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Showing posts with label Wealth-Builder. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wealth-Builder. Show all posts

Friday, July 26, 2019

Small Caps - Biggest Wealth Creating Opportunity of 2019

Dear Reader,

There is lot of hopelessness along with fear towards small and mid caps in 2019.  The reason is the carnage in stock prices of many well-known companies. Retail investors have taken the back foot and lost their faith and conviction towards investing in small and mid caps due to existing pain in their portfolios.

Despite that we are quite excited about opportunities emerging in small and mid cap space. You may argue that most of small and mid caps have wiped out your hard earned gains over last couple of years. In fact those who invested in small caps over last 2 years are sitting on significantly higher losses and may be thinking to stay away from them.

However, we beg to differ. We firmly believe that these are the opportune times to invest in broader markets instead of large caps. During bear phase in broader markets, negative sentiments around small and mid caps have brought down excellent businesses down to historically low valuations. The fall in stock prices of many small and mid caps by more than 50% from their peaks has not happened for the first time. This has happened in past and companies with good business fundamentals have always bounced back strongly.  When overall market sentiments are negative like we are witnessing now, quality businesses also face the heat. As bad stocks go down, good stocks go down with them too. But good companies make a stronger come back with earning revival once economy cycle starts its upturn.

Let us share some valuable insights to make you understand why we believe buying the right set of small and mid caps now can be a massive wealth creating opportunity in the long run. To make our readers understand bull as well as bear phase of markets, we have covered long term monthly charts of some of our own small and mid cap stocks recommendations (released under Hidden Gems and Value Picks) over last 9 years which at one point of time were down by 50% to 70% from their peak but turned out to be multibagger stocks in longer run delivering 5x to 64x returns.

Below are the Monthly Chart (since Jan'10) of 8 Multibagger Small Cap Stocks released under Hidden Gems service. 

1. Camlin Fine Sciences (Hidden Gem released on 27th Mar'11) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 1 - Camlin Fine Sciences

Above is the monthly chart of Camlin Fine Sciences which we recommended as Hidden Gem on 27 Mar’11 at 6.05*. The stock made life time high of 155 in Jan 2018 and later crashed to lows of 36.70. At current price of around 60, it is still a 10-Bagger for investors who bought it during lows of 2011 or 2013 but those who invested later during 2015 – 2017 period are bearing losses as of now.

2. Kovai Medical (Hidden Gem released on 27th Oct'11) - Read Old Report

Above is the monthly chart of KMCH since Jan 2010, Kovai Medical stock price made a high of Rs. 176 in Feb 2010 and low of Rs. 89.50 in 2012 when overall market sentiments were negatives. Later in 2014, stock rallied more than 400% in matter of 12 months. Kovai Medical price fell by 56% from high of 1480 in Jan 2018, a 8-Bagger stock even after severe fall in stock price for those who invested in the company in 2012.

3. Roto Pumps (Hidden Gem released on 05th Aug'12) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 3 - Roto Pumps
Let us look at monthly chart of Roto Pumps since Jan 2010, stock which turned 10-Bagger in matter of 16 months. Roto Pumps which witnessed correction of 60% in stock price in 2011 from high of 2010, rallied by more than 900% later in 2014. At current levels, Roto Pumps is a 13-Bagger stock for investors who bought it at lows of 2011.

4. Acrysil (Hidden Gem released on 25th Nov'12) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 4 - Acrysil
Above is the monthly chart of Acrysil  from Jan 2010. Acrysil stock price fell by 48% over 2 years from its peak of 2010. With improvement in fundamentals and start of bull cycle, stock delivered 588% returns within one year. It is still a 9-Bagger stock for investors who bought it in 2012 or 2013 and a 4-Bagger for those who invested at high in Jan 2010 and later experienced negative returns for nearly 4 years.

5. TCPL Packaging (Hidden Gem released on 31st Jan'13) - Read Old Report

Above is the monthly chart of TCPL Packaging since Jan 2010. In 2014 with start of bull cycle in broader market, stock delivered 1100% returns in 2 years, turning 12-Bagger stock from initial high of Nov 2010 and 22-Bagger from lows of 2011. TCPL Packaging is down by 60% from its all time high but it is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who bought it at highs of 2010 and still holding it.

6. Rane Brake Lining (Hidden Gem released on 31st May'14) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 6 - Rane Brake Lining
Rane Brake Lining is our Hidden Gem stock recommended on 31 May 2014. During recent melt down in broader markets, stock witnessed price correction of 67% over last 2 years. Even when stock is down from all time high of 1450 hitting recent lows of 505, it is a 4-Bagger stock from highs of Nov 2010. Those who invested at high of Nov’10 were sitting on losses in the same stock for more than 3 years.

7. Visaka Industries (Hidden Gem released on 05th Jul'15) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 7 - Visaka Industries


Above is the monthly chart of Visaka Industries since Jan 2010. Between Feb’16 to Jan’18, stock turned 9-Bagger delivering 853% returns in 2 years. Since then stock price has corrected by 68% making recent lows of 265 but is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the same company 7 to 8 years back during 2011 – 2012 and a 2-Bagger for those who invested in 2015 - 2016.

8. Stylam Industries (Hidden Gem released on 08th May'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Small Cap Stock 8 - Stylam Industries
Stylam Industries has delivered maximum returns of 6304% in last 9 years. A mind boggling mega 64-Bagger stock which moved from lows of 13.35 (Nov 2011) to high of 855 (July 2017). We recommended Stylam Industries as Hidden Gem on 08 May 2016 and advised to book full profits around 800 levels  considering expensive valuations of the company. Its interesting to note that the stock which delivered maximum returns of 64 times over last 9 years was down by more than 70% by Nov 2011 from its peak of July 2010.

Below are the Monthly Chart (since Jan'10) of 5 Multibagger Mid Cap Stocks released under Value Picks service.

1. Aurobindo Pharma (Value Pick released on 27th Jan'13) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 1 - Aurobindo Pharma


Aurobindo Pharma, a well known company from pharma sector, was recommended as our Value Pick stock on 27 Jan 2013. Stock which made low of 41.52* witnessing fall of 70% from its peak of Jan 2011 later delivered 1200% returns in matter of 2.5 years. Aurobindo Pharma is still a 15-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the company during lows of 2011.

2. Mindtree (Value Pick released on 23rd Mar'14) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 2 - Mindtree

Let us look at monthly chart of our another Value Pick stock – Mindtree recommended on 23 Mar 2014. Mindtree also witnessed severe correction of 61% from its peak of Jan 2010 and tested patience of investors for nearly 4 years. Those who stay invested and sit patiently on the stock were rewarded over next 2 years as stock rallied from 195* to 795* delivering more than 300% returns.

3. Heritage Foods (Value Pick released on 03rd Jan'16)

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 3 - Heritage Foods

Above is the monthly chart of Heritage Food of last 9 years. During bear phase of 2011 – 2012, stock price fell by 52% from its peak price of 2010. However,  the same company delivered 525% during bull phase in matter of 30 months. Stock made all time high of 884 in Oct 2017 turning mega 28-Bagger stock from lows of Jun 2012.

4. Can Fin Homes (Value Pick released on 29th Feb'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 4 - Can Fin Homes
Can Fin Homes witnessed severe correction of 67% from its peak during last year. However, the same stock created significant wealth for investors who invested in the company during beginning of this decade. Even after severe correction in stock price over last 2 years, stock is a 12-Bagger for investors who invested in the company at high of 2010 and a 20-Bagger who invested at lows of 2012.

5. Sonata Software (Value Pick released on 10th Jul'16) - Read Old Report

Multibagger Mid Cap Stock 5 - Sonata Software
Above is the monthly chart of Sonata Software since Jan 2010. The stock price fell by 76% in 2 years from high of 69 made in April 2010. Investors who bought at highs of Apr 2010 were in losses for almost 5 years but those who held it tightly were rewarded handsomely over next 4 years. Sonata Software made all time high of 428.40 in Sept 2018 turning 7-Bagger for those who entered at highs of 2010.

Looking at long term charts of most of the companies with good businesses, you will realise that investors who entered in market by investing in small and mid caps during last 2 to 3 years have pain in their portfolio however those who invested in bad phase of market in 2011 - 2013 like that of today are still holding plenty of multibaggers in their portfolio. That is why its important to invest in equities keeping a real long term view. In fact, during turbulent times, we must increase investments / equity allocation in small / mid size companies which have good business fundamentals with better earning visibility and robust cash flows from their operations to get rewarded in big way in long run.

BSE Small Cap Index went up by 69% in 2014 and during the same year numerous small and mid cap stocks turned multi-bagger delivering mind boggling returns. Scenario was similar in 2017 when BSE Small Cap Index rallied by 58%, later broader market went into bear grip with significant sell off in many small and mid caps due to expensive valuations and series of negatives developments followed by slowdown in economy.
BSE Small Cap Index YoY Returns since 2003
If you analyse BSE Small Cap Index YoY returns, you will realise that small cap index not only recovered but also delivered astonishing returns in short span of time once tide turns favourable. In last 16 years, small cap index delivered significantly higher returns in single year every four years. In past, we experienced fierce rally in small caps in years like 2007, 2009, 2014 and 2017. We have seen in monthly charts of various stocks, how these stocks turned multibaggers in period of 12 to 24 months during bull phase of stock market.

Coming back to the current situation, the small cap index is down by 35% from its peak made in January 2018. The liquidity crisis in NBFCs, the DHFL and IL&FS defaults, series of rating downgrades by rating agencies, lenders dumping stocks of debt laden companies and recent slowdown in economic growth have taken the steam out of small caps. Fear and misinformation has shattered investor’s confidence and hence quality businesses are back to cheap valuations.

Do not stop investing in small caps looking at these turbulent times, its time to do the opposite, this phase has happened before and small and mid caps have always bounced back. Good sentiments as well as bad sentiments do not last forever.
ription of Hidden Gems, Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days & Wealth-Builder) is the best selling subscription service at Saral Gyan, we have registered maximum subscription of Combo 1 since beginning of this year followed by Combo 2 subscription. We keep on updating our members on our past recommendations suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

Below are the details of our services:

1. Hidden Gems (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks): Based on fundamental analysis, our equity analysts release one Hidden Gem research report every month with buy recommendation and share it with all Hidden Gems members. Stock finalized as Hidden Gem belongs to small / micro caps space with market cap of less than 500 Crores, expected returns from Hidden Gems is above 100% in period of 12 - 24 months. Once target is achieved, we inform our members whether they should continue to hold the stock or need to do partial / full profit booking. If fundamentals are intact and valuations are reasonable, we suggest to continue to hold the stock for long term for multibagger returns. Annual subscription charge of Hidden Gems is INR 10,000 9,000 under which you will receive total 12 Hidden Gems research reports (one on monthly basis). Click here to read more about Hidden Gems.

2. Value Picks (Mid Caps with Plenty of Upside Potential): Our equity analysts team consider Warren Buffet approach to short list stocks from mid cap segment as Value Picks. Market cap of Value Pick will range from 1000 crores to 10,000 crores. Holding period of Value Picks is 12 - 24 months and one can expect returns of 40-50%. Annual subscription charge of Value Picks is INR 6,000 5,400 under which you will receive total 12 Value Picks research reports (one on monthly basis). Click here to read more about Value Picks.

3. 15% @ 90 Days (Buy to Sell Stocks for Short Term Gain): Based on technical analysis, our team recommends one stock every month to our members. It’s a short term call under which you can expect returns of 15% within period of 90 Days. Annual subscription charge of 15% @ 90 Days is INR 4,000 under which you will receive 12 stock recommendations. We suggest lower allocation in 15% @ 90 Days stocks and higher allocation in Hidden Gems and Value Picks which are our portfolio stocks based on fundamental analysis.​ 15% @ 90 Days stocks recommendations are based on buy to sell and gain strategy, hence we suggest our members to book complete profits once target is achieved and exit in case target is not achieved or stock has broken its 2nd support level as per report. Click here to read more about 15% @ 90 Days.

4. Wealth-Builder (An Offline Portfolio Management Service): Wealth-Builder is our model portfolio of Rs. 10 lakhs and currently we are holding 16 stocks in our portfolio. We suggest higher allocation in our Wealth-Builder stocks which includes best of our Hidden Gems and Value Picks released during last couple of years. Our team suggest all our Wealth-Builder members to invest in the stocks which are part of our Wealth-Builder portfolio. Every month our team updates our Wealth-Builder members which stocks they need to buy / sell / hold with % allocation of these stocks in their portfolio, the suggested changes need to be replicated in the same proportion. Annual subscription charge of Wealth-Builder is INR 20,000 18,000 under which you will receive total 12-18 portfolio updates. We also review existing equity portfolio of our members and advise them which stocks to hold and which to exit based of fundamental analysis. Moreover, we do look at sector wise / stock wise allocation in the portfolio and advise in case of any corrective measure needs to be taken by increasing or decreasing the stock specific allocation. Our Wealth-Builder service is suitable for those investors who have an existing portfolio of at least 2 to 3 lakhs or planning to invest similar amount or more in equity market. Click here to read more about Wealth-Builder.

Do contact us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Are you Fearful of Market Crash? Its time to be Greedy!

Dear Reader,

Since Jan 2018, broader markets i.e. Small Cap and Mid Cap indices are in bear phase. Over last few weeks, we have seen small & mid cap stocks getting butchered with fall in stock prices on almost daily basis. At current scenario, when Small & Mid Cap Index is down by 31% and 21% respectively from their peak made in January last year and significantly underperformed Sensex & Nifty, no body want to touch this space. Most of the liquidity in small & mid caps has dried up and found its way to large caps over last 16 months. At this juncture, large caps looks fairly valued or expensive in terms of valuations, however small & mid cap companies look attractive and can reward long term investors in big way. In fact, some of the worst times to get into the market turned out to be the best times for long term investors and same seems to be applicable now for small & mid caps.

Its always wise to be greedy when others are fearful. Fall in stock prices of small and mid cap companies by 40% to 60% from their peaks use to happen during panic times, if a particular company delivers 3x to 5x or even 10x type of returns on your investments in period of 3 to 7 years, it can easily fall by 40% to 60% or even more from its 52 week high during tough times which arises due to profit / loss booking, series of negative events / news flows and severe sell off due to panic across markets. Below are some of the major reasons of severe fall in stocks prices of small & mid cap stocks since beginning of 2018:

i) Rejig in Portfolio by Mutual Funds to meet guidelines defined by SEBI
ii) Introduction of Additional Surveillance Measures by SEBI to curb volatility
iii) Auditors exit from various companies on fear of stringent action from authorities
iv) Unfavourable macros with increasing crude oil prices and depreciating rupee
v) Trade war fears between US and China, rising interest rates, continuous selling by FIIs
vi) Panic in market due to IL&FS default on debt repayments
vii) Concerns in market due to severe sell off in large caps stocks like Zee, Tata Motors
viii) India’s economy registering lowest growth of 5.8% in the Q4 FY19 in last 5 years
ix) Contagion risk arising due to recent default of Rs 1,000 crore by DHFL
x) Ongoing NBFC sector crisis due to credit squeeze, over-leveraging, excessive concentration and massive mismatch between assets and liabilities.

Small Cap Index has not delivered negative returns for 2 consecutive years in past 16 years

We believe this is a blessing in disguise because for the first time in many years, several small companies having robust business fundamentals are available at attractive valuations. Do you know in last 16 years, small cap index have not given negative returns for 2 consecutive years. In 2018, BSE Small Cap Index has given negative returns of -23.4% and since beginning of this year, index is down by another -5.7%. Below is the table which indicates Small Cap Index returns YoY since 1st April 2003 (the data is available from April 2003 onwards only in BSE).
Whenever, Small Cap Index delivered significantly high negative returns in a particular year during last 16 years, it has delivered double digit positive returns the very next year. While Nifty and Sensex which have given positive returns and are hovering near their life time high made recently, Small & Mid Cap Index have underperformed by wide margin and is down by 31% and 21respectively from their peak made in Jan 2018. The divergence between Sensex / Nifty and Small & Mid Cap Index will not last for long going forward considering valuations gap emerging between large caps in comparison to mid & small cap stocks.

Tide to turn favourable sooner than later for small cap stocks

If you analyse the bear phase of stock markets cycle since 1990, you will find that such bear phase has lasted for maximum period of 15 to 18 months. Small cap index which made high in Jan 2018 with end of its bull run has corrected by -31% from its peak of 20,184 in last 17 months. Taking clues from history, we believe we are close to end of bear cycle in broader market after which stock prices of small and mid-caps will start recovering by going up and further up.

Below is the monthly chart of BSE Small Cap Index since 2005. The chart illustrate that the last decade bull run which started in 2003 made a peak in Jan 2008 and later went into bear phase with continuous fall in stock prices of small caps for next 15 months, i.e. from Jan 2008 to March 2009 and later stock prices of small caps recovered and went through correction and consolidation phase. Similarly, bull run in small caps which started in 2014 made its peak in Jan 2018 and moved into bear territory later. This month i.e. Jun’19 is the 17th month of bear phase experienced by broader markets – small & mid caps. If history of small cap index repeats itself (have very high probability), we are near to end of bear phase after which stock prices of small caps will start moving northward.

With fear of losing capital and dampened sentiments towards broader markets, small cap stocks are falling like nine pins these days. We have observed a lot of hopelessness towards broader market as Investors who started investing in equities during 2017 and 2018 are not willing to invest in this space due to pain of high negative returns in their portfolio and negative sentiments towards broader markets.

Series of negative developments have made Investors taking back seat in terms of investing in broader markets. Yes Bank and DHFL are dumped by Investors due to NPAs and liquidity concerns, followed by severe correction in Essel group stocks like Zee, Dish TV etc due to high debt concerns. Moreover, continuous collapse of ADAG group companies stock prices with lenders started selling collateral shares of these companies spoiled market sentiments. Recent episode of crash in stock prices of Jet Airways, Indiabulls Housing Finance and Jain Irrigation have completely shaken up retail investors. Collapse in stock prices of such well known and bigger companies on daily basis have butchered investors faith and interest towards investing in small and mid cap companies.

Usually bottom is made during these panic times which we are witnessing currently with series of negative news flow. In fact, we believe bottom is already in place for broader market with lows of Feb'19 post Pulwama attack. Once broader market start factoring all these negatives, the focus will shift towards individual company's earnings growth and current valuations which will drive stock prices up in coming quarters.

Greed which was seen in broader market (small & mid caps) in the year 2016 and 2017 has turned to fear these days. Are you also fearful? This is the time to do opposite of the herd, its time to be greedy when others are fearful. If you are not investing in equities during these opportune times and taking the back seat, you are making a bigger mistake. Are you not following the herd mentality? If you have invested in markets during 2016 and 2017 when valuations of companies were significantly higher compared to today’s valuation, why you have stopped investing now?

Remember, in the long run, you do not make decent returns on your investments by following the herd i.e. when everyone is buying stocks; instead you get handsome returns on our investments by investing in stocks at significantly low prices as no one else is buying, and by selling to them when they come back in herd due to greed in future.

If you are not a long-term investor and thinking to make quick bucks by timing the market, it could be risky. Hence, we advise to invest only keeping a longer time horizon, minimum 2 to years or more. In fact, to make enormous wealth from equities, you should have horizon of 10 to 20 years so that you can experience 2 to 3 market cycles and reap maximum reward during bull phase of equity markets. We do not believe in timing the market and hence advise our members to follow a discipline approach, but it’s wise to turn aggressive in terms of equity investing during panic times which we are experiencing now.

“The first rule of investment is ‘buy low and sell high’, but many people fear to buy low because of the fear of the stock dropping even lower. Then you may ask: ‘When is the time to buy low?’ The answer is: When there is maximum pessimism.”
Sir John Templeton

Its important to be a disciplined investor who keep on investing in systematic way irrespective of market conditions and not an emotional investor who usually buy stocks during bull phase when stock prices are moving higher because of greed and sell them in panic during bear phase due to severe fall in stock prices, making mistake of buying high and selling low.

Download Potential Multibagger Stock 2019 Report for Free!

Monday, June 17, 2019

Strategy for Buying Multibagger Stocks

Simple & Effective Strategy for Buying Potential Multibagger Stocks

If we stick to basic rules of investing and put our money in fundamentally strong small and mid cap stocks, we will have multibaggers in our portfolio. We have a long list of super-duper multibaggers like Jubilant Foodworks, Page Industries, Aurobindo Pharma, Amara Raja Batteries, Natco Pharma, Cera Sanitaryware, Can Fin Homes, Camlin Fine Sciences, Mayur Uniquoter, Kovai Medical, TCPL Packaging, Roto Pumps etc.

It is obvious that this consistent success is not the result of chance or good luck. Instead, there is a carefully thought out strategy behind it. Below are some of the strategies which an investor needs to always follow for buying winning stocks which can deliver multibagger returns.

1. First identify the sectors doing well and then the best stocks in it:

There are two well-known strategies for buying stocks – the “top down” approach, in which you focus on the Industry / Sector (e.g. consumer non-discretionary), and the “bottom up” approach, in which you focus on individual stocks (e.g. Page Industries).

We follow a unique method that is a combination of both methods. We buy only the best stocks in the best performing sectors. Applying this method in past, we have avoided investing funds in dud sectors like realty and infra even though individual stocks looked very promising.

2. Buy stocks only if the requirements in the check-list are met:

We follows a rigorous process of checks and balances before we trust a stock offers right investment opportunity. These are:

(a) Know the management and its credentials / pedigree
(b) Understand the business model and growth prospects of the company
(c) The company must have positive cash flows
(d) The debt must be low or negligible
(e) The company must have pricing power and not be vulnerable to excessive competition.

3. Focus on information and not on hype:

In times of boom and bust investors tend to carried away by the noise around them. We advice investors to be rigidly focused on tangible information in the form of financial statements. “Never get carried away by the cacophony and hype on Dalal Street”. Its always wise that investors should “identify the nuts and bolts that drive the growth and profitability of the company”.

4. Recognize your mistakes and cut your losses:

This is very important, most investors suffer from “loss aversion” and like to be in denial that they have made a mistake. If they want to raise money, they will sub-consciously sell the stocks where they have a profit but not those where they have a loss.

Considering our own experience where we made mistake by recommending investments in stocks like Firstobject Technologies, Anil Ltd, and Fiberweb. Once we knew that we had committed a blunder, we dispassionately ask our members to cut their losses before they could do further damage to their portfolio.

We are sure that by following our “old-fashioned” style of picking stocks after doing thorough research should help all of us to grow our money by picking some of the potential multibagger stocks in making and become better investors.

Picking Multibagger Stocks for Investment

How to Pick Multibagger Stocks for Investments?

It is very important to evaluate company using vital parameters before finalizing it as an investment candidate. Many investors who are new to stock markets simply look at share price, its 52 week high & low and put their hard earned money in equities to work. And as we all know, most of the times this approach never works. Below are the 9 important parameters which are broadly used as tools for doing fundamental analysis of a company. Using these key parameters, Investors can pick winning multibagger stocks for their portfolio to get rewarded in long term.

1. Company’s History & Promoter's Credentials

This is one of the most important factor when one is looking to buy stock in an unknown company. It is best to look up the accounts for a couple of prior years and also read up the directors’ report. One should also do a Google search on the company and its promoters to see if they have ever been involved in shady or dubious deals.

2. Cash Flow

Cash flow is the amount of money coming in or going out of the business in a given period of time, say, one financial year. It helps to determine how much liquidity the company has. If a company is “cash flow positive”, it means that it is generating more cash from the business than it is paying out. This is a positive sign because it means the company has bargaining power. It is selling to its customers and receiving payment early while it is buying from the suppliers and paying them late.

If a company is “cash flow negative”, it is a dangerous sign because it means that the company has no liquidity and is desperately dependent on its suppliers and creditors. They can hold the company to ransom by choking its credit limits.

3. EBITDA 

EBITDA stands for “Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization”. EBITDA tells the investor, the profit that the company is making from its operations. If the EBITDA is negative, then it is a very negative sign because it means that the company is losing money in its core profitability.

The EBITDA margin is computed as a percentage of sales and EBITDA. For instance, in a company had sales of Rs. 100 and an EBITDA of Rs. 12, its EBITDA margin would be 12%. The higher the margin, the better it is.

Example: Hawkins Cookers’ EBITDA in the year ended 31.3.2019 was Rs. 90.33 crores. Its sales were Rs. 652.84 crores and so the EBITDA to Sales margin was 13.84%.

4. EPS (Earning Per Share)

EPS (Earning Per Share) = Net Profit / Number of Outstanding Shares

There are variants such as the “Diluted EPS” which means that even the shares that will be issued in the future pursuant to outstanding warrants or bonds are also considered.

Example: Hawkins Cookers’ net profit for the year ended 31.3.2019 was Rs. 54.22 crores. The number of equity shares were 52.88 lakhs and so the EPS for last financial year was Rs. 102.53.

“Cash EPS” is worked out by taking the operating cash profits (without reducing non-cash expenditure such as depreciation).

5. P/E Ratio

The Price-Earnings (PE) Ratio is a valuation ratio of the company’s current share price compared to its earnings per share (EPS). In other words, how of a multiple of the EPS is one paying to buy the stock.

This criteria helps to identify, how cheap or expensive a stock is compared to its peers. It is calculated with the formula: 

Market Value per Share / Earnings Per Share (EPS)

For example, if the stock is available at Rs. 20 each and the EPS is Rs.5, the PE ratio is 20/5 = 4.

The PE is usually calculated on the EPS of the previous 12 months (the “trailing twelve months” (TTM).

The PE ratio can be used to benchmark companies within the same Industry or sector. For example, if one is comparing two PSU banks, if one has a PE of 5 and the other has a PE of 8, the question is why one is paying a premium for the second one and whether there is a valuation aberration somewhere that an investor can take advantage of.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s EPS in the year ended 31.3.2019 was Rs. 102.53 (as calculated above). The market price per share as on 31st March 2019 was Rs. 3011 and so the PE ratio on 31st March was 29.7.

6. Return on Equity (ROE)

ROE or Return on Equity indicates how efficiently the management is able to get a return from the shareholders’ equity. ROE is calculated with the following formula:

Net Income / Shareholders’ Equity

Example: Suppose a company earned Rs. 1,000 in profit and the total equity capital is Rs. 2000. The ROE is 1000/2000 = 50%.

Suppose another company in the same sector/ industry earned a ROE of 30%. You know which company is a more efficient utilizer of capital.

A variation of the same concept is the Return on Net Worth of RONW in which we take in not only the equity capital but also the retained earnings (reserves).

7. Debt Equity Ratio

Debt Equity Ratio is the proportion of debt to equity used to run the company’s operations. It is calculated with the following formula:

Total liabilities / equity share capital + reserves

When examining the health of your business, it's critical to take a long, hard look at company's debt-to-equity ratio. If Debt Equity ratios are increasing, meaning there's more debt in relation to equity, Company is being financed by creditors rather than by internal positive cash flow, which may be a dangerous trend.

The debt/equity ratio also depends on the industry in which the company operates. For example, capital-intensive industries such as capital goods, auto manufacturing tend to have a debt/equity ratio above 2, while IT companies / Consumer Goods companies with high brand equity have a debt/equity of under 0.5.

8. Market Capitalisation

It is the value for the entire company can be bought on the stock market. It is derived by multiplying the total number of equity shares by the market price of each share.

This helps to determine whether the stock is undervalued or not. For instance, if a stock with a consistent profit of Rs. 100 is available at a market cap of Rs. 200 is undervalued in comparison to another stock with a similar profit but with a market cap of Rs. 500.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s has issued 52.88 lakh shares. The price per share as on 31st March 2019 was Rs. 3011 and so the market cap of the company on that date was Rs. 1592 crores. This means, theoretically, that if you had Rs. 1592 crores, you could buy all the shares of Hawkins Cooker.

9. Dividend Yield

‘Dividend Yield’ is a financial ratio that shows how much the company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price. It is calculated by the following formula:

Interim + Annual Dividends in the year/Price per share x 100

If you find that company is paying consistent dividend year after year with dividend yield of above 7%, you can think to invest in such stocks instead of blocking your money in fixed deposits. Here, you can think of some appreciation in stock price along with 7% returns on yearly basis through dividend payment. 

Example: Hawkins declared a dividend of 700% (Rs. 70 per share). Because its market price as on 31st March 2019 was Rs. 3011, the dividend yield on 31st March was 70/3011×100 = 2.32%.

Do you know, Hawkins has multiplied investment by almost 85 times in last 14 years. Rs 1 lakh invested in Hawkins on 1st Jan 2005 is worth Rs. 89 lacs as on 31st March 2019, that too excluding dividends received by Investors. Hawkins share price was Rs. 33.50 on 1st Jan 2005 and Hawkins share price on 31st March 2019 was Rs. 3011 giving astonishing returns of 8888% to investors with CAGR of nearly 40% in last 14 years. Moreover, dividend payout of Rs. 70 is more than double the stock price of Hawkins in Jan 2005.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

10 Basic Principles of Stock Market Investing!

10 Basic Principles Every Investor Should Know

Dear Reader,

In the stock market there is no rule without an exception, there are some principles that are tough to dispute. Here are 10 general principles to help investors get a better grasp of how to approach the market from a long-term view. Every point embodies some fundamental concept every investor should know while investing in equities.

1. Ride the winners not the losers

Time and time again, investors take profits by selling their appreciated investments, but they hold onto stocks that have declined in the hope of a rebound. If an investor doesn't know when it's time to let go of hopeless stocks, he or she can, in the worst-case scenario, see the stock sink to the point where it is almost worthless. Of course, the idea of holding onto high-quality investments while selling the poor ones is great in theory, but hard to put into practice. The following information might help:

Riding a Winner - The theory is that much of your overall success will be due to a small number of stocks in your portfolio that returned big. If you have a personal policy to sell after a stock has increased by a certain multiple - say three, for instance - you may never fully ride out a winner. No one in the history of investing with a "sell-after-I-have-tripled-my-money" mentality has ever had a tenbagger. Don't underestimate a stock that is performing well by sticking to some rigid personal rule - if you don't have a good understanding of the potential of your investments, your personal rules may end up being arbitrary and too limiting.

Selling a Loser - There is no guarantee that a stock will bounce back after a decline. While it's important not to underestimate good stocks, it's equally important to be realistic about investments that are performing badly. Recognizing your losers is hard because it's also an acknowledgment of your mistake. But it's important to be honest when you realize that a stock is not performing as well, as you expected it to. Don't be afraid to swallow your pride and move on before your losses become even greater.

In both cases, the point is to judge companies on their merits according to your research. In each situation, you still have to decide whether a price justifies future potential. Just remember not to let your fears limit your returns or inflate your losses.

2. Avoid chasing hot tips

Whether the tip comes from your brother, your cousin, your neighbour or even your broker, you shouldn't accept it as law. When you make an investment, it's important you know the reasons for doing so; get into the basics by doing research and analysis of any company before you even consider investing your hard-earned money. Relying on a tidbit of information from someone else is not only an attempt at taking the easy way out, it's also a type of gambling. Sure, with some luck, tips sometimes pan out but they will never make you an informed investor, which is what you need to be to be successful in the long run. Find out what you should pay attention to - and what you should ignore.

3. Don't sweat on the small stuff

As a long-term investor, you shouldn't panic when your investments experience short-term movements. When tracking the activities of your investments, you should look at the big picture. Remember to be confident in the quality of your investments rather than nervous about the inevitable volatility of the short term. Also, don't overemphasize the few bucks difference you might save from using a limit versus market order.

Active traders will use these day-to-day and even minute-to-minute fluctuations as a way to make gains. But the gains of a long-term investor come from a completely different market movement - the one that occurs over many years - so keep your focus on developing your overall investment philosophy by educating yourself.

4. Don't overemphasize the P/E ratio

Investors often place too much importance on the price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio). Because it is one key tool among many, using only this ratio to make buy or sell decisions is dangerous and ill-advised. The P/E ratio must be interpreted within a context, and it should be used in conjunction with other analytical processes. So, a low P/E ratio doesn't necessarily mean a security is undervalued, nor does a high P/E ratio necessarily mean a company is overvalued.  

5. Resist the lure of penny stocks

A common misconception is that there is less to lose in buying a low-priced stock. But whether you buy a Rs. 5 stock that plunges to Rs. 0 or a Rs. 75 stock that does the same, either way you've lost 100% of your initial investment. A lousy Rs. 5 company has just as much downside risk as a lousy Rs. 75 company. In fact, a penny stock is probably riskier than a company with a higher share price, which would have more regulations placed on it.

6. Pick a strategy and stick with it

Different people use different methods to pick stocks and fulfill investing goals. There are many ways to be successful and no one strategy is inherently better than any other. However, once you find your style, stick with it. An investor who flounders between different stock-picking strategies will probably experience the worst, rather than the best, of each. Constantly switching strategies effectively makes you a market timer, and this is definitely most investors should avoid. Take Warren Buffett's actions during the dotcom boom of the late '90s as an example. Buffett's value-oriented strategy had worked for him for decades, and - despite criticism from the media - it prevented him from getting sucked into tech startups that had no earnings and eventually crashed.

7. Focus on the future

The tough part about investing is that we are trying to make informed decisions based on things that have yet to happen. It's important to keep in mind that even though we use past data as an indication of things to come, it's what happens in the future that matters most.

A quote from Peter Lynch's book "One Up on Wall Street" (1990) about his experience with one of the stock he bought demonstrates this: "If I'd bothered to ask myself, 'How can this stock go any higher?' I would have never bought it as stock price already went up twenty fold. But I checked the fundamentals, realized that company was still cheap, bought the stock, and made seven fold after that." The point is to base a decision on future potential rather than on what has already happened in the past.

8. Adopt a long-term perspective.

Large short-term profits can often entice those who are new to the market. But adopting a long-term horizon and dismissing the "get in, get out and make a killing" mentality is a must for any investor. This doesn't mean that it's impossible to make money by actively trading in the short term. But, as we already mentioned, investing and trading are very different ways of making gains from the market. Trading involves very different risks that buy-and-hold investors don't experience. As such, active trading requires certain specialized skills.

Neither investing style is necessarily better than the other - both have their pros and cons. But active trading can be wrong for someone without the appropriate time, financial resources, education and desire.

9. Be open-minded

Many great companies are household names, but many good investments are not household names. Thousands of smaller companies have the potential to turn into the large blue chips of tomorrow. In fact, historically, small-caps have had greater returns than large-caps; over the decades.

This is not to suggest that you should devote your entire portfolio to small-cap stocks. Rather, understand that there are many great companies beyond those in the Small Cap Index, and that by neglecting all these lesser-known companies, you could also be neglecting some of the biggest gains. We have already experienced the multibagger returns from lesser known companies recommended under Hidden Gems service in past, our stock picks like Camlin Fine Sciences, TCPL Packaging, Kovai Medical, Wim Plast, Acrysil, Mayur Uniquoters, Balaji Amines, Rane Brake Linings etc have delivered returns in the range of 500% to 1800% over period of 2 to 5 years.

10. Don't miss to diversify your equity portfolio

Its always wise to have stocks from different sectors and Industries. Do not expose your self to many stocks from the same sector. Be it IT, Consumers, Finance, Infrastructure, Pharmaceutical or any other sector, you must have a proper mix of all with suitable allocation based on future outlook of that sector and industry. Most of the companies from capital goods and Infrastructure sector have not performed since last 6 to 7 years but private banking stocks, NBFCs, consumers and automobile companies stocks are making new all time highs. Hence, its important to stay diversified with your stock investments.

Wish you happy & safe Investing!

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Wealth Creators - Stock Picking & Not Timing Create Wealth

Dear Reader,

Are you looking for a long-term winner — a multibagger? It's simple! Buy shares of a company with strong fundamentals and consistently high financial performance.

To evaluate a company’s efficiency and the quality of its management, the two key financial ratios to be keenly observed are return on net worth (RoNW) and return on capital employed (RoCE). Besides, price-to-earnings ratio could be used to determine the market price of a company’s stock and to compare it with peers’ in the same sector. Price to book value measures the value of shareholder's ownership in the company. 

While earnings yield — the quotient of earnings per share divided by the share price — needs to be seen to compare directly against the returns offered by alternative investments such as interest on a bond or savings account, debt-to-equity ratio could measure a company’s financial leverage. A high debt-to-equity ratio generally means that a company has been aggressive in financing its growth with debt. This could result in volatile earnings because of additional interest expenses. 

TTK Prestige, a leader in the Indian kitchenware market, is one of the stock in the list of multibaggers, with compound annual returns of 59.6 per cent in 11 years. In other words, Rs 1,000 invested in 2005 is valued at more than Rs 1 lakh today. A 100-Bagger stock in 11 years. This is just one of the example, there are companies which have given much better returns than TTK Prestige during the same period. Do you know, Symphony has given compounded annual returns of astonishing 102% in last 11 years. Investment of Rs. 1000 in Symphony in Jan 2005 is valued more than Rs. 22 lakhs today. Mind boggling, isn't it? It's a 2200-Bagger stock in last 11 years. These companies have turnaround their performance and hugely benefited from market growth driven by rising consumer spend, offering value added products with strong moat, evolving lifestyle preferences and broad demographic trends.

TTK’s product range and distribution have complemented the strong brand, helping it clock a revenue CAGR of 22.6 per cent in 11 years. The profit has grown at an even higher CAGR of 32.5 per cent, backed by its premium products and a debt-free status, from a debt-to-equity ratio of two in 2004. The efficiency and the quality of its management measured from consistently high RoNW and RoCE helped it become the most valuable company in the past decade. 

Titan Industries, has made its investors 37 times richer in last 10 years, with its profit growing at 27.1 per cent CAGR. However, the top-class performance in the decade may cool a little in the coming years, as demand is expected to slow down, given the tough environment. Among other most valuable mid and large cap companies of the decade are Godrej Consumer, GMDC, SKF India, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank.

Stock market investment runs in sector-specific cycles. The stocks in a particular sector get bigger and give better returns as that sector gets popular. For example, between 2002 and 2007, realty, metals and capital goods companies topped the gainers’ list. The demand for housing and strong investment in capital goods and infrastructure projects saw Unitech, JSW Steel, Pantaloon Retail, Sesa Goa, Alstom T&D, Jubilant Life, Crompton Greaves, Siemens and Thermax emerge as top companies on the multibagger list.

If we look into top 200 stocks by market capitalisation with trading history of more than 10 years, we find there are 158 stocks that have outperformed the benchmark index with 10-year CAGR of more than 17.4 per cent each. Of these, as many as 99 stocks have been multibaggers — giving their stakeholders gains of over 10 times on investment made 10 years earlier, or annual average returns between 26.6 and 71 per cent. Of these, 59 have been long-term winners — the companies that have given very good high returns in 10 years as well as during the economic slowdown seen in last couple of years.

Among these 59 stocks, 10 have been consistent performers, that is, 20 per cent CAGR in sales and profit over the past decade as well as in last two consecutive years. These companies have recorded very high financial ratios, both RoNW and RoCE, and given strong earnings yield — significantly higher than the other prevailing investment avenues.

The consistent performers are from the sectors like auto ancillaries, banks, consumer durables, pharmaceuticals, housing finance, fertilisers, FMCG and mining. The drop down list of 59 companies, too, has similar sectoral compositions, with additions from automobiles and capital goods.

This clearly shows the merit in backing fundamentals over trying to time the market. Fundamentals are the most important; one has to analyse management credibility and capability, quality of the product, financial health and competitors’ position and then decide on whether to buy a stock. At the same time, when markets are not doing well, choice of high dividend paying companies and those with healthy cash balance helps. Hence, there is an element of market environment which needs to be considered. 


Not everyone has the time and inclination to analyse stocks and be able to identify potential wealth creators. If that’s the case for you as well, don’t fret. Either identify above average funds or choose services of independent equity research firm and invest in good quality stocks yourself, that outperform the benchmark consistently over a period of 5-10 years and put your money at work. The strategy remains the same — identifying wealth creators and investing in them for long term. 
Saral Gyan Wealth Creators (Since our Inception Year - 2010)
Saral Gyan was founded in the year 2010 with a vision to create wealth by investing in equities, our research team includes working professionals from different streams which are contributing to our success. Its dedication and passion of our team towards equities that make Saral Gyan one of the best independent equity research firm in identifying Hidden Gems (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks) and Value Picks (Mid Caps with Plenty of Upside Potential) from small and mid cap space.
Below are some of the stocks which have given excellent returns to our members in the range of 200% to 1800% over a period of last 2 - 6 years.

1. Camlin Fine Sciences Ltd: Camlin Fine Sciences Ltd is one of the India's leading manufacturers and exporters of Bulk Drugs, Fine Chemicals and Food Grade products. The company manufactures active pharmaceutical ingredients (API's), food antioxidants and sweeteners. Company acquired subsidiary of Borregaard in March 2011 which was expected to help Camlin Fine Sciences in realizing better operating and profit margins in coming quarters. This acquisition ensured the easy availability of raw material Hydroquinone manufactured by Borregaard for Camlin Fine Sciences ltd. Company also introduced new products and continuously strengthening its marketing activities throughout Europe and USA. The scrip was trading at 4X FY 2011-12 estimated earnings leaving good scope for stock price appreciation.

Investment Returns: We recommended Camlin Fine Sciences on 27th Mar'11 at Rs 6 (2 stock split adjusted price, actual recommended price was Rs. 60), stock price touched its all time high of Rs. 129 in 2015 and yesterday closed at Rs. 78.85 giving as on date returns of 1214% to our members. It's a 13-Bagger stock as on date in 6 years, we recommended partial profit booking to our members by selling 50% of their holdings and keeping remaining quantity in their portfolio for long term.

2. Cera Sanitaryware: Our equity analysts team identified Cera Sanitaryware in Dec 2011 and recommended our Hidden Gems members to invest in it at a price of Rs. 157. What made us to believe in Cera Sanitaryware as an investment opportunity was its superior products and potential to drive growth by expanding its reach to various geography of the country. Another important factor which impressed our team is significant increase in its market share by growing faster compared to well established competitors like HSIL in the same segment. 

Investment Returns: Stock of Cera Sanitaryware has made all time high of Rs. 3315 recently and closed at Rs. 2775 yesterday giving absolute returns of 1668% to our members since Dec 2011. As on date, Cera is almost a 18-Bagger stock and no profit booking suggested by our team and we suggest our member to continue to hold this stock for long term. Moreover, we reiterated buy on Cera at price range of 400-450 and added it in our Wealth-Builder portfolio 4 years back.

3. Mayur Uniquoters: We recommended investment in Mayur Uniquoters at price of Rs. 56 (2 bonus issues and stock split adjusted price) in March 2012. Company is a market leader in the industry it operates, artificial leather industry offers great growth potential considering huge untapped market and its well accepted replacement products to original leather products. Company was in expansion spree with continuous rise in demand for its products and was distributing healthy interim dividends. Needless to say, nobody wants to kill animals to use their leather products. With continuous research and development, company offers more than 300 variety of artificial leather to its esteem clients like Ford, Chrysler, Hyundai, Nissan, Tata Motors, Maruti, Mahindra, Bata, Relaxo and many more.

Investment Returns: Mayur Uniquoter stock price has made all time high of Rs. 515 in April 2015 and yesterday closed at Rs. 340.15, giving as on date returns of 507% to our members since March 2012, recommended at price of Rs. 56 (2 bonus issues and 1 stock split adjusted price), As on date, Mayur Uniquoter is a 6-Bagger stock for our members. No profit booking suggested by our team yet and we suggest our members to continue to hold this stock.

4. Aurobindo Pharma: Aurobindo Pharma Ltd is one of the largest generic suppliers under ARV contracts, with a 35% market share. The company enjoys high market share as it is fully integrated in all its products apart from having a larger product basket. Among peers, it was trading at a 22% discount to Ipca Laboratories and a 17% discount to Torrent Pharmaceuticals, though it had a stronger product pipeline.Aurobindo Pharma Ltd was also aiming to maintain 25 ANDA filings per year, which should see the product pipeline strengthening further. Its focus on margin would also help it strengthen the bottom line. Moreover, the USFDA clearance would be an immediate booster for the company. Considering all these factors, we recommended Aurobindo Pharma as there was good scope for re-rating of the stock looking at valuations among peer group companies and growth prospects. 

Investment Returns: Aurobindo Pharma was recommended in Jan'2013 at price of 93.5 (bonus issue adjusted price) for target of Rs 137 which was achieved within 12 months and we informed our members to continue holding Aurobindo for long term. We suggested complete profit booking in the stock last year to our Wealth-Builder members around 750 levels, stock has delivered returns of 700% within 4 years.

5. Kewal Kiran Clothing Ltd (KKCL): A company with experience of building strong brands since last 2 decades. As we know, strong brands offers huge competitive moat which yields to better operating and profit margins and help companies to own pricing power for their products. Our analysts missed Page Industries (owns right for selling Jockey in India and other Asian countries) and was looking for similar opportunity with justified valuations. KKCL owns brands like Killer and Lawman and is the only company from apparel industry which stands out in tough scenario with consistent profit when other companies like Provogue, V2 Retail were struggling due to high debt on books.

Investment Returns: KKCL was recommended during Diwali in 2012 at price of 729 for target of Rs 990 and later again reiterated buy at Rs. 1050 for long term. Stock price touched its all time high of Rs. 2380 in 2015 and yesterday closed at Rs. 1660 giving as on date returns of 128% to our members in period of 5 years. Fundamentals are intact, valuations are reasonable and company has strong brand building expertise in apparel industry, hence we suggested our members to stay invested in this stock for better returns in future.

6. TCPL Packaging: TCPL Packaging Ltd., (formerly known as Twenty-First Century Printers Ltd) began commercial production in April 1990. It is one of India's largest manufacturers of printed folding cartons, and one of the few listed packaging companies in India. TCPL Packaging signed a technical collaboration agreement with AR Packaging Group AB, Lund Sweden in Nov 2012. The objective of the agreement was a strategically partnership mainly in the manufacturing, sourcing and sales and marketing in India for solid folding cartons which was expected to augur well for the company. Moreover, TCPL's corrugated cartons plant at Haridwar commenced production from March 2012 to offer innovative packaging solution.

Investment Returns: TCPL Packaging was recommended in Jan 2013 at average price of 70.50 for target of Rs 160. We suggested to hold the stock once target was achieved considering improved fundamentals and reasonable valuations. TCPL stock price made all time high of Rs. 780 in the month of June last year and yesterday closed at Rs. 614.80 giving returns of 772% to our members, almost our 9-Bagger stock in period of 4.5 years.

There are many other stocks which have given returns in the range of 200% to 1500% during last 6 years to our Hidden Gems and Value Picks members, the list includes Sri Adhikari Brothers, Wim Plast, De Nora, Super House, Indag Rubber, WPIL, Acrysil, Kovai Medical, Atul Auto, ABM Knowledgeware, Premier Explosives, Balaji Amines, Rane Brakes, Chemfab Alkalies, Amara Raja, Godrej Consumers, Force Motors, Roto Pumps, Visaka Industries etc. If you wish to invest in fundamentally strong small and mid cap companies which can give you far superior returns compared to major indices like Sensex or Nifty in long term and help you creating wealth, you can join our services like Hidden GemsValue Picks & Wealth-Builder.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that are either under-researched or not covered by other stock brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our subscribers on our past recommendation suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

Time has shown that smart investors have made their fortune by investing in equities in long term. None other asset class can match giving you such extra ordinary returns. Yes, its important for your to invest in right set of companies at right price with medium to long term perspective. If you think to invest in stocks for period of 3 months to 6 months, we suggest you to stay out of stock market because you are not investing, you are betting on volatility of stock market which could be risky.

At Saral Gyan, team of equity analysts keep on evaluating small and mid cap stocks to explore the best Hidden Gems and Value Picks of stock market. Saral Gyan - Hidden Gems and Value Picks are the small and mid cap stocks with high probability to become multi-bagger stocks in future and a path for our investors to create wealth through equity investments in a long run.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan