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Sunday, March 15, 2020

Coronavirus Panic - Requires Courage to Buy this Fear!

Dear Reader,


As you know, equity markets have experienced turbulent times recently as investors keep watch of a deadly viral outbreak of COVID-19 initially in China and now in many other countries across globe causing economic and market damage. None of us (who have invested in Indian equities) can forget the extreme fear we have experienced on Friday morning, 13th March, when trading was halted for 45 minutes as benchmark indices were down by 10% hitting lower circuits on exchanges.

In fact, we were expecting some correction in broader markets i.e mid and small caps post rally in stock prices since beginning of this year, however it was not expected that stock prices will collapse like falling knife with global stock market crash. The crash was so brutal that Nifty was on lower circuit on Friday. The bloodbath on Dalal Street intensified on Thursday followed by Friday with benchmark indices entering into the bear market and logging their worst ever decline of more than 30% within a month in absolute terms before gaining some of the lost ground. Sensex and Nifty joined the global market rout following the US travel ban on European countries and World Health Organisation (WHO) declaration of coronavirus as a pandemic, pushing the threat beyond the global health emergency it had announced in January. This further created panic due to fear of world economy heading towards recession due to complete shutdown happening in impacted countries.

The recent carnage in stock prices is mainly due to aggressive selloff by FIIs, who have sold Indian equities worth more than Rs. 30,000 crore in this month. Such steep corrections in major indices and sharp fall in stock prices are shakeouts to create panic among investors. Mostly, retail investors give up during these painful times and take wrong decisions by selling stocks in panic due to fear of further erosion of capital. If not, they are the first to sell their stocks once stocks recover back to their buying price in future again making a mistake to sell early rather than holding stocks to get the maximum gains which comes considering better earnings with upturn in economic growth in future. Remember, best prices to invest in equities comes only during worst times like we have witnessed recently. Moreover, we must understand that the recent selloff by FIIs in Nifty seems to be justified considering major heavy weights of Nifty 50 were trading at lofty valuations. The fear of coronavirus has just acted as a catalyst for FIIs to book profits. 

One more thing which we need to understand is performance of Indian equity market compared to US Market (Nasdaq & Dow Jones) which was in bull run and rallied more than 30% last year. Nifty / Sensex rallied around 10% during last year just because of dozen of heavy weights companies of Nifty / Sensex. But actually, Indian economy is going through a slowdown and registered lowest GDP of 4.5% (in Sept 2019) over last 6 years. Hence, it will be prudent to say that we are in bear market since Jan 2018 while looking at small and mid size companies performance and stock prices. Looking at past data indicates that during bear phase, small and mid caps witness fall to the tune of 65% to 75% from their peak levels over period of 1 to 2 years and later start recovering their lost ground with revival in business with upturn in economy and many turn out to multibaggers from their lows again. We are mostly done with the carnage in broader markets over last 2 years and its time to buy this Panic. We advise you to plan your purchases in staggered manner so that you keep some cash in hand and use it in case the stock prices slips further in coming weeks.

If you are a long term investor, recent carnage should not bother you much. Panics like these must be used to buy stocks. But it need lot of courage to buy during such panic times, market do test our nerves and if our emotions take over our discipline habit of investing,  we may sell in panic instead of buying stocks. Its human psychology, buying during good times is much easier than buying during bad periods.

Small caps being most volatile tend to offer best investing opportunities during turbulent times. Retail investors usually make mistake by buying stocks at higher levels due to greed factor and later exit due to panic and fear of further erosion of capital. This phase has happened earlier also and good quality small and mid caps have always bounced back, not only recovering all losses but also delivering much higher returns from previous highs. Steep fall in stock prices of small & mid caps with good business fundamentals must be considered as buying opportunity considering attractive valuations, most of small & mid caps have already beaten down a lot over last 2 years and are now available at historically low valuations. BSE Small Cap Index which made a all time high of 20,184 in Jan 2018 closed at 11,761 on Friday, down by 41.7% from its peak. Similarly, BSE Mid Cap Index is down by 31% from its peak of Jan 2018.

We started 2020 with better participation in small & mid caps compared to large caps mainly on account of expected revival in Indian economy going forward but witnessed crash in stock prices this month due to extreme fear across globe. However, its important to note that major selloff is seen with heavy volumes in large caps due to FIIs selling in these companies whereas fall in stock prices in small and mid caps are with lower volumes which indicates that retailers might be selling their holdings too due to fear of further loosing their capital. Coronavirus will surely impact world economy due to disruption in supply chain along with dampening demand, which is happening due to lockdown in various countries to save human life. But things will get back to normal over few weeks or months which means disruption will be temporary and not permanent for most of the companies.

Recovery in stocks may be slower considering the fact that Indian economy is still not out of the woods, most of the small and mid size companies have reported subdued performance in Dec 19 quarter. As per data released by the Central Statistics Office on Friday, GDP grew by 4.7 percent in the third quarter of 2019-20, the Indian economy continued to remain sluggish in the three months ended Dec 2019. The pace of growth fell sharply in the third quarter and is estimated to slowdown further in the fourth quarter mainly on account of supply chain disruption caused due to coronavirus spread in China initially and many other countries over last few weeks.

