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Showing posts with label Fundamental Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fundamental Analysis. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Check Fundamentals & Not Share Price while Buying Stocks!

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We started Hidden Gems annual subscription in late 2010 followed by other services like Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days and Wealth-Builder, today we have a strong subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 6 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 167, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 3315 on NSE recently and closed at Rs. 3060.35 today, stock has given as on date returns of 1732% in 5 years from our initial recommendation and 580% return from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We continuously recommended Cera during last year to our members at much higher levels.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Tide Water Oil share price was Rs. 1450 on 1st Jan'12 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 5800). Today the stock price closed at Rs. 6015 giving absolute returns of 315% i.e. more than 4 times within 5 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. We suggested Buy on Tide Water Oil and many of our subscribers might not have invested in it thinking that they can buy hardly 2 shares by investing Rs. 12,000 but now those 2 shares are actually 8 shares post stock split and issue of bonus share and share price is also near to the the recommended price.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech is a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. Today it is hovering at just Rs 3.50. Those who purchased that stock during 2010 are in 94% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 is valued at merely Rs. 6,000 today, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 5 to 7 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

If you wish to invest in fundamentally strong small and mid cap companies which can give you far superior returns compared to major indices like Sensex or Nifty in long term and help you creating wealth, you can join our services like Hidden GemsValue Picks & Wealth-Builder.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that either under-researched or not covered by other stock brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our members on our past recommendation suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 



Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Monday, September 5, 2011

Understanding Fundamental Analysis of Stocks

Fundamental analysis is the process of looking at a business at the basic or fundamental financial level. This type of analysis examines key ratios of a business to determine its financial health and gives you an idea of the value its stock.

Many investors use fundamental analysis alone or in combination with other tools to evaluate stocks for investment purposes. The goal is to determine the current worth and, more importantly, how the market values the stock.

This article focuses on the key tools of fundamental analysis and what they tell you. Even if you don’t plan to do in-depth fundamental analysis yourself, it will help you follow stocks more closely if you understand the key ratios and terms.

Earnings

It’s all about earnings. That is what investors want to know. How much money is the company making and how much is it going to make in the future.

Earnings are profits. It may be complicated to calculate, but that’s what buying a company is about. Increasing earnings generally leads to a higher stock price and, in some cases, a regular dividend.

When earnings fall short, the market may hammer the stock. Every quarter, companies report earnings. Analysts follow major companies closely and if they fall short of projected earnings, sound the alarm.

While earnings are important, by themselves they don’t tell you anything about how the market values the stock. To begin building a picture of how the stock is valued you need to use some fundamental analysis tools. These ratios are easy to calculate, but you can find most of them already done on various financial websites.

Fundamental Analysis Tools

Below are the most popular tools of fundamental analysis. They focus on earnings, growth, and value in the market.
No single number from the above list is a magic bullet that will give you a buy or sell recommendation by itself, however as you begin developing a picture of what you want in a stock, these numbers will become benchmarks to measure the worth of potential investments.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Evaluating Stocks - Cheap or Expensive?

As an investor in stocks, what do analysts mean when they say 'stocks are cheap or expensive'? You often hear this in connection with a story on whether it is a good or bad time to buy or sell.

Often, they are referring to the PE (price earnings ratio) of stocks. This metric tells you how much investors are willing to pay for the earnings a company produces. In general, the higher the PE, the more 'expensive' a stock.

A stock's PE is computed by taking the current price per share and dividing it by the earnings per share (EPS).

Formula: Price per Share / Earnings per Share = Price Earnings Ratio.

For example, a company with Rs. 5 EPS and a current share price of Rs. 50 would have a PE of 10. This tells you that investors are willing to pay 10 times the EPS for the stock.

As you can see, if earnings remain constant, but the price per share continues to rise the PE will be higher. At some point, the stock will be deemed 'expensive,' which often precedes a recommendation to sell. Conversely, as the PE falls, the stock will become 'cheap' and may be a buy candidate.

Of course, PE is just one tool in evaluating stocks, below are some more.

2. Price to Sales – P/S

3. Price to Book – P/B

4. Dividend Payout Ratio

5. Dividend Yield

6. Book Value

7. Return on Equity - ROE

However, none of these tells you at what PE is the stock cheap or expensive. For individual stocks, you need to look at industry peers to compare their PEs. If companies in the stock's sector are showing higher PEs, then your candidate may indeed be cheap. Likewise, if the sector has lower PEs, the stock may be expensive.

You can also look at the whole market to see if, in general stocks are cheap or expensive. A good way to do that is to examine the PE for the Sensex, which is considered representative of the whole stock market.

How to Calculate Dividend Yield?

Not all of the tools of fundamental analysis work for every investor on every stock. If you are a value investor or looking for dividend income then there are a couple of measurements that are specific to you. For dividend investors, one of the telling metrics is Dividend Yield.

This measurement tells you what percentage return a company pays out to shareholders in the form of dividends. Older, well-established companies tend to payout a higher percentage then do younger companies and their dividend history can be more consistent.

You calculate the Dividend Yield by taking the annual dividend per share and divide by the stock’s price.

Dividend Yield = Annual dividend per share / Stock's price per share

For example, if a company’s annual dividend is Rs. 1.50 and the stock trades at Rs. 25, the Dividend Yield is 6%. (Rs. 1.50 / Rs. 25 = 0.06)

Dividend usually declared by the companies in % terms to the face value of the share. For Example, Company trading at Rs. 50 with a face value of Rs. 10 per share declares 10% dividend. That means company will pay dividend of Rs. 1 per share to its share holders. Hence in such a case, Dividend Yield is 2% (Rs. 1 / Rs. 50 = 0.02)

Dividend Payout Ratio - DPR

The Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) is one of those numbers. It almost seems like a measurement invented because it looked like it was important, but nobody can really agree on why.

The DPR (it usually doesn’t even warrant a capitalized abbreviation) measures what a company’s pays out to investors in the form of dividends.

You calculate the DPR by dividing the annual dividends per share by the Earnings Per Share.

DPR = Dividends Per Share / EPS

For example, if a company paid out Rs.1 per share in annual dividends and had Rs. 3 in EPS, the DPR would be 33%. (Rs.1 / Rs.3 = 33%)

The real question is whether 33% is good or bad and that is subject to interpretation. Growing companies will typically retain more profits to fund growth and pay lower or no dividends.

Companies that pay higher dividends may be in mature industries where there is little room for growth and paying higher dividends is the best use of profits (utilities used to fall into this group, although in recent years many of them have been diversifying).

Either way, you must view the whole DPR issue in the context of the company and its industry. By itself, it tells you very little.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Fundamental Analysis: Measuring Profitability

The ROE is useful for comparing the profitability of a company to that of other firms in the same industry.

ROE measures a company's profitability by comparing its net income to shareholders equity (book value). ROE is a speed limit on self-funded growth (company's profit). That is, a company cant grow earnings faster than its ROE without raising cash by borrowing or selling more shares. For instance, a 15% ROE means that the company cant grow earnings faster than 15% annually by relying only on profit to fuel growth.


Higher ROE is usually better. ROE, then, becomes a measure not only shows return of the company is generating, but also of how successfully management has been in running the corporation. Good ROE ratio depends on the company's industry. When looking for stocks, we want to find companies that show an increasing ROE over time. It's a sign to us that management is getting better and better at deciding what to do with its money. The higher the number, the better management has allocated capital.

It turns out that a company cannot grow earnings faster than its ROE without raising additional cash. That is, a firm with a 15 percent ROE cannot grow earnings faster than 15 percent annually without borrowing funds or selling more shares. So ROE is a speed limit on a firm’s growth rate. Many specify 15 percent as their minimum acceptable ROE when evaluating investment candidates.

You also must pay attention on the company's debt when calculating ROE. Recall that shareholder’s equity is assets less liabilities. High liabilities means low equity. The higher-debt firm will then show the higher return on equity. Consequently, you should take debt levels into account when comparing different firm’s return on equities.

Fundamental Analysis: Measuring Safety

To measure the safety of a company, we use the debt to equity ratio (D/E). 

Debt to equity ratio is a financial ratio indicating the relative proportion of equity and debt used to finance a company's assets. This ratio is also known as Risk or Gearing. It is equal to total debt divided by shareholders' equity. The two components of debt and equity are often taken from the firm's balance sheet, but the ratio may also be calculated using market values for both, if the company's debt and equity are publicly traded, or using a combination of book value for debt and market value for equity.

A high debt/equity ratio generally means that a company has been aggressive in financing its growth with debt. This can result in volatile earnings as the result of interest expense. If a lot of debt is used to finance increased operations, the company could potentially generate more earnings. If this earnings is greater than the debt cost (interest), then the shareholders will benefit. However, if the cost of this debt outweigh the return that the company generates on the debt through investment and business activities, the company can go bankrupt.

The debt/equity ratio depends on the industry in which the company operates. For example, capital-intensive industries such as auto manufacturing tend to have a debt/equity ratio above 2, while personal computer companies have a debt/equity of under 0.5.

Fundamental Analysis: Stock Price - Cheap or Expensive?

To find a cheap stock you need to know its fair value. If the current price is lower than its fair value, then you got your self a cheap stock. Cheap stock does not mean it has low rupee value. A Rs. 100 stock is called cheap if its fair value is Rs. 200, greater than it's current price. A Rs. 1 stock is called expensive if its fair value is Rs. 0.5, lower than it's current price.

A simple way to find out if a stock is cheap or not is by looking at it's P/E (Price / Earning) ratio. The P/E ratio is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the profit per share.

PE = Price Per Share / Earning Per Share

A higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of income. The price per share (numerator) is the market price of one stock. The earnings per share (denominator) is the net income of the company for the most recent 12 month period, divided by number of shares outstanding. Investors can use the P/E ratio to compare the value of stocks. If one stock has a higher P/E that of another stock in the same industry, all things being equal, it is a less attractive investment. Normally, stocks with high earning growth are traded at higher P/E values, because investor anticipate the high growth.

A more advance ratio fom PE is the PEG ratio. The Price/Earnings To Growth, is a valuation metric for determining the relative trade-off between the price of a stock, the earnings generated per share (EPS), and the company's expected growth. A lower ratio is "better" (cheaper) and a higher ratio is "worse" (expensive). A PEG ratio that approaches two or goes higher than 2 is believed to be too high. This means that the price paid is to be much higher relative to the projected earnings growth.

The PEG ratio of 1 represents a fair value between the price and the company's growth. Similar to PE ratios, a lower PEG means that the stock is undervalued. If a company is growing at 30% a year, then the stock's P/E could be 30 to have a PEG of 1. PEG ratios between 1 and 2 are therefore considered to be in the range of normal values.

Defining the projected growth rate is difficult. It will be wise enough to use reasonable future growth rate by checking quarter's earnings have grown, as a percentage, over the same quarter one year ago.

PEG ratio is suitable for high growing company and is less appropriate for measuring companies without high growth. Large, well-established companies, for instance, may offer dividend income, but little growth. This dividend will affect price and PEG ratio.

PEG is a widely used indicator of a stock's potential value. It is favored by many over the price/earnings ratio because it also accounts for growth. Similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG means that the stock is more undervalued.

Keep in mind that the numbers used are projected growth and therefore can be less accurate.

What is Fundamental Analysis?

Fundamental analysis is analysis by looking at the company's fundamental, like its financial condition, and profitability. Using fundamental analysis we want to find the fair value of a company.

The calculation is done by using the time of money concept, which is money now is better than money in the future. By knowing how is the cash flow, the in and out of money, you can count for it’s fair price. That’s the difficult thing to do, because you need to predict how much profit will the company make.

The easiest way to do this is to get valuation from your investment firm. They usually have their own research department, and can give you the target price or fair price of a stock. The hard way is to calculate the fair price by your self. To do this, you will need good financial knowledge, and master the industry condition. Choosing big companies with good fundamental, finance performance will bring lower risk, but not always high return. The analysis can be done using economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, interest rate, and oil price.

This strategy is done by selecting cheap / undervalue stocks that has low risk, and good profitability.