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Showing posts with label Investment Basics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investment Basics. Show all posts

Monday, July 23, 2012

Power of Investing in Stock Market

Power of Investing in Equities - Unbelievable but it’s a fact!

Just Imagine...

How much can you make in 32 years by just investing Rs.10,000 initially in any of financial instruments?

Take a wild guess ???

Let us look at the real example…

If you have subscribed for100 shares of "X" company with a face value of Rs. 100 in 1980.
  • In 1981 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 200 shares
  • In 1985 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 400 shares
  • In 1986 company split the share to Rs. 10 = you have 4,000 shares
  • In 1987 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 8,000 shares
  • In 1989 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 16,000 shares
  • In 1992 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 32,000 shares
  • In 1995 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 64,000 shares
  • In 1997 company declared 1:2 bonus = you have 1,92,000 shares
  • In 1999 company split the share to Rs. 2 = you have 9,60,000 shares
  • In 2004 company declared 1:2 bonus = you have 28,80,000 shares
  • In 2005 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 57,60,000 shares
  • In 2010 company declared 3:2 bonus = you have 96,00,000 shares
In 2010, you have whopping 9.6 million shares of the company.

Any guess about the company? (Hint: Its an Indian IT Company)

Auy guess about the present valuation of Rs 10,000 invested in 1980?

The company which has made fortune of millions is "WIPRO" with present valuation of 342 Crore (excluding dividend payments) for Rs. 10,000 invested in 1980.

Unbelievable, isnt it? But its a Fact! Investing in companies with good fundamentals and proven track record can give far superior returns compared to any other asset class (real estate, precious metals, bonds etc) in a long run.

Will Wipro provide similar returns in next 32 years? Probably not, its already an IT giant.

You need to explore companies in small and mid cap space with good track record and stay invested to create wealth  in a long term.
At Saral Gyan, team of equity analysts keep on exploring good companies with sound fundamentals in small & mid cap space. Saral Gyan team offers Hidden Gems (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks) and Value Picks (Mid Cap Stocks with Plenty of Upside Potential)

Also Read: 4 Hidden Gems which Doubled Investors Money in 1 Year

Subscribe to Hidden Gems and add power of small caps stock in your equity portfolio. Save upto 50% on subscription cost, Hidden Gems subscription charge will be revised to Rs. 7500 effective 1st Aug 2012. Subscribe @ Rs. 5000 and make direct saving of Rs. 2500. Hurry! Last 7 Days.

To read more on Hidden Gems payment options and facilities, Click Here!

Thursday, July 19, 2012

How to Value a Stock - Cheap Vs Expensive?

If you’re new to investing, learning how to choose stocks and investing in the stock market can be overwhelming. Probably the largest mistake that young investors make is to look at the price of a stock as a measure of its worth. In fact, the price of a stock is virtually worthless when trying to value a company.

So what metrics should investors use when evaluating a potential stock investment opportunity? While there are numerous factors to take into consideration, the most popular and well-known metric is known as the price to earnings ratio, or the P/E ratio. But before we get into explaining this ratio, let’s look at why the price of the stock doesn’t tell the whole story.

Stock Prices – Cheap Vs. Expensive

Think about something in your life that you know very well. Maybe you’re obsessed with computer upgrades and performance. You know everything there is to know about computers and when you go to a computer store; when you look at the prices and the specs, you truly know what represents a bargain.

If you were helping a friend pick out a computer, you might tell them that a computer on sale for Rs 20,000 may be a better bargain than a computer on sale for Rs. 18,000. Maybe the Rs. 20,000 computer has a bigger screen, more storage space, and Rs. 5000 of preloaded software on it. With the Rs. 18,000 computer, not only is the hardware pretty shoddy, but there is also no preloaded software, meaning you’ll have to shell out extra money once you buy the computer. You might say “you get more bang for your buck” with the Rs. 20,000 computer. It is this same line of thinking that should be applied to stocks.

Unfortunately, many young investors do not apply the same logic to stock picking. Instead, they look at a Rs. 1250 stock like TCS and call it expensive. So they head to a little known penny stock that is selling for Rs. 0.50 and buy it up like it’s pure gold. The fact of the matter is that if you only have Rs. 2500, there’s a good chance that you’ll make more money purchasing 2 shares of TCS rather than 5,000 shares of that cheap company. Why? Because TCS is a much more stable company with not only a proven track record of making investors money, but also strong growth potential.

The P/E Ratio Defined

Now that we’ve fixed the flaw in the young investor’s logic, let’s look at how to measure value. It’s a little more complicated to evaluate stocks than it is to evaluate computers since there are so many different factors involved.

However, there is one metric which, while it doesn’t make up the entire story, offers an important piece of the puzzle when valuing a company: the price/earnings ratio, often referred to as the P/E ratio or P/E multiple. This ratio, while only one of many that sophisticated investors use, is the most popular and discussed ratio in many investment books.

So how does the P/E ratio work? Think of it this way: let’s say you are considering investing in two public companies, both of which are selling for Rs. 200 per share today. One way of deciding which company to invest your money in is examining how much you will need to pay for Rs. 10 of earnings from each company. If last year, Company A earned Rs. 50 per share and Company B earned only Rs. 40 for share, it would intuitively make sense to choose Company A over Company B since it represents a cheaper trading opportunity. Without even realizing it, you’ve made this decision by calculating each company’s P/E ratios.

The P/E ratio is calculated by taking the current price and dividing it by the earnings per share. In the example above, you would take the price of Rs. 200 and divide by Rs. 50 for Company A and Rs. 40 for Company B, yielding ratios of 4x and 5x, respectively. If you’re not good with math, you can also easily find the P/E ratio in the fundamental analysis section of your broker’s research screens for the stock you’re reviewing or on various stock market investment news and research sites.