However, gauged by the market’s performance during the onset of other infectious diseases, including SARS, Ebola and avian fluInvestors may have little to fear that the pathogen will sicken global stock market. The MSCI All countries world index has gained an average 0.4% in the month after an epidemic, 3.1% in next six-month period and 8.5% a year later. However, the severity of the virus, ultimately, will dictate the market’s reaction and just because indexes had managed to shrug off the contagion from outbreaks in the past doesn’t mean that will be the case this time


Brent Crude slips below 40 USD per barrel – A Big Positive for India

Falling crude prices and global supply chain base shifting from China can emerge as boon for Indian economy in medium to long term.

Brent Crude price has witnessed its worst start since 1991 as it has fallen by more than 40% since the start of 2020. The recent drop in oil prices is due to a collapse in demand following slash in crude prices by Saudi Arabia after Opec's supply pact collapsed. It is the world’s biggest importer of oil and the virus has infected thousands of citizens causing a huge loss of economic activity. The collapse of economic activity in China has disrupted global supply chains and in turn could further put pressure on oil demand.

Low oil prices would help India, the world's third-biggest importer of oil, to narrow its fiscal deficit at a time the government estimates to overshoot the target. Cheaper crude would also reduce fuel and freight costs for a host of companies helping contain inflation. The additional oil bounty can be utilized to create adequate space for an increase in government expenditure. Some pass-through of reduction in oil prices to domestic prices will also benefit industry in the form of lower input costs and may result in moderating inflation.

We have been saying this time and again - don’t try to time the market. We firmly believe that to get the best returns in the long term, investors should invest in a staggered and disciplined manner irrespective of market conditions. However, smart investors do wait for such times to increase their allocation toward equities to buy stocks at depressed prices  due to panic and fear in market. Investing through ups and downs of the market lets your investment grow and averages the purchasing cost. Equity investment is a serious business meant for long term investors. Trying to get in when the market goes up and getting out when there is a correction does not help you to create wealth.

Let us share some valuable insights to make you understand why we believe buying the right set of small and mid caps now can be a massive wealth creating once in a decade opportunity. To make our readers understand bull as well as bear phase of markets, we have covered long term monthly charts of some of our own small and mid cap stocks recommendations (released under Hidden Gems and Value Picks) over last 9 years which at one point of time were down by 50% to 70% from their peak but turned out to be mega multibagger stocks in longer run delivering upto 64X returns.

Below are the Monthly Chart (since Jan'10) of 8 Multibagger Small Cap Stocks released under Hidden Gems service. 

1. Camlin Fine Sciences (Hidden Gem released on 27th Mar'11) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 1

Above is the monthly chart of Camlin Fine Sciences which we recommended as Hidden Gem on 27 Mar’11 at 6.05*. The stock made life time high of 155 in Jan 2018 and later crashed to lows of 36.70. At current price of around 60, it is still a 10-Bagger for investors who bought it during lows of 2011 or 2013 but those who invested later during 2015 – 2017 period are bearing losses as of now. Current situation is more or less similar like that of 2013. Investors who bought Camlin Fine Science stock at highs of 2011 were holding it bearing losses till 2013. However, initial pain of 2 years rewarded the investors of 2011 later in year 2014-2015.

2. Kovai Medical (Hidden Gem released on 27th Oct'11) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 2
Now look at monthly chart of KMCH since Jan 2010, Kovai Medical stock price made a high of Rs. 176 in Feb 2010 and low of Rs. 89.50 in 2012 when overall market sentiments were negatives. It witnessed correction of nearly 50% over next 2 years. Later in 2014, stock rallied more than 400% in matter of 12 months. Kovai Medical price fell by 56% from high of 1480 in Jan 2018, a 8-Bagger stock even after severe fall in stock price for those who invested in the company in 2012.

3. Roto Pumps (Hidden Gem released on 05th Aug'12) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 3
Let us look at monthly chart of Roto Pumps since Jan 2010, stock which turned 10-Bagger in matter of 16 months. Roto Pumps which witnessed correction of 60% in stock price in 2011 from high of 2010, rallied by more than 900% later in 2014. At current levels, Roto Pumps is a 13-Bagger stock for investors who bought it at lows of 2011.

4. Acrysil (Hidden Gem released on 25th Nov'12) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 4
Above is the monthly chart of Acrysil  from Jan 2010. Acrysil stock price fell by 48% over 2 years from its peak of 2010. With improvement in fundamentals and start of bull cycle, stock delivered 588% returns within one year. It is still a 9-Bagger stock for investors who bought it in 2012 or 2013 and a 4-Bagger for those who invested at high in Jan 2010 and later experienced negative returns for nearly 4 years.

5. TCPL Packaging (Hidden Gem released on 31st Jan'13) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 5
Above is the monthly chart of TCPL Packaging since Jan 2010. In 2014 with start of bull cycle in broader market, stock delivered 1100% returns in 2 years, turning 12-Bagger stock from initial high of Nov 2010 and 22-Bagger from lows of 2011. TCPL Packaging is down by 60% from its all time high but it is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who bought it at highs of 2010 and still holding it.

6. Rane Brake Lining (Hidden Gem released on 31st May'14) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 6
Rane Brake Lining is our Hidden Gem stock recommended on 31 May 2014. During recent melt down in broader markets, stock witnessed price correction of 67% over last 2 years. Even when stock is down from all time high of 1450 hitting recent lows of 505, it is a 4-Bagger stock from highs of Nov 2010. Those who invested at high of Nov’10 were sitting on losses in the same stock for more than 3 years.

