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Saturday, June 19, 2010

Understanding Market Timing?

What Is Market Timing?

Market timing is an investing strategy in which the investor tries to identify the best times to be in the market and when to get out. Relying heavily on forecasts and market analysis, market timing is often utilized by brokers, financial analysts, and mutual fund portfolio managers to attempt to reap the greatest rewards for their clients.

Proponents of market timing say that successfully forecasting the ebbs and flows of the market can result in higher returns than other strategies. Their specific tactics for pursuing success can range from what some have termed "pure timers" to "dynamic asset allocators."

Pure timing requires the investor to determine when to move 100% in or 100% out of one of the three asset classes — stocks, bonds, and money markets.

On the other hand, dynamic asset allocators shift their portfolio's weights (or redistribute their assets among the various classes) based on expected market movements and the probability of return vs. risk on each asset class. Professional mutual fund managers who manage asset allocation funds often use this strategy in attempting to meet their funds' objectives.

Market Timing Has Its Risks

Although professionals may be able to use market timing to reap rewards, one of the biggest risks of this strategy is potentially missing the market's best-performing cycles. This means that an investor, believing the market would go down, removes his investment Rupees and places them in more conservative investments. While the money is out of stocks, the market instead enjoys its best-performing month(s). The investor has, therefore, incorrectly timed the market and missed those top months. Perhaps the best move for most individual investors — especially those striving toward long-term goals — might be to purchase shares and hold on to them throughout market cycles. This is commonly known as a "buy-and-hold" investment strategy.

Though many debate the success of market timing vs. a buy-and-hold strategy, forecasting the market undoubtedly requires the kind of expertise that portfolio managers use on a daily basis. Individual investors might best leave market timing to the experts — and focus instead on their personal financial goals.