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Thursday, October 31, 2019

Will History Repeat Itself in 2019 for BSE Small Cap Index?

Dear Reader,

The BSE small cap index is still down by 32.8% from its peak made in January 2018. The liquidity crisis in NBFCs, the DHFL and IL&FS defaults, collapse in stock price of Yes Bank, lenders dumping stocks of debt laden companies, layoffs in automobile sector with production cuts, and GDP growth slipping to 6 years low of 5% in June quarter have dampened investors sentiments towards broader market. Fear and misinformation has shattered investor’s confidence and hence quality businesses are back to cheap valuations.

There is lot of hopelessness with least participation by investors in small and mid caps in 2019.  The reason is the carnage in stock prices of many well-known companies. Retail investors have taken the back foot and lost their faith and conviction towards investing in small and mid caps due to existing pain in their portfolios.

However, we are quite excited about opportunities emerging in small and mid cap space. You may argue that most of small and mid caps have wiped out your hard earned gains over last couple of years. In fact those who invested in small caps over last 2 years are sitting on significantly higher losses and may be thinking to stay away from them.

But we beg to differ. We firmly believe that these are the opportune times to invest in broader markets instead of large caps. During bear phase in broader markets, negative sentiments around small and mid caps have brought down excellent businesses down to historically low valuations, there are companies which have not seen any change in business fundamentals, continue to grow during these tough times but are now available at decade low valuations. The fall in stock prices of many small and mid caps by more than 50% from their peaks has not happened for the first time. This has happened in past and companies with good business fundamentals have always bounced back strongly.  When overall market sentiments are negative like we are witnessing now due to various reasons along with slowdown in economy, quality businesses also face the heat. As bad stocks go down, good stocks go down with them too. But good companies make a stronger come back with earning revival once economy cycle starts its upturn.

Moreover, the bold decisions and corrective measures taken by the Government recently must augur well to get economic growth back on track sooner than later. Last month, FM Nirmala Sitharaman announced a historic reform by reducing tax for Corporate India. Government slashes tax on domestic businesses to one of the lowest rates in Asia, providing a more than USD 20 billion boost to revive economic growth from a six-year low. Effective from April 1, 2019, tax on all domestic companies will be lowered to 22% from a base rate of 30% currently. The effective new rate will be 25.17% including all additional levies.

Earlier, the Govt had reduced effective tax rates on companies with turnover up to 400 crores to 29.12%, now those companies will also be taxed at 25.17%. The new tax structure for new companies formed from 1 Oct 2019 will attract a base tax rate of 15% and effective rate of 17.01%.

India now has amongst the most competitive tax rates in the region. At an effective rate of just over 25 percent inclusive of all levies, businesses in India need not find ways to reduce or evade their tax burden. With more money in hand, Indian firms can choose to further invest in business growth doing capex or can reduce their product prices to boost sales or reward employees giving higher pay cheques. All these moves will eventually have positive economic impact. New manufacturing companies enjoying a tax-friendly entry is definitely a big positive for "Make in India" initiative, an effort to boost productivity-oriented jobs for lower-skilled Indians.

Slashing corporate tax rate will invite big global manufacturing companies to India as well as encourage Indian companies to expand their operations. Indian Government has not only gave a super dose of steroid to revive weak economic growth but also rolled out red carpet for global companies to invest in India, make in India and grow & prosper with India.

Will History Repeat Itself in 2019 for BSE Small Cap Index?

Looking at past performance, BSE Small Cap Index has never delivered negative returns for 2 consecutive years in past. Small cap index was down by -23.4% in 2018, and as on date it is down by another -8.2%. BSE Small Cap Index which was at 14,767 on 1st Jan 2019 closed at 13,558 today.