7. Visaka Industries (Hidden Gem released on 05th Jul'15) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 7



Above is the monthly chart of Visaka Industries since Jan 2010. Between Feb’16 to Jan’18, stock turned 9-Bagger delivering 853% returns in 2 years. Since then stock price has corrected by 68% making recent lows of 265 but is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the same company 7 to 8 years back during 2011 – 2012 and a 2-Bagger for those who invested in 2015 - 2016.

8. Stylam Industries (Hidden Gem released on 08th May'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 8
Stylam Industries has delivered maximum returns of 6304% in last 9 years. A mind boggling mega 64-Bagger stock which moved from lows of 13.35 (Nov 2011) to high of 855 (July 2017). We recommended Stylam Industries as Hidden Gem on 08 May 2016 and advised to book full profits around 800 levels considering expensive valuations of the company. Its interesting to note that the stock which turned out to be a mega multi-bagger delivering maximum returns of 64 times over last 9 years was down by more than 70% by Nov 2011 from its peak of July 2010.

Below are the Monthly Chart (since Jan'10) of 5 Multibagger Mid Cap Stocks released under Value Picks service.

1. Aurobindo Pharma (Value Pick released on 27th Jan'13) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 1



Aurobindo Pharma, a well known company from pharma sector, was recommended as our Value Pick stock on 27 Jan 2013. Stock which made low of 41.52* witnessing fall of 70% from its peak of Jan 2011 later delivered 1200% returns in matter of 2.5 years. Aurobindo Pharma is still a 15-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the company during lows of 2011.

2. Mindtree (Value Pick released on 23rd Mar'14) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 2

Let us look at monthly chart of our another Value Pick stock – Mindtree recommended on 23 Mar 2014. Mindtree also witnessed severe correction of 61% from its peak of Jan 2010 and tested patience of investors for nearly 4 years. Those who stay invested and sit patiently on the stock were rewarded over next 2 years as stock rallied from 195* to 795* delivering more than 300% returns.

3. Heritage Foods (Value Pick released on 03rd Jan'16)

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 3

Above is the monthly chart of Heritage Food of last 9 years. During bear phase of 2011 – 2012, stock price fell by 52% from its peak price of 2010. However,  the same company delivered 525% during bull phase in matter of 30 months. Stock made all time high of 884 in Oct 2017 turning mega 28-Bagger stock from lows of Jun 2012.

4. Can Fin Homes (Value Pick released on 29th Feb'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 4
Can Fin Homes witnessed severe correction of 67% from its peak during last year. However, the same stock created significant wealth for investors who invested in the company during beginning of this decade. Even after severe correction in stock price over last 2 years, stock is a 12-Bagger for investors who invested in the company at high of 2010 and a 20-Bagger who invested at lows of 2012.

5. Sonata Software (Value Pick released on 10th Jul'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 5
Above is the monthly chart of Sonata Software since Jan 2010. The stock price fell by 76% in 2 years from high of 69 made in April 2010. Investors who bought at highs of Apr 2010 were in losses for almost 5 years but those who held it tightly were rewarded handsomely over next 4 years. Sonata Software made all time high of 428.40 in Sept 2018 turning 7-Bagger for those who entered at highs of 2010.

Looking at long term charts of most of the companies with good businesses, you will realise that investors who entered in market by investing in small and mid caps during last 2 to 3 years have pain in their portfolio however those who invested in bad phase of market in 2011 - 2013 like that of today are still holding plenty of multibaggers in their portfolio. That is why its important to invest in equities keeping a real long term view. In fact, during turbulent times, we must increase investments / equity allocation in small / mid size companies which have good business fundamentals with better earning visibility and robust cash flows from their operations to get rewarded in big way in long run.

We also take this as an opportunity to inform our readers that our Combo - 1 (Annual subscription of Hidden Gems, Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days & Wealth-Builder) is the best selling subscription service at Saral Gyan, we have registered maximum subscription of Combo 1 since beginning of this year followed by Wealth-Builder and Combo 3 subscription. We keep on updating our members on our past recommendations suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

Below are the details of our services:

1. Hidden Gems (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks): Based on fundamental analysis, our equity analysts release one Hidden Gem research report every month with buy recommendation and share it with all Hidden Gems members. Stock finalized as Hidden Gem belongs to small / micro caps space with market cap of less than 500 Crores, expected returns from Hidden Gems is above 100% in period of 12 - 24 months. Once target is achieved, we inform our members whether they should continue to hold the stock or need to do partial / full profit booking. If fundamentals are intact and valuations are reasonable, we suggest to continue to hold the stock for long term for multibagger returns. Annual subscription charge of Hidden Gems is INR 10,000 9,000 under which you will receive total 12 Hidden Gems research reports (one on monthly basis). Click here to read more about Hidden Gems.

2. Value Picks (Mid Caps with Plenty of Upside Potential): Our equity analysts team consider Warren Buffet approach to short list stocks from mid cap segment as Value Picks. Market cap of Value Pick will range from 1000 crores to 10,000 crores. Holding period of Value Picks is 12 - 24 months and one can expect returns of 40-50%. Annual subscription charge of Value Picks is INR 6,000 5,400 under which you will receive total 12 Value Picks research reports (one on monthly basis). Click here to read more about Value Picks.

3. 15% @ 90 Days (Buy to Sell Stocks for Short Term Gain): Based on technical analysis, our team recommends one stock every month to our members. It’s a short term call under which you can expect returns of 15% within period of 90 Days. Annual subscription charge of 15% @ 90 Days is INR 4,000 under which you will receive 12 stock recommendations. We suggest lower allocation in 15% @ 90 Days stocks and higher allocation in Hidden Gems and Value Picks which are our portfolio stocks based on fundamental analysis.​ 15% @ 90 Days stocks recommendations are based on buy to sell and gain strategy, hence we suggest our members to book complete profits once target is achieved and exit in case target is not achieved or stock has broken its 2nd support level as per report. Click here to read more about 15% @ 90 Days.

4. Wealth-Builder (An Offline Portfolio Management Service): Wealth-Builder is our model portfolio of Rs. 10 lakhs and currently we are holding 16 stocks in our portfolio. We suggest higher allocation in our Wealth-Builder stocks which includes best of our Hidden Gems and Value Picks released during last couple of years. Our team suggest all our Wealth-Builder members to invest in the stocks which are part of our Wealth-Builder portfolio. Every month our team updates our Wealth-Builder members which stocks they need to buy / sell / hold with % allocation of these stocks in their portfolio, the suggested changes need to be replicated in the same proportion. Annual subscription charge of Wealth-Builder is INR 20,000 18,000 under which you will receive total 12-18 portfolio updates. We also review existing equity portfolio of our members and advise them which stocks to hold and which to exit based of fundamental analysis. Moreover, we do look at sector wise / stock wise allocation in the portfolio and advise in case of any corrective measure needs to be taken by increasing or decreasing the stock specific allocation. Our Wealth-Builder service is suitable for those investors who have an existing portfolio of at least 2 to 3 lakhs or planning to invest similar amount or more in equity market. Click here to read more about Wealth-Builder.

Avail attractive discounts by subscribing to our combo packs. Below are the details of our annual subscription charges, simply click on SUBSCRIBE! link to subscribe to our services online using debit / credit card or net banking facility.

SARAL GYAN
SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE
ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION
PRICE
PAY ONLINE 
CARD / NET BANKING 
Hidden Gems
Rs. 10,000
Value Picks
Rs. 6,000
15% @ 90 Days
Rs. 4,000
Wealth-Builder
Rs. 20,000
Combo 1: HG + VP + WB + 15%
Rs. 32,000
Combo 2: HG + VP + 15%
Rs. 16,000
Combo 3: HG + VP
Rs. 14,000
Combo 4: HG + 15%
Rs. 12,000
Combo 5: VP + 15%
Rs. 9,000

In case if you are not comfortable in subscribing online, you can make the payment through cheque / cash deposit / NEFT transfer in any of our bank and writing back to us sharing transaction details. Click here for bank details.

Do contact us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Ideal Time to Invest in 5 Small Caps with 5-Bagger Potential

Dear Member,

We strongly believe that carnage in stock prices of small and mid caps in 2019 is overdone and is giving once in a decade opportunity to long term investors to invest in equities at mouth watering valuations to get rewarded handsomely. While many retail investors panicked with continuous fall in stock prices over last 12 months, we are excited considering the fact that stock market after a long time have witnessed such a panic selloff due to slowdown in economy and fear of recession, giving once in a decade opportunity to invest in good quality small and mid size companies at dirt cheap valuations. 

We are glad to inform you that our equity analysts have finalized the best investment opportunities from small cap segment which can deliver excellent returns during next 5 years. Our team has released Special Report - 5 Stocks - Potential 5-Baggers in 5 Years on 30th July 2019 and we have shared the report with our Hidden Gems, Value Picks and Wealth-Builder members. The objective of this report is to achieve average annualized returns of 38% each year to achieve 5x returns in period of next 5 years by investing in 5 small caps.

As illustrated in table below, if these 5 companies generate returns on your investment @ 38% annually, your investment will be 5 fold in period of 5 years. Even if we take conservative scenario considering that only one out of five achieve CAGR of 38% and remaining four delivers CAGR of 20%, your investment will be trebled (3 times) in period of 5 years which is also good compared to returns from any other asset classes like Fixed Deposits, Real Estate, Metals – Gold / Silver or even major indices - Sensex and Nifty.

Investment of 5 lakhs in 5 Years at CAGR of 38%
However, our team while selecting these stocks is confident enough to achieve 5 times returns in period of 5 years by monitoring performance of these companies and taking corrective measures in case any of them does not perform up to our expectations. 

Few important parameters which have been looked by our equity analysts while finalizing the stock selection are as under: 
  • Market leader in the business / any one segment in which the company is operating in.
  • Scalable business with significant moat (sustainable competitive advantage)
  • Prudent Management with promoters increasing their shares holding in the company 
  • Low / manageable debt on books with healthy cash flows.
  • CAGR of above 15% with increase in operating and net profit margins in last 5 years.
  • Consistent dividend payment with dividend yield above 1% in last 5 years
  • Growing EPS, low PE ratio with increasing ROE and ROCE over last 5 years.
  • Low share holdings of Institutions (FIIs & DIIs) to get first mover advantage.
Each parameter is equally important and plays a vital role to ensure that you get healthy returns on your investment with limited downside risk in long term. One of the important key to successful investing is to pick the right business at decent valuations. Once you buy shares, you own a part of company’s business.

