 12,000 but now those 2 shares are actually 8 shares post stock split and issue of bonus share and share price is near the recommended price.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like future growth prospects of the company, PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech was a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. Now it is hovering at just Rs 0.42 and trading is suspended in the stock. Those who purchased the stock during 2010 are in 99% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 is valued at merely Rs. 1,000 today, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 or Rs. 5 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 6 to 9 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Check Fundamentals & Not Share Price while Buying Stocks!

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We started Hidden Gems annual subscription in late 2010 followed by other services like Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days and Wealth-Builder, today we have a strong subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 6 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 167, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 3315 on NSE recently and closed at Rs. 3060.35 today, stock has given as on date returns of 1732% in 5 years from our initial recommendation and 580% return from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We continuously recommended Cera during last year to our members at much higher levels.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Tide Water Oil share price was Rs. 1450 on 1st Jan'12 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 5800). Today the stock price closed at Rs. 6015 giving absolute returns of 315% i.e. more than 4 times within 5 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. We suggested Buy on Tide Water Oil and many of our subscribers might not have invested in it thinking that they can buy hardly 2 shares by investing Rs. 12,000 but now those 2 shares are actually 8 shares post stock split and issue of bonus share and share price is also near to the the recommended price.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech is a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. Today it is hovering at just Rs 3.50. Those who purchased that stock during 2010 are in 94% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 is valued at merely Rs. 6,000 today, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 5 to 7 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

If you wish to invest in fundamentally strong small and mid cap companies which can give you far superior returns compared to major indices like Sensex or Nifty in long term and help you creating wealth, you can join our services like Hidden GemsValue Picks & Wealth-Builder.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that either under-researched or not covered by other stock brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our members on our past recommendation suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 



Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Evaluating & Picking Winning Stocks for Investment

It is very important to evaluate company using vital parameters before finalizing it as an investment candidate. Many investors who are new to stock markets simply look at share price, its 52 week high & low and put their hard earned money in equities to work. And as we all know, most of the times this approach never works.

We always suggest our readers to a proper & thorough research before taking any exposure in riskier asset like equities. Below are the 9 important parameters which are broadly used as tools for doing fundamental analysis of a company. Using these key parameters, Investors can pick winning stocks for their portfolio to get rewarded in long term.

1. Company’s History & Promoter's Credentials

This is one of the most important factor when one is looking to buy stock in an unknown company. It is best to look up the accounts for a couple of prior years and also read up the directors’ report. One should also do a Google search on the company and its promoters to see if they have ever been involved in shady or dubious deals.

2. Cash Flow

Cash flow is the amount of money coming in or going out of the business in a given period of time, say, one financial year. It helps to determine how much liquidity the company has. If a company is “cash flow positive”, it means that it is generating more cash from the business than it is paying out. This is a positive sign because it means the company has bargaining power. It is selling to its customers and receiving payment early while it is buying from the suppliers and paying them late.

If a company is “cash flow negative”, it is a dangerous sign because it means that the company has no liquidity and is desperately dependent on its suppliers and creditors. They can hold the company to ransom by choking its credit limits.

3. EBITDA 

EBITDA stands for “Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization”. EBITDA tells the investor, the profit that the company is making from its operations. If the EBITDA is negative, then it is a very negative sign because it means that the company is losing money in its core profitability.

The EBITDA margin is computed as a percentage of sales and EBITDA. For instance, in a company had sales of Rs. 100 and an EBITDA of Rs. 12, its EBITDA margin would be 12%. The higher the margin, the better it is.

Example: Hawkins Cookers’ EBITDA in the year ended 31.3.2012 was Rs. 49.61 crores. Its sales were Rs. 383.72 crores and so the EBITDA to Sales margin was 12.92%.

4. EPS (Earning Per Share)

EPS (Earning Per Share) = Net Profit / Number of Outstanding Shares

There are variants such as the “Diluted EPS” which means that even the shares that will be issued in the future pursuant to outstanding warrants or bonds are also considered.

Example: Hawkins Cookers’ net profit for the year ended 31.3.2012 was Rs. 30.08 crores. The number of equity shares were 56.88 lakhs and so the EPS is Rs. 56.83.

“Cash EPS” is worked out by taking the operating cash profits (without reducing non-cash expenditure such as depreciation).

5. P/E Ratio

The Price-Earnings (PE) Ratio is a valuation ratio of the company’s current share price compared to its earnings per share (EPS). In other words, how of a multiple of the EPS is one paying to buy the stock.

This criteria helps to identify, how cheap or expensive a stock is compared to its peers. It is calculated with the formula: 

Market Value per Share / Earnings Per Share (EPS)

For example, if the stock is available at Rs. 20 each and the EPS is Rs.5, the PE ratio is 20/5 = 4.

The PE is usually calculated on the EPS of the previous 12 months (the “trailing twelve months” (“TTM”).

The PE ratio can be used to benchmark companies within the same Industry or sector. For example, if one is comparing two PSU banks, if one has a PE of 5 and the other has a PE of 8, the question is why one is paying a premium for the second one and whether there is a valuation aberration somewhere that an investor can take advantage of.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s EPS in the year ended 31.3.2012 was Rs. 56.85 (as calculated above). The market price per share is Rs. 1,687 and so the PE ratio is 29.66.

6. Return on Equity (ROE)

ROE or Return on Equity indicates how efficiently the management is able to get a return from the shareholders’ equity. ROE is calculated with the following formula:

Net Income / Shareholders’ Equity

Example: Suppose a company earned Rs. 1,000 in profit and the total equity capital is Rs. Rs. 2000. The ROE is 1000/2000 = 50%.

Suppose another company in the same sector/ industry earned a ROE of 30%. You know which company is a more efficient utilizer of capital.

A variation of the same concept is the Return on Net Worth of RONW in which we take in not only the equity capital but also the retained earnings (reserves).

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s Net Worth (equity + reserves) as of 31.3.2012 was Rs. 51.59 crores while its net profit was Rs. 30.08 crores. The Return on Net Worth is 58%.

7. Debt Equity Ratio

Debt Equity Ratio is the proportion of debt to equity used to run the company’s operations. It is calculated with the following formula:

Total liabilities / equity share capital + reserves

When examining the health of your business, it's critical to take a long, hard look at company's debt-to-equity ratio. If Debt Equity ratios are increasing, meaning there's more debt in relation to equity, Company is being financed by creditors rather than by internal positive cash flow, which may be a dangerous trend.

The debt/equity ratio also depends on the industry in which the company operates. For example, capital-intensive industries such as capital goods, auto manufacturing tend to have a debt/equity ratio above 2, while IT companies / Consumer Goods companies with high brand equity have a debt/equity of under 0.5.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s equity + reserves as of 31.3.2012 was Rs. 51.59 crores while its debt was Rs. 12.20 crores. The debt equity ratio is 0.24.

8. Market Capitalisation

It is the value for the entire company can be bought on the stock market. It is derived by multiplying the total number of equity shares by the market price of each share.

This helps to determine whether the stock is undervalued or not. For instance, if a stock with a consistent profit of Rs. 100 is available at a market cap of Rs. 200 is undervalued in comparison to another stock with a similar profit but with a market cap of Rs. 500.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s has issued 52.90 lakh shares. The price per share is Rs. 1,819 and so the market cap of the company is Rs. 962 crores. This means, theoretically, that if you had Rs. 962 crores, you could buy all the shares of Hawkins Cooker.

9. Dividend Yield

‘Dividend Yield’ is a financial ratio that shows how much the company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price. It is calculated by the following formula:

Interim + Annual Dividends in the year/Price per share x 100

If you find that company is paying consistent dividend year after year with dividend yield of above 7%, you can think to invest in such stocks instead of blocking your money in fixed deposits. Here, you can think of some appreciation in stock price along with 7% returns on yearly basis through dividend payment. 

Example: Oil India declared a dividend of 475% (Rs. 47.50 per share). Because its market price is Rs. 489, the dividend yield is 47.50/489×100 = 9.7%.