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Showing posts with label Nifty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nifty. Show all posts

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Sensex Inching Towards All Time High Zone

We expect the market to remain firm as even advance tax numbers were higher than that of last year, with the positivity from the global front, we are steadily approaching near the all-time high zone and are likely to extend the up move in the coming weeks with required consolidation for the sustainable move.

In the past week, Indian markets continued their strong momentum and scaled new highs. The Sensex and Nifty reached levels last seen in January, 2008, backed by robust inflows from FIIs.

The momentum of the market has been very strong. It is likely to remain so unless there is any significant negative development in the global space. 

Profit-booking cannot be ruled out in the coming days, as the market has risen very fast in recent sessions and many blue-chip stocks are trading at lifetime high levels. However, those corrections should be taken as an opportunity to get into the market.

The market would be keenly watching the meeting of the US Federal Reserve scheduled on September 30. The US Federal Reserve is expected to launch a stimulus package at its meeting, seeing the worrisome situation of high unemployment and weakness in construction activity as indicated by the latest Fed Beige book finding. Though any rate hike is not expected, assessment of the economy and indication of future steps would be important for market direction.

The market remained positive in four out of five trading days in the previous week.

The Sensex ended the week at its best level since January 17, 2008. During the week, the Sensex recorded a gain of 4.2 per cent, its best weekly rise so far this year. The market is sustaining the rally as inflows from overseas investors is coming in relentlessly and in the coming days too, this rising spree is likely to continue.

FIIs infused a whopping Rs 11,300 crore (or $2.43 billion) into domestic equities in the first fortnight of the current month, taking their total investment so far to over Rs 70,000 crore.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

What is a Stock Index?

A stock index is a compilation of stocks constructed in such a manor to track a particular market, sector, commodity, currency, bond, or other asset. For example, the Sensex is an index that tracks the largest 30 companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

What is in an Index?

The stocks in and index are collected in what’s known as a basket. For example, if you wanted to invest in the Sensex, you would purchase shares of the 30 stocks in the index basket. Similarly, in case of Nifty, you would purchase shares of the 50 stocks in the index basket.  You would actually own shares of 50 different companies if invested in Sensex and shares of 30 different companies if invested in Nifty.

How Does an Index Work?

Indexes are designed to track a particular market or asset. For example, the Bank Index (BANK NIFTY) consists of companies that are in core banking space. The logic is that if you buy the stocks in the index, you will gain exposure to the banking sector without having to buy shares in every single banking company in India. The shares in the BANK NIFTY are representative of the banking industry as a whole.

What Does Index-Weighting Mean?

Index-weighting is how the shares in an index basket are allocated; basically how the index is designed. For example, a price-weighted index has different amounts of shares for each stock based on price. A stock worth Rs. 2000 would have 1 share, where a stock worth Rs. 500 would have 4 shares to make it equal to the Rs. 2000 stock.

Another type of weighting is based on market capitalization. The shares of each stock in a cap-weighted index are based on the market value of the outstanding shares. There are also revenue-weighted indexes, fundamentally-weighted indexes and even float-adjusted indexes.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

History of Indian Stock Market

Formation of various Stock Exchanges in India

In the year 1920, a stock exchange was established in Madras called “The Madras Stock Exchange”. “The Madras Stock Exchange Association Pvt. Ltd.” was established in the year 1941. The Lahore Stock Exchange was formed in the year 1934. However, in the year 1936, after the Punjab Stock Exchange Ltd. came into existence, the Lahore Stock Exchange merged with it.

In Calcutta, a second Stock Exchange by name “The Bengal Share & Stock Exchange Ltd.” was established in the year 1937 and likewise in the year 1938, Bombay Stock Exchange also witnessed the formation of a rival Stock Exchange in the name of “Indian Stock Exchange Ltd.”

The U.P. Stock Exchange was formed in Kanpur and the Nagpur Stock Exchange Ltd. in 1940. The Hyderabad Stock Exchange Ltd. was incorporated in the year 1944. Two stock exchanges which came into being in Delhi by the name “The Delhi Stock & Share Brokers Association Ltd.” and “The Delhi Stocks & Shares Exchange Association Ltd.” were amalgamated into “The Delhi Stock Exchange Association Ltd.” in the year 1947.

The depression witnessed after the independence led to closure of a lot of exchanges in the country. Lahore Stock Exchange was closed down after the partition of India, and later on merged with the Delhi Stock Exchange. Bangalore Stock Exchange Limited was registered in 1957 and got recognition only by 1963. Most of the other Exchanges were in a miserable state till 1957 when they applied for recognition under Securities Contracts (Regulations) Act, 1956. The Exchanges that were recognized under the Act after it was enacted were Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, Ahmedabad, Delhi, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Indore.

Later during 1980’s, many more stock exchanges were established such as Cochin Stock Exchange (1980), Uttar Pradesh Stock Exchange Association Limited (at Kanpur, 1982), Pune Stock Exchange Limited (1982), Ludhiana Stock Exchange Association Limited (1983), Gauhati Stock Exchange Limited (1984), Kanara Stock Exchange Limited (at Mangalore, 1985), Magadh Stock Exchange Association (at Patna, 1986), Jaipur Stock Exchange Limited (1989), Bhubaneswar Stock Exchange Association Limited (1989), Saurashtra Kutch Stock Exchange Limited (at Rajkot, 1989), Vadodara Stock Exchange Limited (at Baroda, 1990), Coimbatore Stock Exchange and Meerut Stock Exchange.

A new phase in the Indian stock markets began in the 1970s, with the introduction of Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) that led to divestment of foreign equity by the multinational companies, which created a surge in retail investing. The early 1980s witnessed another surge in stock markets when companies such as Reliance, which created a new equity culture, accessed the capital markets.

Formation of Sensex (BSE)

Sensex, the 30-stock index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, was introduced in 1986 constituting stocks of large and established companies from different sectors. The base year for the index was 1978 -79.

During 1990s, India witnessed radical changes in its policies regarding Foreign Direct Investments and Foreign Institutional Investments as part of the liberalization policies. In 1990, the BSE crossed the 1000 mark for the first time. It crossed 2000, 3000 and 4000 marks in 1992.

The up-beat mood of the market was suddenly vanished with Harshad Mehta scam. It came to public knowledge that Mr. Mehta, also known as the “big bull” of Indian stock market, diverted large amount of funds from banks through fraudulent means. Millions of small-scale investors became victims to the fraud as the Sensex plunged shedding 570 points.

Formation of Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI)

To prevent such frauds, the Government of India formed The Securities and Exchange Board of India or SEBI, through an Act in 1992. With the act, SEBI became the statutory body that controls and regulates the functioning of stock exchanges, brokers, sub-brokers, portfolio managers, investment advisors etc. The objective of SEBI is to protect the interests of the investors in securities and to promote the development of securities markets and to regulate the securities markets. The scope and functioning of SEBI has greatly expanded with the rapid growth of securities markets in India.

Formation of National Stock Exchange (NSE)

While going global, it became a necessity to lift the Indian stock market trading system on par with the international standards. On the basis of the recommendations of high powered Pherwani Committee, the National Stock Exchange was incorporated in 1992 by Industrial Development Bank of India, Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Industrial Finance Corporation of India, all Insurance Corporations, selected commercial banks and others.

NSE enables fully automated screen-based trading mechanism which strictly follows the principle of an order-driven market. Trading members are linked through a communication network which allows them to execute trade from their offices. The prices at which the buyer and seller are willing to transact will appear on the screen and when the prices match the transaction will be completed. It ensures greater functional efficiency supported by totally computerized network.

Within one year of the onset of equity trading at NSE, it became India’s most liquid stock market. Further, NSE is said to have generated a dynamic process of change in the securities industry. It directly spawned new institutions like the Clearing Corporation and Depository and played a vital role in injecting new ideas into the securities markets such as derivatives trading.

Formation of BOLT System

In 1995, the BSE also replaced its open outcry trading system with totally automated trading known as the BSE Online trading, or BOLT, system. The BOLT network was expanded nationwide in 1997.

Decade in building one of the best stock market across globe

The last decade of 20th century has been exceptionally good for the stock markets in India. In the back of wide ranging reforms in regulation and market practice as well as growing participation of foreign institutional investment, stock markets in India have showed phenomenal growth in the 90’s. Investor base continued to grow from domestic and international markets.

Stock markets became intensely technology and process driven, giving little scope for manipulation. Electronic trading, digital certification, straight through processing, electronic contract notes, online broking have emerged as major trends in technology. Risk management became robust reducing the recurrence of payment defaults. Product expansion took place in a speedy manner. Indian equity markets now offer, in addition to trading in equities, opportunities in trading of derivatives in futures and options in index and stocks. Even modern financial instruments like ETFs are showing gradual growth.

Within five years of introduction of derivatives, Indian stock markets now are ranked first in stock futures and fourth in index futures. Indian stock markets are transaction intensive and thus rank among the top five markets in this regard. Stock exchange reforms brought in professional management separating conflicts of interest between brokers as owners of the exchanges and traders/dealers. The demutualisation and corporatisation of all stock exchanges is nearing completion and the boards of the stock exchanges now have majority of independent directors. Foreign institutions took stake in India’s two leading domestic stock exchanges. While NYSE Group led consortium that took stake in the National Stock Exchange, Deutsche Bourse and Singapore Stock Exchange bought equity in the Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd.

In today’s global scenario that witness the flow of capital and goods without borders, India is keen to go along with the trend with its reforms like improving the investment climate by allowing more and more foreign investors to invest in equity and debt markets, allowing Indian companies to issue ADRs and GDRs in international exchanges and enable them to raise resources through wide range of financing routes as well as permitting Indian companies and individuals to invest abroad.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Indian Stock Market Indices - Sensex & Nifty

Sensex & Nifty are more often interpreted collectively with different market records, as both indices are the roots of the Indian stock market. Representing the BSE and NSE respectively, Sensex & Nifty mirror the value of a company in the active stock market.

A group of 30 companies marks Sensex whereas Nifty exhibits the performance of 50 companies. If you read or listen to any Sensex news, Nifty news automatically follows, as the Indian market is incomplete without the figures displayed at these two stock exchange bases. Given the high volatility of the indian stock market represented by the Sensex & Nifty, the layman may find it difficult to understand the fluctuating nature. With expertise, this drawback can be negated.

BSE Sensex puts a close attention on Indian companies and corporate conglomerates like Reliance, Tata, Bharti Airtel, DLF Limited, HDFC, Grasim Industries etc. These companies are the active part of the cluster of thirty companies which run with this index. Index weightage is derived and calculated by using "free-float market capitalization" strategy that proved to be very effective in long run.

As an investor, you can stay informed about the rise and fall of stock prices by watching either Sensex news or the Sensex index. Making intelligent assessments and acting consequently to be successful in the stock market. The BSE has over 6000 companies in its listing, the greatest number in the world. With its 134 plus years of market presence and given its breakthrough role in the formation of the Indian capital market, Sensex has come a long way and the era of the Indian stock market is calculated from the day of the founding of the BSE. Any investment involves the risk factor and the BSE is no exception. Similar is the case of NSE. Stay updated with the latest performance of the Sensex & Nifty to experience a winning rim.

Market fluctuation is obvious in the Indian stock market, and if you are finely tuned to investment strategies, you will definitely gain. Many investment and stock broking platforms like Reuters India provide effective advices and quotes including the A-Z of the performance of Indian markets and world markets. Moreover, the stock recommendations displayed at such platforms, can bring a difference in your investment approach.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

P/E Ratio of Indian Stock Market: 1990 - 2015

P/E ratios in India during 1990 and 2005

As of December 31, 2009, there were 23 government-recognized stock exchanges in India and there were more than 9,700 companies listed on these exchanges. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) lists about half of these companies (4,929).

BSE happens to be the oldest in Asia, having been established as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers Association" in 1875. As of December 31, 2009, the market capitalization of the companies listed on BSE was approximately USD 1,400 billion (approximately 1.1 times India’s annual GDP).

Since BSE has the most well-known indices within the Indian stock market, we focus on a few of these indices in this article: SENSEX (with a base of 100 in 1978-79), BSE-100, and BSE-500 (with a base of 1,000 in 1999 and comprising 500 listed companies in various Indian stock exchanges).

Ignoring dividends, both SENSEX and BSE-100 have grown by 13.4% annually in Indian Rupee terms during April 1, 1991 and March 2005. On March 31, 2005, SENSEX was valued at 6,492.82 (with a P/E ratio of 16.05) and BSE-100 was valued at 3,481.86 with a P/E ratio of 13.72. This growth rate can be partitioned into the following three components:

1. The companies comprising SENSEX and BSE-100 have individually grown at an average annual rate of 9% or more (in real terms) and 15% (in nominal terms).

2. As shown in the table 1 given below, the price-earnings ratio for companies listed in SENSEX went down from 19.68 in March 1991 to 16.05 in March 2005, i.e., an average drop of approximately 1.5% per year. Similarly, the price earnings ratio for companies listed in BSE-100 dropped by approximately 2.4% per year.



3. The difference between (1) and (2) approximates the average annual growth rate of SENSEX and BSE-100 of 13.4% as mentioned above.

Predictions regarding the Indian Stock Markets during 2005 and 2015

The following three main components are likely to result in a strong upward movement of Indian markets:

1. During April 2005 and March 2015, companies listed in SENSEX, BSE-100, and BSE-500 are expected to grow at an annual average rate of 11% (in real terms) and 17% (in nominal terms).

2. In March 31, 2005, the firms in SENSEX were trading at an average P/E ratio of 16.05 whereas they were trading at an average price earnings ratio of 22.8 during 1991 and 2005. Our analysis shows that by December 2015, these firms (that are part of SENSEX, BSE-100, and BSE-500) are likely to trade at an average P/E ratio of 22.8 also, partly because of volatility and partly because the annual growth rates of these companies is quite high when compared to their counterparts in the United States and other developed countries.

3. As a comparison, during the past fifteen years, an average firm in China’s stock market has been trading at an average price-earnings ratio of 23. Clearly, on one hand, since the stock markets in the United States are much bigger and more mature, the companies listed there likely to command a higher premium; on the other, since these earnings are computed on the “last twelve month” basis and since the companies in India (and other emerging countries) are growing more rapidly – as much as 7-8% more – than their counterparts in the United States, we believe that the SENSEX, BSE-100, and BSE-500 will trade at an average price/earnings ratio of 22.8 (during 2005 and 2015).

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