While determining which stocks to consider as a long term investment opportunity for generating 5-Bagger returns, we looked into below 5 value drivers:

i) Does the company offer a product or service that has broad acceptability in a large, growing market?
ii) Does the company have healthy margins, and are they sustainable over a longer period of time?
iii) Can company generate significant amounts of cash without resorting to expensive debt?
iv) Can company return the cash generated to its shareholders by declaring generous dividends?
v) Is the company’s management honest and competent, with hunger to grow business at a faster pace?

We at Saral Gyan recommend good businesses to buy with long term view and any change in our stock views will be based on strong structural trend and not on any short term movement.

Major indices - Sensex and Nifty are hovering near all-time highs in recent times. However, BSE Small & Mid Cap Index is down by 33% and 22% respectively from their peak levels made in Jan 2018. During last 20 months, most of the small and mid cap companies stock prices have witnessed severe fall giving an opportunity to long term investors to buy good quality companies at significantly lower valuations. Market may correct by another few percentage points in near term. However, if you are a long term investor, you must avoid timing the market and consider ongoing downfall to start accumulating high quality companies with strong fundamentals to get rewarded in big way in long term.

Special Report - 5 Stocks - Potential 5-Baggers in 5 Years
Considering current situation in broader markets as a buying opportunity, we released our next issue of special report 5 Stocks - Potential 5 Baggers in 5 Years.  Our report is released on 30th July 2019 with an objective to achieve average annualized returns of 38% each year to achieve 5-Bagger returns in period of next 5 years. Please note that stocks selection under this report is done on the basis of fundamental analysis considering above mentioned parameters. These 5 Stocks are small cap companies with a market capital of less than 500 crores. Our research team have included our Hidden Gems / Value Picks stocks released in past having potential to multiply your investment by 5 times within 5 years.

We would like to inform our readers that our 1st Special Report titled 5 Hidden Gems stocks - Potential 5-Baggers within 5 Years was released by our research team on 26th July’13, it was similar time like that of today when there was lot of pessimism around the market and we find it as one of the best time to invest in some of the fundamentally strong small cap companies. Later in April 2014, we released update on our 5 Hidden Gems - Potential 5-Baggers within 5 Years report in which we included company’s performance, updates and development in these companies along with our views and recommendation with buy / sell / hold decisions and also the fair price range to accumulate these stocks.

Update on this report was published in April'14 which we shared with all our Hidden Gems and Wealth-Builder members. We are glad to share that all 5 Hidden Gems stocks selected by us gave astonishing returns in the range of 210% to 520% within 2 years and investment made by our members in these stocks have already multiplied by 4.5 times. 
As our objective was almost achieved, we decided to make our report public. This will help our readers to understand the potential of investing in good companies in bad times with a long term view.

Click here to Read/Download our Special Report - 5 Hidden Gems stocks - Potential 5-Baggers within 5 Years update released on 20th April 2014. 

If we find any major change in fundamentals in any of these 5 stocks which can impact their performance going forward, we will inform you to take corrective measures. For Ex: We informed our members to exit Ador Fontech (one of the 5 Hidden Gems stocks covered in Special Report) and replaced it with Atul Auto which was offering better investment opportunity at that point of time as mentioned in the report. This proved to a great move for our members as Atul Auto has given much better returns compared to Ador Fontech during next 12 months.

Note: If you wish to receive our Special Report 5 Stocks : Potential 5-Baggers in 5 Years (released on 30th July 2019), simply subscribe to Hidden GemsWealth-BuilderValue Picks or any of our combo packs and we will send you the report without any extra charges! We have shared this report with all our existing subscribers of Hidden GemsWealth-Builder and Value Picks without any extra cost. Simply subscribe to our services and grab our Special Report - Potential 5-Baggers in 5 Years for Free!

Avail attractive discounts by subscribing to our combo packs. Below are the details of our annual subscription charges, simply click on SUBSCRIBE! link to subscribe to our services online using debit / credit card or net banking facility.

SARAL GYAN
SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE
ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION
PRICE
PAY ONLINE 
CARD / NET BANKING 
Hidden Gems
Rs. 10,000
Value Picks
Rs. 6,000
15% @ 90 Days
Rs. 4,000
Wealth-Builder
Rs. 20,000
Combo 1: HG + VP + WB + 15%
Rs. 32,000
Combo 2: HG + VP + 15%
Rs. 16,000
Combo 3: HG + VP
Rs. 14,000
Combo 4: HG + 15%
Rs. 12,000
Combo 5: VP + 15%
Rs. 9,000

In case if you are not comfortable in subscribing online, you can make the payment through cheque / cash deposit / NEFT transfer in any of our bank and writing back to us sharing transaction details. Click here for bank details.

Do contact us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Also Read: Multibagger Stocks which gave upto 64X Returns in 9 Years


Wish you happy & safe Investing. 


Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Spend Less Save More & Be Greedy to Buy Small Cap Stocks!

Dear Reader,

If you are the one who was investing in small cap stocks in the year like 2016 and 2017 and stopped investing now due to recent carnage in broader markets, believe us you are making a bigger mistake. Do not allow your emotions to take control of your equity investment decisions, instead inculcate habit of investing in discipline manner.