Disadvantages of the P/E Ratio

While the P/E ratio is a valuable metric for investors, you don’t want to make the mistake of thinking that a P/E ratio alone tells the whole story. Here are the main limitations of the P/E ratio:

1. Healthy P/E ratios may differ between industries: The concept of using a set P/E ratio to determine if a stock is overpriced fails to take into account the individual nature of the underlying company. Stocks in high-growth industries like the technology industry tend to have higher P/E ratios. On the other hand, some industries such as utility companies tend to trade at much lower multiples. Before you can decide if a stock is under or overpriced, you need to take into consideration the industry in which it operates. Continuing with the example above, let’s say Company B was a high-growth tech company forecasted to earn Rs. 100 per share next year and Rs. 150 per share the following year, while Company A was a low-growth oil company that was forecasted to earn Rs. 60 per share next year and Rs. 70 per share the following year. Now that you have a fuller picture of the two companies, it becomes clear that Company B would in fact be the better company to invest in due to its massive growth potential. Company B’s stock price will likely skyrocket if the forecasts are correct, while Company A’s stock price may not budge by much over the next couple of years. Thus, by ignoring other aspects of the company, an investor might have falsely assumed that Company A represented the more valuable stock opportunity.

2. Fails to consider the debt of a company: The price of a stock reflects the equity value of a company. However, it is also important to consider how much debt the company holds. An investor should never ignore a company’s debt position when buying a stock since debt is a strong indicator of a company’s financial health and future.

3. Earnings can be manipulated easily: Clever accountants have a million and one ways to make companies look more attractive. This can involve changing depreciation schedules, using different inventory management strategies, and including non-recurring gains. These strategies are not limited to corrupt organizations, as firms are given some legal flexibility in how they choose to report their earnings. As a result, because companies have an incentive to make earnings look as attractive as possible, P/E ratios can be presented as being artificially low.

4. Growth companies trade at higher P/E ratios: Since P/E ratios represent not only a company’s current financial situation but also it’s future growth potential, growth stocks trade at significantly higher P/E multiples than value companies. Thus, without understanding what type of company you are considering as an investment, you might carelessly overlook some valuable growth companies simply because of their P/E ratios. In fact, some of the biggest winners of all time have been companies with high P/E ratios. According to Investors Business Daily, in a recent analysis, the top 95 companies had an average P/E ratio of 39 before gaining momentum and reaching an average P/E ratio of 87 at their peak. Yet according to the models of most investors who rely solely on P/E ratios, all of these companies would have been ruled out as being overpriced.

5. False assumption that low P/E ratios represent cheap trading opportunities: Many investors assume that a company trading at a P/E ratio must represent great value. As we know, because of many of the factors stated above, low P/E ratios do not necessarily make the best investments. For example, Suzlon was a company that was trading at single digit P/E ratios before it crashed.

P/E ratios are a valuable tool for investors, but they are not sufficient to identify the feasibility of an investment unless used in combination with other metrics and company characteristics.

Regardless of your opinion on the P/E ratio, you should always examine other ratios as well before buying a stock. These metrics, which help investors evaluate other aspects of a company, include Enterprise Value/EBITDA, Enterprise Value/EBIT, Enterprise Value/Revenue, Price/Cash Flow and Price/Book Ratio.

Final Word

The P/E ratio is a great start to understanding a company’s value proposition as a potential investment. With that said, don’t forget that there are many other ratios and factors to consider other than the P/E ratio. The P/E ratio is just one piece of the puzzle. And if you only take one lesson from this post, remember this nugget of information: the price of a stock is not an indicator to identify value of it!

Also Read: 4 Hidden Gems of 2011 which doubled investors money in one year.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Financial Planning to Beat Inflation

What is Inflation?

We observe that the prices of all goods and services keep increasing. Take anything - sugar, petrol, vegetables, cost of postage - anything, you would see that its price has increased manifold over years.

This is Inflation that what we always keep hearing about. And it can have a disastrous impact on your savings and investments. Reason enough to understand it better?

Understanding Inflation

Inflation means reduction in the purchasing power of the currency. Simply put, it means that the same amount of currency would be able to get you less goods (and services) over time.

For example, today rice costs Rs. 20 per kg. After a year, its price goes up to Rs. 22 per kg. This means that its price has gone up by 10%, or that the inflation is 10% for rice.

This means that for Rs. 100, you can buy 5 kilos of rice today. But after a year, you would be able to buy only 4.5 kilos of rice for the same amount.

Thus, the purchasing power of Rs. 100 has reduced, or, generally speaking, the purchasing power of the currency has reduced. This is known as inflation.

(Note: In practice, inflation is derived from the price movements of a very large basket of goods and services. In the example, for simplicity's sake, we considered only Rice).

This means that the value of a Rupee today is not the same as its value at a later time. This brings us to another interesting concept.

Time Value of Money

Through the example, we saw that the value of the Rupee keeps decreasing over time. The value is highest today, and becomes less and less as time goes by. Although the unit (the Rupee) remains the same, its purchasing power decreases over time due to inflation. 

That is only reason why we transact using 500 Rs & 1000 Rs note today which was not available in old days. Coins not is use with smallest denominations like 5 paisa, 10 paisa, 20 paisa, 25 paisa shows that we could not buy any goods or services using them now a days. Infact 1paisa, 2 paisa coins were also used half of the century ago.

Therefore, you can not compare an amount today with an amount at a later date without considering the time.

