Value investing has never been a "hot" strategy for investing in stocks. In fact, no long-term strategy ever generates much buzz. This is partly because we live in a "quick-buck" culture that values immediate gratification more than a thoughtful approach to investing in stocks.

However, most investors are better off taking the long-term approach than trying to out trade the professionals.

There is always a loud chorus that proclaims buy and hold investing in stocks dead and a fool's game. No doubt if investors have the education, time and energy to devote to investing in stocks, a variation of buy and hold may produce better results.

That's just not the real world. Most of us have many other commitments on our time than we have time for already. Besides, some of the biggest fortunes on Dalal Street have been made with a long-term perspective and many of these fortunes were made with value investing as a core strategy.

What factors should you consider when evaluating a value stock? Before we answer that question, maybe we should briefly define value investing.

Value investing is finding a stock that is selling at a discount to its intrinsic value or companies that the market has undervalued for some reason unrelated to its economic fundamentals.

Benjamin Graham pioneered the value-investing concept and recognized the biggest flaw in the strategy: deciding what a company's intrinsic value is.

Margin of Safety

For this reason he always counseled for a margin of safety that provided room should your calculation of the intrinsic value be off.

This is important because the key to successful value investing is buying at the correct price. Graham's strategy called for a strict discipline on price, which included his margin of safety.

If he could not buy the stock at that price, he would pass.

Many modern stock pickers scoff at the rigidity of his system, yet Graham and his pupils, such as Warren Buffett, have made fortunes sticking to the strategy.

Financial Statistics

Here are some of the financial statistics value investors study, historical and forward:

• Price to book ratios

• Price to sales ratios

• Price to earnings ratios

• Price to cash flow ratios

The value investor will look for these ratios to be below the major indices benchmarks for a company's industry group.

However, let's be clear. Value investors are not looking for companies on the way to bankruptcy. They are looking for companies that have been beaten up by the market for no real fault of their own.

One of the ways you can make sure the company is on solid footing is to look at its financials.

Debt Ratios

Look in particular at its debt ratios (debt levels should be low) and look for good cash flow. A company with manageable debt and good cash flow is worth getting to know better, regardless of how the market is treating the stock.

How does a good company become a value stock? Several things can happen.

The company may not have a glamorous product. Some products just don't get much attention, but still must be produced, for example, those orange barrels you see on highway construction sites.

The growth prospects for the stock may not be high relative to other opportunities in the market. During the dot.com stock frenzy of the late 1990s, almost any stock that wasn't high tech became a value stock in comparison.

If a stock is selling at below Rs. 15 - 20, some investors think there must be something wrong with the company. This is an irrational response, but it happens.

Conclusion

Successful value investing depends on identifying a stock that is trading under the intrinsic value of the company and buying with a margin of safety in case you have misjudged the intrinsic value.

A question that every investor must ask is when should I buy a particular stock?

The answer will vary somewhat depending on whether you are investing in a growth stock or a value stock.

Growth investors expect the company to continue a steep rate of earnings (or in some cases, revenue) growth in the near future. They buy with a certainty that, if growth continues as anticipated, the price of the stock will rise also.

Value investors look for stock trading at a price lower than it is inherently worth. They are willing to hold the stock for an extended period and reap a large profit when the market discovers this hidden gem and bids the stock price up.

Price/Earnings Ratio

Investors often turn for part of their decision-making to a close look at the stock’s price/earnings ratio or P/E.

The P/E is a measure of how much investors are willing to pay for the company’s earnings. You calculate the P/E by dividing the current stock price by its earnings per share.

It is important to note that using the P/E by itself doesn’t give you a complete (or in some cases accurate) picture of the stock’s value.

Several factors can change the P/E. First, earnings per share may not show a true picture of the company’s earnings thanks to monkeying around with the numbers.

How P/E Is Calculated

Second, P/E can be calculated using the previous four quarters of earnings or it may use projections for the next four quarters. The difference can be dramatic.

You also must remember that various economic and market factors can raise or lower the price of the stock.

Given all that, the P/E is still helpful as part of the process of deciding whether to buy a stock.