While major indices Sensex & Nifty is hovering near to at all time high delivering returns of 17%  and 12% respectively since 1st Jan 2018, BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap index is down delivering negative returns of -18% and -30% respectively during the same period. With divergence of ~47% since Jan 2018 between small caps and Sensex large cap stocks, its very likely that we can see strong out performance from small and mid-caps delivering significantly higher returns over next 12 to 24 months compared to large caps.

Economic Revival will lead to Outperformance of Mid & Small Caps in FY 2020-21

With GDP growth falling to 6 years low of 5% in the June quarter, equity funds continue to shift their preference towards selected large / mega caps where there is certainty of earnings & growth, also termed as quality by market experts.

Fund flows in equity market over last 2 years have taken risk off mode where certainty matters the most irrespective of expensive valuations of these companies. Hence, we have seen Nifty / Sensex touching new highs this year (due to the rise in stock prices of handful of companies having high contribution in index) where as broader indices i.e. BSE Mid & Small Cap Index sliding down further making new 52 week lows this year.

Due to fear and extreme pessimism in the stock market, we have seen money chasing quality stocks since Jan 2018. However, once we see the economic revival, market will turn quickly to risk on mode and we will see funds flowing back to mid and small caps available at historically low valuations. We believe underpriced moderate growth stocks will deliver far superior returns than overvalued high growth stocks in coming years. Current undervaluation of many of our recommended stocks give us further comfort to keep on holding & accumulating them during these painful period.

Investors participation in broader market is expected to improve significantly with initial signs of revival in GDP growth. That spells opportunity, as many good stocks from the mid and small cap segments are still ruling at multi-year low valuations, offering buying opportunities. Hence, this is the best time to build up equity portfolio gradually by investing in high quality small and mid caps backed by strong business fundamentals.

Small caps being most volatile tend to offer best investing opportunities during turbulent times. Retail investors usually make mistake by buying stocks at higher levels due to greed factor and later exit due to panic and fear of further erosion of capital. This phase has happened earlier also and good quality small and mid caps have always bounced back, not only recovering all losses but also delivering much higher returns from previous highs. Good sentiments as well as bad sentiments do not last forever.

If you analyse BSE Small Cap Index YoY returns, you will realise that small cap index not only recovered but also delivered astonishing returns in short span of time once tide turns favourable. In last 16 years, small cap index delivered significantly higher returns in single year every four years. In past, we experienced fierce rally in small caps in years like 2007, 2009, 2014 and 2017. During good times when overall economy is doing well, small cap stocks use to deliver mind boggling returns turning multibaggers in period of 12 to 24 months.
BSE Small Cap Index went up by 69% in 2014 and during the same year numerous small and mid cap stocks turned multi-bagger. Scenario was similar in 2017 when BSE Small Cap Index rallied by 58%, since Jan 2018 broader market went into bear grip with significant sell off in many small and mid caps due to expensive valuations and series of negatives developments followed by slowdown in economy.

Coming back to the current situation, the small cap index is down by 35% from its peak made in January 2018. The liquidity crisis in NBFCs, the DHFL and IL&FS defaults, series of rating downgrades by rating agencies, lenders dumping stocks of debt laden companies and recent slowdown in economic growth have not only taken the steam out of small caps but also made companies available at significantly discounted valuations compared to large caps. Fear and misinformation has shattered investor’s confidence and hence quality businesses are back to cheap valuations after a long time. Post steep fall in stock prices over last 20 months, many small caps are now offering once in a decade investment opportunity!

However, the greed to get multibagger returns by investing in small and mid caps in year like 2016 & 2017 turned out to fear in 2019. Inspite of attractive valuations of many small and mid size companies backed by sound business fundamentals, no body wish to look at this space now. Investors who were willing to pay much higher price for small and mid cap stocks in 2017 are shying away to invest in these stocks which are now available at lower than halve the prices of 2017.

The reason is the carnage in stock prices of many well-known small and mid cap companies. Individual small and mid cap stocks are touching 52-week lows every other day and individual damage to most of the stocks in this category is to the tune of 50-60%, some even more than that. Such severe and fast erosion of capital in small and mid caps have butchered investors interest towards this category. Retail investors have taken the back foot and lost their faith and conviction towards investing in small and mid caps due to existing pain in their portfolios.

However, we are quite excited about opportunities emerging in small and mid cap space during this year. The fall in stock prices of many small and mid caps by more than 50% from their peaks has not happened for the first time. This has happened in past in years like 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 and companies with good business fundamentals have always bounced back strongly later delivering multi-bagger returns. When overall market sentiments are negative like we are witnessing now, quality businesses also face the heat. As bad stocks go down, good stocks go down with them too. But good companies make a stronger come back with earning revival once economy cycle starts its upturn.

We have been saying this time and again - don’t try to time the market. We firmly believe that to get the best returns in the long term, investors should invest in a staggered and disciplined manner irrespective of market conditions. Investing through ups and downs of the market lets your investment grow and averages the purchasing cost. Equity investment is a serious business meant for long term investors. Trying to get in when the market goes up and getting out when there is a correction does not help you to create wealth.