Say you lend someone Rs. 1000 today, and he returns Rs. 1000 after a year. Are you at par? No - because the value of Rs. 1000 after a year is not the same as its value today due to inflation. If inflation is 5% for the year, actual purchase power of your money is Rs. 950 only. In such a case, you can invest the Rs. 1000 today at the rate of 7%, and can get Rs. 1070 after a year to beat inflation.

How Inflation and Time Value of Money impacts your finances?

The fact that inflation reduces the purchasing power of Rupees over time has very significant impact on your savings.

Suppose, a post graduate degree costs Rs. 2,00,000 today. You are planning for your daughter's education, and want to save for it today when she is 10 years old. She would need the money after around 11 years.

How much should you plan to have at that time?

Rs. 2,00,000? No! It is not enough to save that much, because this amount would have lost considerable purchasing power in all those years.

You would need to have a lot more at that time, because due to inflation, the same service (post graduate education) would cost a lot more at that time.

This can be achieved if you do proper financial planning by determining your goals, check your investment profile & risk tolerance and start saving & investing based on your goals to beat inflation over a period of time.

Your Savings & Investing in Stocks

Traditionally, Indians are Savers. The savings rate is as high as 30 percent. If not a direct savings in the bank, the money goes into a fixed deposit, gold or real estate. That trend might change soon if more people invest in stocks, which have outperformed every other asset class from 2001 to 2007.

Stocks have outperformed other asset classes by as much as 60 percent, yet only 3 percent of Indian population directly invest in stocks.

The main reasons for this is a lack of knowledge, awareness as well as unethical practices by a small minority of participants who encourage regular churning based on tips and rumours without giving proper financial planning to investors.

If someone invested in a Bank of India fixed deposit account in 2001, he or she would have an 8 percent return per year. If the same person invested in Bank of India stock he or she would have a total return of 3,300 percent as the stock rose from 12 rupees to 410 rupees.

Though Indians continue to be underinvested in the stock market there is more interest coming in from all corners. 200,000 new Demat accounts are opened every month. Recent transparency measures should also bring more people in. The stock market will no longer be treated as a gamble but will be put on par with real estate and gold.

The irony is that even though stock markets as a long term asset class have given the highest returns, short term trading in futures and options has also caused the maximum losses. The maximum numbers of bankruptcies were caused due to the stock market crash in 2008-2009 amongst high risk speculative traders.

It is a garden out there and one need to simply provide sufficient time to grow his quality seeds to get the fruits. One has to know what he is doing and has to be cognizant about it. With a little research and patience stock market investments can yield maximum returns.

So, how will you grow your savings? What are you investing in?

Monday, September 6, 2010

Stock Investing and The Age Factor

How do you decide how much of your investments to put into stocks and how much to put into other types of investments?

Before deciding how much to invest in each, a little financial planning and self-examination is necessary.

Basically, there are five things you need to consider when trying to decide how much to invest in stocks and what to tuck away in other investments:


1. Your Age

2. The Consequences for Your Retirement Planning

3. Your Personal Comfort Level


5. Your Overall Financial Goals

You start by placing your age into a formula which tells you what percentage of your long-term investment money should be invested in aggressive growth vehicles such as stocks.

It simply is:

100 - Your Age = The percent of your investment money that should be in aggressive growth investments.

This formula is straight forward and makes logical sense. When you're young, you have time on your side. If one of your investments goes in the tank, it may be upsetting at first.

However, you have many years before your retirement to rebuild your fortune before you actually need to touch the money. The main risk you have to overcome when you are young is not losing your fortune, but not growing your fortune fast enough.

And this formula doesn't lie!

Clearly, when you grow older, more of your assets should be invested into conservative, income-producing investments such as bonds.

That's because when you're 50 years old you have a lot less time in the job market to rebuild your retirement fortune than when you're say 25 year old.

This formula generally applies to money earmarked for retirement. Or at least money that you won't touch for 7 years or more.

Investing in good fundamental stocks with long term can deliver huge returns, which proves to be far superior in terms of returns when compared to other investment items like fixed deposits, bonds, precious metals like gold & silver and ofcourse real estate.

Are you a serious investor and want to build your equity portfolio with regular investments? Subscribe to Saral Gyan - Hidden Gems (Unexplored Small Cap Stocks Research Reports) & Value Picks (Reports of Mid Cap Stocks with Plenty of Upside Potential) to grow your capital by investing in stock market. Subscribe Today!

Monday, August 30, 2010

Your Investment Profile & Risk Tolerance

To get an idea of your investment profile, start by calculating your investment horizon.

Investment Horizon:

Investment horizon is the period of time, in years, that you wish to remain invested. Investment horizon may be measured as the point in time when you begin taking distributions, or it may be measured as the point in time when you expect to complete taking distributions.

This is the number of years that you can invest. Your investment horizon depends on your financial goal.

Financial Goal:

A financial goal is a goal that involves saving and investing to reach a specific amount by a specific date.

For example, a financial goal may be to save 2,00,000 for a college education fund for a child in 14 years, or it may be to save 30,00,000 for a retirement fund in 20 years.

You can achieve your financial goals through a combination of saving more, saving longer or earning a higher rate of return.

Your goal may be to save for college, retirement, or a down payment on a home. Each goal has its own investment horizon.

For example, saving for retirement at age 65 when you're 20 gives you an investment horizon of 45 years. The longer the investment horizon, the longer you can save and benefit from compounding.

Next, estimate your risk tolerance.

Your risk tolerance is your willingness to accept some volatility in the rate of return of your investments in exchange for a chance to earn a higher return.

If you expect a higher rate of return, you should be willing to accept a higher degree of risk. This is called the risk-return trade-off.

Risk-Return Trade-off:

A basic investing principle that says the higher the potential rate of return, the higher the investment risk. Academic and industry studies support this relationship.

For example, stocks historically offer a higher rate of return than bonds. They also have a higher degree of investment risk. Investment risk is measured by the volatility of investment returns.

To get an idea of your risk tolerance, take a few minutes to complete the below risk tolerance quiz:




































To get your own profile add the number of points for all seven questions

Add one point if you choose the first answer, two if you choose the second answer, three for the third and four points for the fourth question.

If you score between 25 and 28 points, consider yourself an aggressive investor.

Aggressive Investor:

An aggressive investor is an investor who is willing to accept a higher degree of investment risk in exchange for a chance to earn a higher rate of return.

Investment risk is the volatility of investment returns. A basic investing principle states that a higher degree of investment risk is required to earn a potential higher rate of return.

If you score between 20 and 24 points, your risk tolerance is above average.

If you score between 15 and 19 points, consider yourself a moderate investor.

Moderate Investor:

An investor who is willing to accept some investment risk in exchange for a chance to earn a higher rate of return. Investment risk is the volatility of investment returns.

A basic investing principle states that a higher degree of investment risk is required to earn a potential higher rate of return. On the risk-tolerance scale, a moderate investor is in between an aggressive and conservative investor.

This means you are willing to accept some risk in exchange for a potential higher rate of return.

If you score fewer than 15 points, consider yourself a conservative investor.

Conservative Investor:

An investor who is unwilling to accept a higher degree of investment risk in exchange for a chance to earn a higher rate of return. Investment risk is the volatility of investment returns.

A basic investing principle states that a higher degree of investment risk is required to earn a potential higher rate of return.

If you have fewer than 10 points, you may consider yourself a very conservative investor.

This is only an example of a short quiz used by financial institutions to help you estimate your risk tolerance. For specific investment advice, you should always consult your financial adviser.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Investing Checklist - 10 Most Important Element

Every investor's situation is unique, and you have to make all the right moves that are right for your own situation.

You can use the following list to stimulate your own thinking and make your own checklist and moves.

1. Get the Most from Your Cash:

If you have cash in a money-market fund, you know you're not making much money. You can probably do better than you think if you're willing to do a bit of shopping.


2. Shop for Interest Rates:

If you have money in a bank, find the highest interest rate you can to protect you against inflation.

3. Review Your Emergency Fund:

This should be money you don't think you will need any time soon. Try to make this money work harder for you.

A short-term bond fund will pay more than a money-market fund without much additional risk. If you think you probably won't need this money for four or five years, consider using a fund that owns both stocks and bonds.

4. Check Your Asset Allocation:

The way you allocate your assets is the most important investment decision you will make. Your investment plan should specify your percentage allocations between fixed-income and equity investments.

Within the equity part of the portfolio, you should have target allocations for funds as well as for big-company stock funds and small-company stock funds. Your plan should also specify how much is to be in value stocks and how much in growth stocks.

If you have a financial advisor, set up a meeting to evaluate your current allocation. The advisor can suggest any necessary changes.

5. Rebalance your Investments:

When equities seemed to go through the roof, your investments may have taken you some distance from the proper allocation you determined for yourself.

If you began the new year with a portfolio equally split between stock funds and bond funds, you might be able to change it with about 60 percent of your total in equities and only 40 percent in fixed-income funds. What's wrong with that? Too much risk. A portfolio with 60 percent in equities is riskier than a 50-50 portfolio.

Rebalancing gets you back on track. And thereʼs another benefit:

By rebalancing you will be taking some of last year's profits "off the table" and spreading them around. This is called buying low and selling high. Rebalancing makes it automatic.

6. Diversify:

Maybe you think you're already properly diversified. But the vast majority of portfolios are not that well put together. Most portfolios are heavily over weighted in large-cap growth stocks. That may seem fine in a year like the one we just experienced.

But diversification pays off in good times and bad. It's a rare investor whose equity portfolio couldn't be improved by adding one or more of three kinds of funds:

Value, small-cap and international.

7. Determine Your Investment Policies:

Make a written investment policy statement for yourself. Investors who actually do this are far more likely to attain their goals than those who just casually think about it.

Writing a policy statement requires careful thought, but once it's done it will remind you rationally, when the market is trying to manipulate your emotions, what you should be doing and why.

8. Set Measurable Goals:

Write down your long-term financial goals and make a written retirement plan. That plan should specify a target year you want to retire and estimate how much retirement income you will need from your investments.

From there, you'll be able to tell how big your portfolio will have to be when you retire. For a quick rule of thumb, figure that on the day you retire, your portfolio should be 20 times the size of the annual income you want from that portfolio.

9. Make Specific Plans:

If this is starting to sound like serious work, then you're getting the point. There's no free lunch for somebody who would be a successful investor. But the payoffs from this step could be enormous. You could retire earlier or boost your retirement fund by hundreds of thousands.

At the very least, all this written work will give you a clear picture of where you stand so you don't need to rely on vague hopes or fears. Make a written pre-retirement plan showing how you will accumulate the nest egg you will need on your retirement day.

10. Execution:

Finally, keep looking for more things you can do in the coming years to strengthen your financial muscles.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Making Your Own Investment Plan

"It is planning not gambling that produces profit and security!" - Marcus Aurelius (121 - 180)

Basic information about investing is one of the most powerful tools you can use to find success in the market.

Stock brokers are your link to information in the stock market. They will recommend whether to buy or sell shares, help you get the necessary information, develop your investment plan and check the performance of your holdings.

Always remember the following seven critical facts:

1. If investment success was easy, everyone would be wealthy!



2. Focus on the long term, Ttrying to make a "fast buck" is the fastest way to lose money!

3. Understand and believe that your two major enemies are panic and greed!



4. Realize that, depending on personal attitudes, the market is always either "half-full" or "half-empty"!

5. Never invest on "tips!"

6. Nobody can see the future! And finally,

7. The rich rule over the poor and the borrower is the servant to the lender!

Make an investment plan with the help of the following ten basic rules, and do put it into action:

1. Determine the Kind of Investor You Are:
What are your goals for investing and how do you feel about risk?

2. Decide how You Will Allocate Your Investment Money:
What portion of your money will you invest in stocks? In bonds? In mutual funds? How much do you want to keep in liquid investments? Determine how much you need to invest, and how to make these allocations.

3. Select Your Investments:
Choose them cautiously and create a broadly diversified portfolio, so you can minimize and spread your risk over a variety of investments.

4. Follow up on Your Investment Plan:
Once you've launched your investment plan and you have your portfolio, make sure it continues to reflect your goals and keeps working its hardest for you.

5. Monitor the Progress of Your Investments:
Regularly review your portfolio to determine if the value of your investments is increasing. Compare your returns with similar investments and investigate all the facts.

6. Review Your Financial Circumstances and Objectives at Least Twice a Year:
By doing this, you can verify that your investment plan still meets your needs and pinpoint where, when and which changes may be necessary.

7. Make any Necessary Adjustments to Your Portfolio:
Relocate money among your investments to reflect any changes in your investing approach.

8. Patience Is a Virtue:
Invest for market returns year in and year out. Maintain the discipline to hold onto or add to investments through down markets as well as up markets.

9. Cash Is King:
Always keep sufficient funds on an "instant access account" to meet any sudden emergencies, e.g. repairs to your home, a sudden medical expense, or etc. This may be obvious to you but from our experience we can tell you that the number of people who fail to keep this simple rule is truly amazing.

10. And Above Everything Else:
Choose a stock advisor / financial planner you can trust, an investment planner with a proven reliability.

Investing - Understand Your Assets

Whatever its complexity, an economy stands or falls upon very basic foundation stones. Individuals must be free to think and act on their decisions.

They must be able to gain the rewards of being right and must bear the cost of being wrong.

They must be able to concentrate on what they do best, and what they most enjoy doing, instead of spending their time providing for their immediate wants.

They must be able to make provision for the future by preserving a portion of what they have produced.

In short, they must think, they must produce and they must save. And to do that to the greatest and most efficient extent possible, they must trade with each other.

A person alone in nature can certainly think, act, and gain the rewards of being right or bear the cost of being wrong. He can also, by means of great effort, put aside savings, but only for a limited period of time. Indeed, anyone alone in nature has no choice but to do these things, if he is to survive at all!

In our advanced economy, physical survival is not often an issue. The extent to which individuals can think, work, produce and trade freely determines the potential of the economy. The confidence with which individuals can save and invest long term determines the prosperity of the economy.

To save, invest, and plan for the long term is a luxury not granted to anyone alone in nature. It is the exclusive preserve of those living in an advanced economy.

The evolution of any civilized society is dependent on the discovery of the idea of money, and on the discovery of something that can be used as money. The future of any civilized society is dependent on the quality of what can or is used as money.

Money can also be described as an asset. Assets not immediately consumed can be turned into investments.

Investments are falling into one of two following main categories:

1. Real &

2. Financial

The distinction between the two rests with whether or not the asset in question can be physically touched.

Real assets, also known as tangible assets, may be broken down into three groups:

1. Real Estate

2. Commodities, such as gold and silver &

3. Collectibles, like art, stamps, coins etc.

In part due to their finite supply or unique characteristics, real assets normally show the best appreciation when inflation is high.

Financial assets, sometimes referred to as intangibles, are separated into three areas:

1. Stocks

2. Bonds &

3. Cash

Each category has its own risk and reward characteristics.

A stock represents an ownership stake in a company and provides the stockholder with a slice of the company's profits.

A bond reflects a loan made by an investor to either a government or a corporation. To compensate the investor for making a loan, the borrower agrees to pay back the principal sum of the loan plus interest payments on the principal.

The third component of the financial asset menu is cash, though this does not equate with the paper stuff in your pocket. In the investment world, cash is lingo for an asset that is virtually riskfree, such as a bank certificate of deposit.

Over the course of a lifetime of investments, each type of financial asset will have its place in your portfolio.

Stocks are used to build wealth due to their capital appreciation potential, while bonds offer income, and cash is valued for its safe-haven characteristics.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Five Essential Truths of Investing

Markets are notoriously hard to read and people see only what they themselves want to see.

Bulls will find reasons why certain stocks will go higher, while at the same time, Bears will find many reasons for the same stocks to go lower. The seldom-admitted truth is that most of the time, markets exist in some indeterminate state.

The main thing is that you cannot trust consensus and you cannot rely on the "Establishment." You can't find refuge in the herd and you must resist the urge to join the crowd. Your passion of the moment will most certainly create a disaster over the years.

On the other hand, if you do stick with the following five essential truths, you do stand a better than average chance to invest profitably:

1. Markets are unpredictable and ill-suited to forecasts.

2. Long-term fundamentals are key.

3. Investor emotion leads to volatility.

4. Valuation discipline should guide investment selection.

5. Perspective and patience are always well rewarded.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Understanding Value Stock Investing

Value stock investing is a method that involves purchasing stocks that are going at prices below their worth. Value investors search out stocks the market has under priced. They work on the theory that the stock mark over-corrects in relation to fluctuating economic indicators, thus causing stock price changes that do not reflect companies long term value. Thus value investors seek to to buy stocks when their price is arbitrarily low.

Value investing is a very well known strategy. The theory of value investing was laid out by two Columbia finance professors, Graham and Dodd, in the 1930s. The theory is simple: Buy stocks being sold beneath their real value.

Good earnings, dividends, and cash flow are earmarks of a good company. The value investor hunts for companies that are under-rated by the market currently, and looks to profit when market investors catch on to their mistake and share prices rises.

The potential flaw in value investment strategy is that their is truly no objective intrinsic value to stocks. Individual investors working with the same info constantly take the same information and reckon different values for the same stock. This is why the concept known as “margin of safety” is important in value investing. This indicates buying cheaply enough that a profit will still be turned if one overestimates the ultimate rise in share prices when the market fluctuates. In the extreme case, attempting to practice value investment on such junk assets would amount to throwing money into a hole.

Further, there is no exact, objective definition for “value investing”. A certain percentage of value investors look only at a companies present earnings and assets, ignoring future growth, while other value investors craft a more long-term revolving around potential future growth and profit expansion for the company. The value investor must distinguish between a temporarily undervalued bargain company and one that will simply continue falling in value for the foreseeable future. If company X has been trading for the past quarter at Rs 350 a share but drops to Rs. 150 a share, this is not necessarily a value company. It may simply indicate that the company has problems the market is responding to, indeed, the company in question may be going belly-up.

Here is a rundown of the rules of thumb value investors use for choosing stocks.

1. Price per share must be equal to or less than 66.66% of intrinsic worth.

2. Pay attention to companies featuring P/E rations at the cheapest 10% of traded equity securities.

3. The PEG should be below one.
 
4. The stock price must be less than or equal to book value.

5. Equity should be greater than or equal to debt.

6. Current assets must be at least double liabilities.

7. Growth in earnings must be at minimum 7% per year, compounded over the previous decade.

Value investing lacks the glamor of the higher risk/reward styles. It relies not on hot tips or intuition, but a simple, cool headed process of screening stocks by the numbers.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Advice for New Investors

Investing is just one aspect of personal finance. People often seem to have the itch to try their hand at investing before they get the rest of their act together.

This Is a Big Mistake!

For this reason, it's a good idea for "new investors" to hit the library and read may be three different overall guides to personal finance - three for different perspectives, and because common themes will emerge since repetition implies authority.

Personal finance issues include making a budget, sticking to a budget, saving money towards major purchases or retirement, managing debt appropriately, insuring your property, etc.

Many "beginning investors" have no business investing in stocks.

Only after learning about personal finance they should explore particular investments. If someone needs to unload some cash in the meantime, they should put it in a money market fund, or yes, even a bank account, until they complete their basic training.

What Should Young People Invest In?

1. Invest Your Time Before You Invest Your Money.

2. Test Your Strategy Before You Risk Your Money.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Understanding Saving and Investing


In simple economies, there is little distinction between savings and investments.

One saves by reducing present consumption, while he invests in the hope of increasing future consumption.

Therefore, a fisherman who spares a fish for the next catch reduces his present consumption in the hope of increasing it in the future.

Most of the people probably have savings accounts with ATMs to access their hard-earned cash and be able to store away any extra cash in a place a little safer than a mattress. A few of you may even have some stocks or bonds.

Let us explain why while a savings account in the bank may seem like a safer place than the mattress to store your money, in the long-term it is a losing proposition.

If you open a savings account at the bank, they will pay you interest on your savings. So you think that your savings are guaranteed to grow and that makes you feel extremely good. But wait until you see what inflation will do to your investment in the long-term.

The bank may pay you 5 percent interest a year on your money, if inflation is at 4 percent though, your investment is only growing at a mere 1 percent annually.

Saving and investing are often used interchangeably, but they are quite different.

Saving:

Saving is storing money safely, such as in a bank or money market account, for short-term needs such as upcoming expenses or emergencies.

Typically, you earn a low, fixed rate of return and can withdraw your money easily.

Investing:

Investing is taking a risk with a portion of your savings such as by buying stocks or bonds, in hopes of realizing higher long-term returns.

Unlike bank savings, stocks and bonds over the long term have returned enough to outpace inflation, but they also decline in value from time to time.

The rate of returns and risk for savings are often lower than for other forms of investment.

Return is the income from an investment & Risk is the uncertainty that you will receive an expected return and preservation of capital.

Savings are also usually more liquid. That is, you may quickly and easily convert your investment to cash. The decision about which investment to choose is influenced by factors such as yield, risk, and liquidity.

Investments may produce current income while you own the investment through the payment of interest, dividends or rent payments.

When you sell an investment for more than its purchase price, the profit is known as a capital gain, also called growth or capital appreciation.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Approaches to Investing

Here is a small summary of the three major approaches to investing:

1. Fundamental Analysis

Truly superior companies exist, are sometimes undervalued by markets, and can be identified by mostly financial research. Earnings and dividends, stock prices and markets can be adequately forecasted. All these can be identified by analysis of their financial statements. Buy where forecasted price is greater than current price by a satisfactory margin.

2. Technical Analysis

Patterns in past price behavior of a security in question and the overall market can be used to direct profitable trading strategies. Some technical analysts also refer to a company's fundamentals in combination with its technical indicators.

3. Efficient Market Theory

No possible market-beating investment strategy exists. All information relevant to a stock's long-term price performance, including information not publicly available, is already present in the stock price for any given period of observation.

And here are two more "truly real" ways to approach investing:

1. The Proud Way
2. The Humble Way

The proud way is for those who believe that they're smarter than everyone else and can use their insights and abilities to make superior investment choices.

The humble way is for those who believe that they don't know everything. This humble approach leads them to study what has worked over the long term and then use it.

The path to achieving investment success is in studying long-term results and finding a strategy or group of strategies that make sense.

This strategy is the humble way and it does work!

Friday, July 16, 2010

3 Ways to Make Investment Decisions

There are three ways to make investment decisions:

A. Market timing,
B. Security selection, and
C. Asset allocation.

Market Timing

Market timing, including all forms of charting and "technical analysis," doesn't work because nobody can predict the future. Markets move in response to millions of people acting on random daily news, which can't be predicted.

If someone could market time with as little as 51% accuracy, they'd be on the front page of every newspaper every day.

Everyone you see predicting the future is just guessing or are just trying to convince you to buy the stocks they just bought so they'll go up, and they can sell at a profit. It's their job to convince you that they can predict the future so they can move their products and sell their services. Over time, their "mistakes" will lose you way more money than their lucky calls will make you money.

The only people who have the actual data needed to forecast a stock's price are the people who work for the company - and they can't tell anyone because they'd in problem by breaking insider-trading laws.

There's just too many stocks, too much news, and it all happens way too fast to cope with. Company news comes out of nowhere and could bring a stock down before anything can be done about it.

That's way too risky, so individuals, and professionals that manage money for clients, should not waste time trying to pick stocks. But they love to do it because it's just so much fun to be a "player on the market."

It's humanly impossible to find the time to both manage clients' assets in a way to get the results clients need and expect, and keep up with thousands of stocks on a daily basis.

Some may get lucky here and there, but over time the losses of their "mistakes" will greatly outweigh their lucky picks.

Security Selection

The biggest problem with security selection is knowing when to sell. You don't need to be an expert to know when a stock you have been following will go up. Just wait for accelerating earnings growth.

This is usually when people buy because they feel "it's safe now that it's going up." But that's usually when it's time to sell.

Nobody wants to sell anything that's going up, especially when it's a "great company," so they wait to try to get a few more bucks out of it. That's when it goes back down before they can sell it.

Then the investor goes into denial - which usually results in holding it forever because they don't want to take a loss.

You want to buy stocks when the news is bad, and sell them when the news is good. But this is the opposite of what most people actually do in the real world.

These kinds of things alone should be enough to convince people that stock pickers are not to be relied on for anything but recommending stocks they already own so they will go up and sell at a profit, while clients who bought it on their recommendations are left holding the bag.

Asset Allocation

Asset allocation is the only thing that works for people who manage money either for themselves or for clients. It's the art and science of determining how much of the dozens of assets classes people should own based on their financial and life situation.

Asset allocation is very boring, and you're guaranteed to never double your money in one year. But it will most certainly get you the best long-term results.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Understanding Growth & Value Investing

There are two ways to think about investing in the stock market. You can think in terms of growth or value. They are different approaches, each with it’s own unique characteristics.

Growth Investing

Investing for growth means looking for companies that have potential to become a hot growth stock. Maybe they have a new innovative, unique, industry disruptive technology. Or maybe they are attached to some major news that’s being widely covered by the media. Currently, many health care stocks would be considered to have hot growth potential.

Another way a stock could grow is through acquisition. So these investors go around looking for public companies that are looking for buyers or have the potential to be acquired by another large company. Also, growth investors tend to look more at small cap stocks than at large caps.

Indeed there are mutual fund managers who specialize in growth funds, where they buy up companies with potential to grow or to be bought up. If you want to do growth investing but don’t have the time or resources to find these gems, these funds would be a good option for you.

Value Investing

Value investing is looking for companies with good fundamentals, i.e. a solid business model, good management, solid earnings, ongoing opportunities for future growth, no major defects, good financials and so on. You also want to find good companies with these qualities, but are trading at a discount.

That means looking for good companies that the market is undervaluing and buying them up when they are cheap. Warren Buffett is probably the greatest value investor in the world. This is how he has made his $40 billion of net worth, just by value investing.

There are also mutual funds that take the value approach. And you would think that most would go after large cap stocks, which many of them do. But surprisingly, many of them also small cap funds that go after value rather than growth. And the small caps have the added advantage that they are often overlooked by large institutional funds for a variety of reasons.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

6 Steps to Explore Best Stocks for Investment

6 Steps to Explore the Best Stock for Investment

Step-1: Find out how the company makes money

Step-2: Do a Sector Analysis of the Company

Step-3: Examine the recent & historical performance of the Stock

Step-4: Perform competitive analysis of the firm with its Competitors

Step-5: Read and evaluate company’s Financial statements

Step-6: Buy or Sell


Step-1: Find out how the company makes money

Before you decide to invest in a company’s stock, find out how the company makes money. This is probably the easiest of all the steps. Read company’s annual and quarterly reports, newspapers and business magazines to understand the various revenue streams of the firm. Stock price reflects the firm’s ability to generate consistent or above expectation profits/earnings from its ongoing/core operations. Any income from unrelated activities should not affect the stock price. Investors will pay for its earnings from its core operations, which is its strength and stable operation, and not from unrelated activities. Thus, you need to find out which operations of the firm are generating revenues and profits. If you do not know that you are bound to get a hit in future.

Warren Buffet once said that “if you do not understand how a company makes money, do not buy its stock- you will always end up loosing money”. He never invested even a single penny in technology stocks and yet made billions and billions of dollars both during tech bubble and bust.

Step-2: Do a Sector Analysis of the Company

First is to figure out which sector the stock is in. Then, figure out what all factors affect the performance of the sector. For example, Infosys is in IT services sector, NTPC is in Power sector and DLF is in Real Estate sector. Half of what a stock does is totally dependent on its sector. Simple rule-Good factors help stocks while bad factors hurt stocks.

Let’s take an example of airlines industry. The factors that affect it are fuel prices, growth in air traffic and competition. If fuel prices are high, tickets would be expensive and hence fewer people will fly. This will hurt the airlines sectors and firms equally. This would make the sector less attractive because there would be less scope for growth of the firms.

The idea is to find out the good and bad factors for the sectors and figure out how much they will affect the stock and how. What we are really looking at are reasons that will make stock price good or bad or a company look more or less valuable, even though nothing about the company changes. This will give you a broader view whether the stocks will do well or poorly in the future.

Step-3: Examine the recent & historical performance of the Stock

By performance we mean both operational and financial performance of the company. Take out some time to find out how the company has done in its business over the years. Were there issues with its operations such as labor strike, frequent breakdowns, higher attrition or lagging deadlines? If any company has a history of serious problems, it does not make a good buy because chances are high it may have similar problems again. History is a good predictor of future! It is also extremely important to find out the historical financial performance of the company – growth in revenues, profits (earnings), profit margins, stock price movements etc.

Step-4: Perform competitive analysis of the firm with its Competitors

This is most important step in analyzing a stock. Unfortunately, most of the retail investors do not bother to do this. It takes time to do this step but it worth trying if you don’t want to loose your money. Many investors buy a stock because they have heard about the company or used the products or think companies have excellent technologies. However, if you do not evaluate or compare those features of the company with other similar firms, how will you figure out whether the firm is utilizing them effectively or is better/worse than others? We also need to find out whether company is growing rapidly or slowly or has no growth. We would like to cover couple of financial ratios here in brief and explain how to use them to figure out a good stock.

P/E: Price-to-earnings ratio is the most widely used ratio in stock valuation. It means how much investors are paying more for each unit of income. It is calculated as Market Price of Stock / Earnings per share. A stock with a high P/E ratio suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to the overall market, as investors are paying more for today's earnings in anticipation of future earnings growth. Hence, as a generalization, stocks with this characteristic are considered to be growth stocks. However, P/E alone may not tell you the whole story as you see it varies from one company to another because of different growth rates. Hence, another ratio, PEG (P/E divided by Earnings Growth rate) gives a better comparative understanding of the stock.

PEG = Stocks P/E / Growth Rate
We do not want to go into the calculation part as values for P/E are available on internet for most of the companies.
A PEG of less than 1 makes an excellent buy if the company is fundamentally strong. If it is above 2, it is a MUST SELL. If PEG for all the stocks are not very different, one with lowest P/E value would be a great BUY.

Step-5: Read and evaluate company’s Financial statements

This is the most difficult part of this process. It is generally used by sophisticated finance professionals, mostly fund managers who can understand different financial statements. However, there are few things that even you should keep in mind. There are three different financial statement- balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. You should focus only on balance sheet and cash flow statement.

Balance Sheet: It summarizes a company’s assets, liabilities (debt) and shareholders’ equity at a specific point in time. A typical Indian firm’s balance sheet has following line items:

• Gross block
• Capital work in progress
• Investments
• Inventory
• Other current assets
• Equity Share capital
• Reserves
• Total debt

Gross block: Gross block is the sum total of all assets of the company valued at their cost of acquisition. This is inclusive of the depreciation that is to be charged on each asset.

Net block is the gross block less accumulated depreciation on assets. Net block is actually what the asset is worth to the company.

Capital work in progress: Capital work in progress sometimes at the end of the financial year, there is some construction or installation going on in the company, which is not complete, such installation is recorded in the books as capital work in progress because it is asset for the business.

Investments: If the company has made some investments out of its free cash, it is recorded under it.

Inventory: Inventory is the stock of goods that a company has at any point of time.

Receivables include the debtors of the company, i.e., it includes all those accounts which are to give money back to the company.

Other current assets: Other current assets include all the assets, which can be converted into cash within a very short period of time like cash in bank etc.

Equity Share capital: Equity Share capital is the owner\'s equity. It is the most permanent source of finance for the company.

Reserves: Reserves include the free reserves of the company which are built out of the genuine profits of the company. Together they are known as net worth of the company.

Total debt: Total debt includes the long term and the short debt of the company. Long term is for a longer duration, usually for a period more than 3 years like debentures. Short term debt is for a lesser duration, usually for less than a year like bank finance for working capital.

One need to ask-How much debt does the company have? How much debt does it have the current year? Find out debt to equity ratio. If this ratio is greater than 2, the company has a high risk of default on the interest payments. Also, find out whether the firm is generating enough cash to pay for its working capital or debt. If total liabilities are greater than total assets, sell the stock as the firm is heading for disaster. This debt to equity ratio is extremely important for a company to survive in bad economy. What is happening now-a-days should make this extremely important. Companies having higher debt ratio have got hammered in the stock market. Look at real estate companies- their stocks are down by almost 90%. This is because they have high debt level which means higher interest payments. In the current liquidity crisis and global slowdown, it would be extremely difficult for them to survive. Remember, a weak balance sheet makes a company vulnerable to bankruptcy!

Step-6: Buy or Sell

Follow all the steps from 1 to 5 religiously. It will take time but worth doing it. If you do it, you won’t have to see a situation where you loose more than 50% of stock value in a week! Buying or selling will depend on how you stock(s) perform on the above analysis.