A stock’s P/E tells you what other investors are willing to spend for the company’s earnings. For example, a P/E of 15 says investors are willing to spend Rs. 15 for every Rs.1 of earnings.

A high P/E says that investors expect the stock to be a strong performer and are willing to pay a premium. A low P/E says the market has less confidence in the company’s long-term potential.

A low P/E may indicate investors sense trouble ahead for the company. It also may indicate that other investors have overlooked this stock and are not placing the correct value on it.

The Right P/E

But, what is high and what is low for a P/E?

The P/E becomes more meaningful when it is compared to a benchmark. In most cases, you will want to see how other companies in the same industry rank.

If other companies in the same industry, are reporting P/Es in the low 20s, but the company you are considering has a P/E of 10, you need to find out why.

This may be a buying opportunity if you don’t uncover problems.

A stock with a P/E higher than its peers may be overpriced.

So, the answer to the question of when to buy a stock (in particular, a value stock) is when the P/E is lower than its peers and you can find no significant problems with the company.

Most of us have relatives who like to fashion themselves as ‘stock-gurus’, with their stories revolving around how they ‘could have been’ millionaires now, if only they had held their nerves. The stock that comes up frequently in these conversations is Infosys. If you had invested Rs. 9,500 to buy 100 shares of Infosys in the IPO (that went undersubscribed in 1993), 51,200 shares (adjusted for bonus issues) worth sum of Rs. 4,89,70,240 would be in your kitty.

Infy has given CAGR returns of whopping 42.6% to investors during last 24 years (that too after keeping dividend payouts aside). Infosys got listed in June 1993 at price of Rs. 145 per share and investment of Rs. 9,500 in June 1993 is valued at 4.9 crores today. But, is Infosys still the key to riches? As often repeated, past performance is no guarantee of future results. So, how does one find out the next ‘Infy’?

A Fast Grower is a small yet aggressive & nimble firm, which grows roughly at 20-25% a year. This is an investment category which can give investors a return of 10 to as much as 200 times the investment made by them. No doubt, it remains a favourite of Peter Lynch!

In 1950s, the Utility & Power Sector were the fast growers with twice the growth rates to that of the US GDP. As people got more power-hungry gadgets for themselves, the power bills ran through the roof & the power sector surged with booming demand. Post the Oil Shock in 70’s, cost of power generation became high with power tariffs going up; people learnt to conserve electricity. Demand, thus, fell and power sector witnessed a slowdown. Prior to it, similar decline was observed in the Steel Sector & Railroads. First, it was the Automobile Sector, and then the Steel, followed by Chemicals & Power Utility & now the IT Sector is showing signs of slowing down. Every time, people thought, rally in the fast growers of the age would never end, but it did end, with people losing money as well as their jobs. Those who thought differently like Walter Chrysler (founder of Chrysler Corporation), who took a pay cut and left the railroads to build new cars in the turn of the last century, became the next millionaires.

Three phases involved in their life cycles, are:

1. The Start-Up Phase: Majority of the companies either burn up all the cash or run out of ideas by the end of this phase. Maximum casualties have been observed here, making it one of the riskiest phases. However, maximum returns can be made from them, if one enters near the end of this phase.

2. Rapid Expansion Phase: The Company’s core proposition has worked now, with the strategy being replicated by expansion of product/service portfolio or consumer touch points.

3. Mature Phase: Growth slows down, either due to high debt or low cash, owing to the massive expansion witnessed in early stage. Fall in demand or legal restrictions might also contribute to faltering growth.

The trick is to track, which phase the organization is in, at the moment. If the firm is in late start-up phase with possibility of moving to rapid expansion phase, buy the stock when it is still cheap. Once firm’s earnings start falling with its products witnessing poor demand, it’s time to bid goodbye to the stock.

The key parameters involved in Peter Lynch’s ‘two minute drill’ are:

1. P/E Ratio: avoid stocks with excessively high P/E

2. Debt/Equity Ratio: should be low

3. Net Cash per Share: should be high

4. Dividend & Payout Ratio: should be adequate

5. Inventory levels: lower the better

Stay away from companies which are being actively tracked, followed & invested in by large institutional investors. News about buy back of shares or internal stakeholders increasing their stakes should be construed as positive.

Checks specific to Fast Growers:

1. The star product forms a majority of the company’s business.

2. Company’s success in more than one places to prove that expansion will work.

3. Still opportunity for penetration.

4. Stock is selling at its P/E ratio or near the growth rate.

5. Expansion is speeding up Or stable

One must judiciously walk the tightrope between the unquestioning belief that made the stock to be held for so long and the fear of the end from nose-diving prices due to a one-off bad year. The key is to always keep revisiting the story & ask some pertinent questions like ‘What would really keep them growing?’, ‘What is their next offering? or ‘Are their products & services still in vogue?’ It is here, that one must track the point of time when the phase 2 of the firm’s expansion comes to an end. This is usually the dead-end for organizations as success is difficult to be replicated. Unless, innovation happens, downfall is imminent & thus, an exit is necessary. P/E of these stocks is drummed up to unrealistically high levels by the madness of crowd towards the end. One must keep one’s eyes & ears open to signs, which mark the end of the road for these fast growers. A great case in point is Polaroid which had its P/E bid up to 50, only to be rendered obsolete later by new technologies.

A sure shot sign of a decline is a company which is everywhere! Such a company would simply find no place to expand any further. Sooner, rather than later, such a company would see its ‘Manhattans’ of earnings reduced to ‘plateaus’ of little or no growth, simply because no space is left to expand further.

1.The quarterly sales decline for existing stores.

2. New stores opening, though results are disappointing: weakening demand, over supply.

3. High level of attrition at the top level.

4. Company pitching heavily to institutional investors talking about what Peter Lynch calls ‘diversification’.

5. Stock trading at a P/E of 30 or more, when most optimistic estimates of earning growth are lower than 15-20%, thus, unable to justify the high price.

Fast Growers, which pay, are ephemeral & one misses them more often than not. It is a High Risk & High Gain Category of Stocks. One must remember along the classic risk & return principle, that when one loses, one loses big! So, if you are in the quest for magnificent returns, a Fast Grower can be your bet provided you know when to bid Goodbye!

Cash Cow

However, the useful life of power plants spans many years and when the debt on the plant is repaid the facility can become a real cash cow for the utility.

For other industries, a large debt load may signal something seriously wrong. Of course, any company might pickup a big note if it just bought a building or a competitor.

There are several tools you can use to determine whether a company is exposing itself to too much debt.

The first is the Debt to Equity Ratio. This ratio tells you what portion of debt and equity is used to finance a company’s assets.

Formula

The formula is: Total Liabilities / Shareholder Equity = Debt to Equity Ratio.

A ratio of 1 or more indicates the company is using more debt than equity to finance assets. A high number (when compared to peers in the same industry) may mean the company is at risk in a market where interest rates are on the rise.

If a company has debt, it has interest expenses. There is a metric called Interest Coverage that will give you a good idea if a company is having trouble paying the interest charges on its debt.

The formula is: EBITDA / Interest Expense = Interest Coverage.

EBITDA is Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization and measures the operating performance of a company before accounting conventions and non-operational charges (such as taxes and interest).

Ratio

The resulting ratio tells you whether a company is having trouble producing enough cash to meet its interest expense. A ratio of 1.5 or higher is where companies want to be. A lower ratio may indicate that the company has trouble covering interest expenses as well as other costs.

Debt is not a bad thing when used responsibly. It can help businesses grow and expand. However, misuse of debt can result in a burden that drags down a company’s earnings. 

We learnt from the great crisis of 2011 that companies with high debt on their books simply get slaughtered. While debt per se is not bad (if the company is able to borrow at a lower rate and deploy it in its business at a higher rate, the operating leverage works in its favour), excessive debt with high interest and repayment obligations can crunch the stock in times of downturn. So, as a long-term investment philosophy, it is best to steer clear of high-debt companies. 

Avoid Investing in Companies with High Capex Requirement 

We know the demerits of investing in stocks like Suzlon & GMR which have an insatiable appetite for more and more capital. To feed their perennial hunger, these companies dilute their equity by making FPOs, GDRs & FCCBs resulting in total destruction of shareholders wealth. Companies should be lean and mean requiring minimal capital but generating huge returns there from. 

Dear Reader,

A small investment of Rs. 10,000 a month over a period of 10 years can help you create a corpus of Rs. 25 lakhs. Total amount invested over period of 10 years by you will be Rs. 12 lakhs and you will have profit of Rs. 13 lakhs. Not Good? This might look less to you as we are assuming returns of 13.5% per annum. If we assume returns of 27% per annum, your corpus will be Rs. 50 lakh and your profits would be more than 3 times of your actual investments that too when you are investing a nominal amount of Rs. 10,000 on monthly basis. Impressive! Right?

You might think that investing in mutual funds could be one of the way to start SIP (Systematic Investment Plan). However, returns may not be that high which you can generate by directly investing into good quality small and mid cap stocks. Hence, we suggest our members to start SIP by directly investing in stocks every month. What you are suppose to do is to invest your savings in a particular stock once in a month instead of putting it into mutual fund. Next month, same amount would be invested in another stock which at that point of time gives you good medium to long term investment opportunity. This could be an ideal choice for salaried employees as well as businessmen / entrepreneurs, as it will help you to directly invest in fundamentally strong small and mid cap companies to build a diversified portfolio of high quality small and mid cap stocks over a period of time to achieve wealth creation.

Investing in stocks is a great way to build your diversified investment portfolio. It is a simple and time tested approach for accumulation of wealth in a disciplined manner. Simply get some savings from your monthly income and invest in equities for long term. It not only allows you to save every month in a disciplined way but also help you ride through ups and downs of stock market.

Invest some portion of your monthly income in good companies without  timing the stock market and you will definitely get rewarded in long run.

Just take care of Basic Principle of Investing in Equities:

1. Invest in stock market with a long term view (3 - 7 years or more).

2. Invest in companies which are fundamentally strong with scalable business.

3. Follow disciplined approach by Investing regularly in equities.

4. Build a diversified portfolio by investing in small & mid cap companies.

5. Avoid frequent buying / selling of stocks, Its trading not Investing!

6. Review performance of your holding companies at least once a year to decide whether to buy / sell or hold.

Hidden Gems - SIP Returns @ 256.2% Vs Small Cap Index Returns @ 73.2%

It gives us immense pleasure to share that average returns of Saral Gyan 64 Hidden Gems stocks (Our Unexplored Multibagger Small Caps) released since inception (from Sept 2010 to Dec 2016) during last 6 years is 256.2% compared to 73.2% returns of BSE Small Cap Index. Monthly investment of Rs. 10,000 in Hidden Gems till Dec'16 during last 6 years not only allowed you to save Rs. 6.4 lakh but also appreciated your investment by more than 2 times making your total Hidden Gems stocks portfolio of Rs. 22.8 lakh with overall profit of Rs. 16.4 lakh. However, if you would have invested the same amount in Small Cap index, you would be sitting with overall gains of Rs. 4.68 lakh.

Below is our Multibagger Stocks - Hidden Gems performance scorecard since inception  (from Sept 2010 to Dec 2016) which illustrates value of Rs. 10,000 invested every month in Hidden Gem (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks) stock of the month vis a vis value of Rs. 10,000 invested in BSE Small Cap Index during last 6 years as on 26th May'17.
We are glad to inform you that 42 Hidden Gems stocks out of 64 during last 6 years have given more than 100% returns to our members. Moreover, 32 stocks out of these 42 have given returns in the range of 200% to 1800%.

Note: Total 64 Hidden Gems stocks were released (till Dec'16) during last 76 months, we have not released Hidden Gems for the months not displayed in the table above.  

We also suggested our members, which earlier recommended Hidden Gems stocks can be added more in their portfolio based on company's strong fundamentals. Ex: Mayur Uniquoter, Cera Sanitaryware, Wim Plast, Camlin Fine Chemicals, Acrysil, Kovai Medical, Superhouse, De Nora, Atul Auto, Control Print and Stylam Industries were some of the stocks which we recommended to our members to accumulate later also at higher price from our initial recommended price. Now profits can be seen as these stocks have given multibagger returns.

As we made most of these reports public, you can access read / download our research reports by clicking on the Read / Download link:

1. SAB TV NETWORK >>> Rec. Date: 05 Sep'10 >>> ROI: 890% >>> Read / Download

2. DE NORA >>> Rec. Date: 07 Nov'10 >>> ROI: 225% >>> Read / Download

3. CAMLIN FINE >>> Rec. Date: 27 Mar'11 >>> ROI: 1243% >>> Read / Download
4. WIM PLAST >>> Rec. Date: 30 Aug'11 >>> ROI: 1522% >>> Read / Download
6. CERA SANITARY >>> Rec. Date: 24 Dec'11 >>> ROI: 1760% >>> Read / Download
7. SUPERHOUSE >>> Rec. Date: 29 Feb'12 >>> ROI: 212% >>> Read / Download
8. MAYUR UNIQ. >>> Rec. Date: 31 Mar'12 >>> ROI: 560% >>> Read / Download

9. PREMIER EXPLO. >>> Rec. Date: 22 Jul'12 >>> ROI: 490% >>> Read / Download
10. ROTO PUMPS >>> Rec. Date: 05 Aug'12 >>> ROI: 420% >>> Read / Download
12. ACRYSIL >>> Rec. Date: 25 Nov'12 >>> ROI: 352% >>> Read / Download

13. BAMBINO AGRO >>> Rec. Date: 25 Dec'12 >>> ROI: 363% >>> Read / Download

14. TCPL PACKAGING >>> Rec. Date: 31 Jan'13 >>> ROI: 755% >>> Read / Download

15. ATUL AUTO >>> Rec. Date: 28 Feb'14 >>> ROI: 197% >>> Read / Download

16. RANE BRAKE >>> Rec. Date: 31 May'14 >>> ROI: 440% >>> Read / Download

17. DYNEMIC PROD. >>> Rec. Date: 29 Jul'14 >>> ROI: 214% >>> Read / Download

18. ASIAN GRANITO >>> Rec. Date: 29 Sep'14 >>> ROI: 261% >>> Read / Download

19. CONTROL PRINT >>> Rec. Date: 30 Nov'14 >>> ROI: 58% >>> Read / Download

20. PLASTIBLENDS >>> Rec. Date: 31 Jan'15 >>> ROI: 110% >>> Read / Download

21. MOLD-TEK PACK >>> Rec. Date: 22 Mar'15 >>> ROI: 171% >>> Read / Download
22. VISAKA IND >>> Rec. Date: 05 Jul'15 >>> ROI: 179% >>> Read / Download

23. CHEMFAB ALKAL. >>> Rec. Date: 06 Sep'15 >>> ROI: 178% >>> Read / Download

24. ULTRAMARINE >>> Rec. Date: 11 Oct'15 >>> ROI: 115% >>> Read / Download

25. STYLAM IND. >>> Rec. Date: 08 May'16 >>> ROI: 240% >>> Read / Download
We are confident that we will continue to hunt best Hidden Gems from universe of small caps by doing authentic, in-depth and unbiased research work and support our members to make educated investment decision.

Through Hidden Gems and Value Picks, we are providing you opportunities to invest in such small / mid cap stocks today. Infosys, Pantaloon, Dabur, Glenmark were the small cap stocks in past and today are the well known companies falling under mid and large cap space.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that are either under-researched or not covered by other brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our subscribers on our past recommendations suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future growth outlook.

Time has shown that smart investors have made their fortune by investing in equities in long term. None other asset class can match giving you such extra ordinary returns. Yes, its important for you to invest in right set of companies at right price with medium to long term perspective. If you think to invest in stocks for period of 3 months or 6 months, we suggest you to stay out of stock market because you are not investing, you are betting on volatility of stock market which could be risky.