Let us share some valuable insights to make you understand why we believe buying the right set of small and mid caps now can be a massive wealth creating once in a decade opportunity. To make our readers understand bull as well as bear phase of markets, we have covered long term monthly charts of some of our own small and mid cap stocks recommendations (released under Hidden Gems and Value Picks) over last 9 years which at one point of time were down by 50% to 70% from their peak but turned out to be mega multibagger stocks in longer run delivering upto 64X returns.

Below are the Monthly Chart (since Jan'10) of 8 Multibagger Small Cap Stocks released under Hidden Gems service. 

1. Camlin Fine Sciences (Hidden Gem released on 27th Mar'11) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 1

Above is the monthly chart of Camlin Fine Sciences which we recommended as Hidden Gem on 27 Mar’11 at 6.05*. The stock made life time high of 155 in Jan 2018 and later crashed to lows of 36.70. At current price of around 60, it is still a 10-Bagger for investors who bought it during lows of 2011 or 2013 but those who invested later during 2015 – 2017 period are bearing losses as of now. Current situation is more or less similar like that of 2013. Investors who bought Camlin Fine Science stock at highs of 2011 were holding it bearing losses till 2013. However, initial pain of 2 years rewarded the investors of 2011 later in year 2014-2015.

2. Kovai Medical (Hidden Gem released on 27th Oct'11) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 2
Now look at monthly chart of KMCH since Jan 2010, Kovai Medical stock price made a high of Rs. 176 in Feb 2010 and low of Rs. 89.50 in 2012 when overall market sentiments were negatives. It witnessed correction of nearly 50% over next 2 years. Later in 2014, stock rallied more than 400% in matter of 12 months. Kovai Medical price fell by 56% from high of 1480 in Jan 2018, a 8-Bagger stock even after severe fall in stock price for those who invested in the company in 2012.

3. Roto Pumps (Hidden Gem released on 05th Aug'12) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 3
Let us look at monthly chart of Roto Pumps since Jan 2010, stock which turned 10-Bagger in matter of 16 months. Roto Pumps which witnessed correction of 60% in stock price in 2011 from high of 2010, rallied by more than 900% later in 2014. At current levels, Roto Pumps is a 13-Bagger stock for investors who bought it at lows of 2011.

4. Acrysil (Hidden Gem released on 25th Nov'12) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 4
Above is the monthly chart of Acrysil  from Jan 2010. Acrysil stock price fell by 48% over 2 years from its peak of 2010. With improvement in fundamentals and start of bull cycle, stock delivered 588% returns within one year. It is still a 9-Bagger stock for investors who bought it in 2012 or 2013 and a 4-Bagger for those who invested at high in Jan 2010 and later experienced negative returns for nearly 4 years.

5. TCPL Packaging (Hidden Gem released on 31st Jan'13) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 5
Above is the monthly chart of TCPL Packaging since Jan 2010. In 2014 with start of bull cycle in broader market, stock delivered 1100% returns in 2 years, turning 12-Bagger stock from initial high of Nov 2010 and 22-Bagger from lows of 2011. TCPL Packaging is down by 60% from its all time high but it is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who bought it at highs of 2010 and still holding it.

6. Rane Brake Lining (Hidden Gem released on 31st May'14) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 6
Rane Brake Lining is our Hidden Gem stock recommended on 31 May 2014. During recent melt down in broader markets, stock witnessed price correction of 67% over last 2 years. Even when stock is down from all time high of 1450 hitting recent lows of 505, it is a 4-Bagger stock from highs of Nov 2010. Those who invested at high of Nov’10 were sitting on losses in the same stock for more than 3 years.

7. Visaka Industries (Hidden Gem released on 05th Jul'15) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 7



Above is the monthly chart of Visaka Industries since Jan 2010. Between Feb’16 to Jan’18, stock turned 9-Bagger delivering 853% returns in 2 years. Since then stock price has corrected by 68% making recent lows of 265 but is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the same company 7 to 8 years back during 2011 – 2012 and a 2-Bagger for those who invested in 2015 - 2016.

8. Stylam Industries (Hidden Gem released on 08th May'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 8
Stylam Industries has delivered maximum returns of 6304% in last 9 years. A mind boggling mega 64-Bagger stock which moved from lows of 13.35 (Nov 2011) to high of 855 (July 2017). We recommended Stylam Industries as Hidden Gem on 08 May 2016 and advised to book full profits around 800 levels considering expensive valuations of the company. Its interesting to note that the stock which turned out to be a mega multi-bagger delivering maximum returns of 64 times over last 9 years was down by more than 70% by Nov 2011 from its peak of July 2010.

Below are the Monthly Chart (since Jan'10) of 5 Multibagger Mid Cap Stocks released under Value Picks service.

1. Aurobindo Pharma (Value Pick released on 27th Jan'13) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 1



Aurobindo Pharma, a well known company from pharma sector, was recommended as our Value Pick stock on 27 Jan 2013. Stock which made low of 41.52* witnessing fall of 70% from its peak of Jan 2011 later delivered 1200% returns in matter of 2.5 years. Aurobindo Pharma is still a 15-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the company during lows of 2011.

2. Mindtree (Value Pick released on 23rd Mar'14) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 2

Let us look at monthly chart of our another Value Pick stock – Mindtree recommended on 23 Mar 2014. Mindtree also witnessed severe correction of 61% from its peak of Jan 2010 and tested patience of investors for nearly 4 years. Those who stay invested and sit patiently on the stock were rewarded over next 2 years as stock rallied from 195* to 795* delivering more than 300% returns.