BSE Small Cap Index YoY Returns
Now if history has to repeat itself, BSE Small Cap Index has to close well above 14,767 by end of this year. It means minimum upside of 9% from current levels. Looking at dirt cheap valuations of small caps at current juncture and change in sentiments with Government announcing major reform i.e. cut in corporate tax, we believe it is very much possible. And in case if history fails to repeat itself in these 2 months, it will not disappoint long term investors who are accumulating fundamentally strong small and mid size companies at current levels.

More importantly, we are not just looking for recovery, we firmly believe that lot of wealth will be created from small and mid size companies which are doing all the right things without any change in business fundamentals but witnessed crash in stock prices just due pessimism in markets. Over next 2 to 4 years, the same set of companies not only recover their lost ground but also turned out to be multibaggers for long term investors.

In past, BSE Small Cap Index went up by 69% in 2014 and during the same year numerous small and mid cap stocks turned multi-bagger delivering mind boggling returns. These returns were enjoyed mostly by those who held on to their stocks during painful years like 2011 and 2013. BSE Small Cap Index rallied by 58% in 2017 when we witnessed lot of retail participation in broader markets and most of small and mid caps were expensively valued, later broader market went into bear grip with significant sell off in many small and mid caps due to expensive valuations and series of negatives developments followed by slowdown in economy.

If you analyse BSE Small Cap Index YoY returns, you will realise that small cap index not only recovered but also delivered astonishing returns in short span of time once tide turns favourable. In last 16 years, small cap index delivered significantly higher returns in single year every four years. In past, we experienced fierce rally in small caps in years like 2007, 2009, 2014 and 2017. 

Do not stop investing in small caps looking at these turbulent times, its time to do the opposite, this phase has happened before and small and mid caps have always bounced back. Good sentiments as well as bad sentiments do not last forever.

Considering current situation as one of the most opportune time to invest in small and mid caps, we released next issue of our Special Report - Potential 5-Bagger Stocks in 5 Years on 30th July 2019 and shared with our Hidden Gems, Value Picks and Wealth-Builder members. We will also release our special reports - 6 Hidden Gems & 6 Value Picks to Buy / Accumulate in Nov 2019. If you wish to receive these special reports, you can opt for our annual services under ongoing Saral Gyan Dussehra Diwali Offer 2019. (closes today on 31st Oct 2019)
During this festive season, we decided to pass on the maximum benefits to our readers by offering great savings and valuable freebies with our Dussehra - Diwali Offer 2019! Attractive discounts & valuable freebies which make this festive season special for our readers are as under:

1. Discount up to 30% on combo pack subscription (valid up to 31st Oct'19 only)
2. Rs. 1 Lakh Diwali Muhurat Portfolio (Released on 27th Oct'19) - Read More
3. Special Report - Potential 5-Baggers in 5 Years (Released on 30th July'19) - Read More
4. Special Report - 6 Hidden Gems Stocks to Buy / Accumulate (to be released in Nov'19)
5. Special Report - 6 Value Picks Stocks to Buy / Accumulate (to be released in Nov'19)
6. Existing Portfolio Health Check Up under Wealth-Builder Subscription - Read More
7. Saral Gyan eBook - "How to Grow your Savings?" worth Rs. 599 for Free - Read More 

Below table indicates subscription services and discounted prices valid up to 31st Oct'19.

Saral Gyan Dussehra - Diwali Offer 2019
Hidden GemsRs. 10,000 9,000
Value PicksRs. 6,000 5,400
15% @ 90 DaysRs. 4,000 (No Discount)
Wealth-BuilderRs. 20,000 18,000
Combo 1: HG + VP + WB + 15%Rs. 40,000 28,000
Combo 2: HG + VP + 15%Rs. 20,000 15,000
Combo 3: HG + VPRs. 16,000 13,000
Combo 4: HG + 15%Rs. 14,000 11,500
Combo 5: VP + 15%Rs. 10,000 8,500

Simply choose the subscription service / combo subscription you would like to opt and click on SUBSCRIBE! link in above table to make online payment using your debit / credit card or net banking facility. In case you are not comfortable in subscribing online, click here to know about our other payment options and bank details.

Click here to know more about Saral Gyan Dussehra - Diwali Offer 2019.

Time has shown that smart investors have made their fortune by investing in equities in long term. None other asset class can match giving you such extra ordinary returns. Yes, its important for you to invest in right set of companies at right price. Remember, "If you want your Money to Grow, Equities is the only Way to Go" in long term. If you think to invest in stocks for period of 6 months or 12 months, we suggest you to stay out of stock market because you are not investing, you are betting on volatility of stock market which could be risky.

Below are the details of our services:

1. Hidden Gems (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks): Based on fundamental analysis, our equity analysts release one Hidden Gem research report every month with buy recommendation and share it with all Hidden Gems members. Stock finalized as Hidden Gem belongs to small / micro caps space with market cap of less than 500 Crores, expected returns from Hidden Gems is above 100% in period of 12 - 24 months. Once target is achieved, we inform our members whether they should continue to hold the stock or need to do partial / full profit booking. If fundamentals are intact and valuations are reasonable, we suggest to continue to hold the stock for long term for multibagger returns. Annual subscription charge of Hidden Gems is INR 10,000 9,000 under which you will receive total 12 Hidden Gems research reports (one on monthly basis). Click here to read more about Hidden Gems.

2. Value Picks (Mid Caps with Plenty of Upside Potential): Our equity analysts team consider Warren Buffet approach to short list stocks from mid cap segment as Value Picks. Market cap of Value Pick will range from 1000 crores to 10,000 crores. Holding period of Value Picks is 12 - 24 months and one can expect returns of 40-50%. Annual subscription charge of Value Picks is INR 6,000 5,400 under which you will receive total 12 Value Picks research reports (one on monthly basis). Click here to read more about Value Picks.

3. 15% @ 90 Days (Buy to Sell Stocks for Short Term Gain): Based on technical analysis, our team recommends one stock every month to our members. It’s a short term call under which you can expect returns of 15% within period of 90 Days. Annual subscription charge of 15% @ 90 Days is INR 4,000 under which you will receive 12 stock recommendations. We suggest lower allocation in 15% @ 90 Days stocks and higher allocation in Hidden Gems and Value Picks which are our portfolio stocks based on fundamental analysis.​ 15% @ 90 Days stocks recommendations are based on buy to sell and gain strategy, hence we suggest our members to book complete profits once target is achieved and exit in case target is not achieved or stock has broken its 2nd support level as per report. Click here to read more about 15% @ 90 Days.

4. Wealth-Builder (An Offline Portfolio Management Service): Wealth-Builder is our model portfolio of Rs. 10 lakhs and currently we are holding 16 stocks in our portfolio. We suggest higher allocation in our Wealth-Builder stocks which includes best of our Hidden Gems and Value Picks released during last couple of years. Our team suggest all our Wealth-Builder members to invest in the stocks which are part of our Wealth-Builder portfolio. Every month our team updates our Wealth-Builder members which stocks they need to buy / sell / hold with % allocation of these stocks in their portfolio, the suggested changes need to be replicated in the same proportion. Annual subscription charge of Wealth-Builder is INR 20,000 18,000 under which you will receive total 12-18 portfolio updates. We also review existing equity portfolio of our members and advise them which stocks to hold and which to exit based of fundamental analysis. Moreover, we do look at sector wise / stock wise allocation in the portfolio and advise in case of any corrective measure needs to be taken by increasing or decreasing the stock specific allocation. Our Wealth-Builder service is suitable for those investors who have an existing portfolio of at least 2 to 3 lakhs or planning to invest similar amount or more in equity market. Click here to read more about Wealth-Builder.

Hurry! Last few hours left... Discount upto 30% and valuable freebies under Dussehra - Diwali offer 2019 is available only till today.

Do contact us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Team - Saral Gyan