3. Heritage Foods (Value Pick released on 03rd Jan'16)

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 3

Above is the monthly chart of Heritage Food of last 9 years. During bear phase of 2011 – 2012, stock price fell by 52% from its peak price of 2010. However,  the same company delivered 525% during bull phase in matter of 30 months. Stock made all time high of 884 in Oct 2017 turning mega 28-Bagger stock from lows of Jun 2012.

4. Can Fin Homes (Value Pick released on 29th Feb'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 4
Can Fin Homes witnessed severe correction of 67% from its peak during last year. However, the same stock created significant wealth for investors who invested in the company during beginning of this decade. Even after severe correction in stock price over last 2 years, stock is a 12-Bagger for investors who invested in the company at high of 2010 and a 20-Bagger who invested at lows of 2012.

5. Sonata Software (Value Pick released on 10th Jul'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 5
Above is the monthly chart of Sonata Software since Jan 2010. The stock price fell by 76% in 2 years from high of 69 made in April 2010. Investors who bought at highs of Apr 2010 were in losses for almost 5 years but those who held it tightly were rewarded handsomely over next 4 years. Sonata Software made all time high of 428.40 in Sept 2018 turning 7-Bagger for those who entered at highs of 2010.

Looking at long term charts of most of the companies with good businesses, you will realise that investors who entered in market by investing in small and mid caps during last 2 to 3 years have pain in their portfolio however those who invested in bad phase of market in 2011 - 2013 like that of today are still holding plenty of multibaggers in their portfolio. That is why its important to invest in equities keeping a real long term view. In fact, during turbulent times, we must increase investments / equity allocation in small / mid size companies which have good business fundamentals with better earning visibility and robust cash flows from their operations to get rewarded in big way in long run.

Best Selling Subscription Service
We also take this as an opportunity to inform our readers that our Combo - 1 (Annual subscription of Hidden Gems, Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days & Wealth-Builder) is the best selling subscription service at Saral Gyan, we have registered maximum subscription of Combo 1 since beginning of this year followed by Wealth-Builder and Combo 3 subscription. We keep on updating our members on our past recommendations suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

Below are the details of our services:

1. Hidden Gems (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks): Based on fundamental analysis, our equity analysts release one Hidden Gem research report every month with buy recommendation and share it with all Hidden Gems members. Stock finalized as Hidden Gem belongs to small / micro caps space with market cap of less than 500 Crores, expected returns from Hidden Gems is above 100% in period of 12 - 24 months. Once target is achieved, we inform our members whether they should continue to hold the stock or need to do partial / full profit booking. If fundamentals are intact and valuations are reasonable, we suggest to continue to hold the stock for long term for multibagger returns. Annual subscription charge of Hidden Gems is INR 10,000 under which you will receive total 12 Hidden Gems research reports (one on monthly basis). Click here to read more about Hidden Gems.

2. Value Picks (Mid Caps with Plenty of Upside Potential): Our equity analysts team consider Warren Buffet approach to short list stocks from mid cap segment as Value Picks. Market cap of Value Pick will range from 1000 crores to 10,000 crores. Holding period of Value Picks is 12 - 24 months and one can expect returns of 40-50%. Annual subscription charge of Value Picks is INR 6,000 under which you will receive total 12 Value Picks research reports (one on monthly basis). Click here to read more about Value Picks.

3. 15% @ 90 Days (Buy to Sell Stocks for Short Term Gain): Based on technical analysis, our team recommends one stock every month to our members. It’s a short term call under which you can expect returns of 15% within period of 90 Days. Annual subscription charge of 15% @ 90 Days is INR 4,000 under which you will receive 12 stock recommendations. We suggest lower allocation in 15% @ 90 Days stocks and higher allocation in Hidden Gems and Value Picks which are our portfolio stocks based on fundamental analysis.​ 15% @ 90 Days stocks recommendations are based on buy to sell and gain strategy, hence we suggest our members to book complete profits once target is achieved and exit in case target is not achieved or stock has broken its 2nd support level as per report. Click here to read more about 15% @ 90 Days.

4. Wealth-Builder (An Offline Portfolio Management Service): Wealth-Builder is our model portfolio of Rs. 10 lakhs and currently we are holding 16 stocks in our portfolio. We suggest higher allocation in our Wealth-Builder stocks which includes best of our Hidden Gems and Value Picks released during last couple of years. Our team suggest all our Wealth-Builder members to invest in the stocks which are part of our Wealth-Builder portfolio. Every month our team updates our Wealth-Builder members which stocks they need to buy / sell / hold with % allocation of these stocks in their portfolio, the suggested changes need to be replicated in the same proportion. Annual subscription charge of Wealth-Builder is INR 20,000 under which you will receive total 12-18 portfolio updates. We also review existing equity portfolio of our members and advise them which stocks to hold and which to exit based of fundamental analysis. Moreover, we do look at sector wise / stock wise allocation in the portfolio and advise in case of any corrective measure needs to be taken by increasing or decreasing the stock specific allocation. Our Wealth-Builder service is suitable for those investors who have an existing portfolio of at least 2 to 3 lakhs or planning to invest similar amount or more in equity market. Click here to read more about Wealth-Builder.

Do contact us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan