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Monday, October 24, 2022

Diwali Muhurat Portfolio 2022 of 10 Stocks is Released!

Dear Reader,

Saral Gyan Diwali Dhamaka Offer
Saral Gyan team wishes you Happy Dhanteras & Diwali. May you have a fabulous festive week ahead!

Samvat 2079 (2022-23) Diwali Muhurat Date: 24 Oct’22 Time: 6.15 PM to 7.15 PM

Muhurat trading is the auspicious stock market trading for an hour on Diwali (Deepawali). It is a symbolic and old ritual, that has been retained and observed for ages, by the trading community. As Diwali also marks the beginning of the New Year, it is believed that muhurat trading on this day brings in wealth and prosperity throughout the year.

The "muhurat" trading session will be of 60 minutes, to be conducted between 6.15 PM to 7.15 PM on the Diwali day, 24th October 2022 on leading bourses NSE and BSE. The special trading session would be conducted to pay obeisance to Lakshmi, the Hindu goddess of wealth and prosperity. It would also mark the New Year for traders as per the Hindu calendar, or Samvat 2079.

Since last year Diwali day i.e. 04th Nov 2021, Sensex and Nifty have given negative returns of -0.8% and -1.4% (as on date) respectively. The probability of getting better returns compared to last year in Samvat 2079 is high considering correction in small and mid caps over last one year. Moreover, with fall in commodity prices, pick up in credit growth and valuations turning reasonable to attractive, broader market is expected to do better compared to major indices - Sensex & Nifty.

The future looks bright for Indian equities as most of the economic activities are back to pre-covid levels. Rising interest rates scenario and high inflation is a concern, however with fall in commodity prices,  pick up in credit growth and overall robust demand, we expect the companies from various sectors to report better revenue and profitability over next one year.

Diwali Muhurat Portfolio 2022
We are pleased to inform you that we have released Diwali Muhurat Portfolio 2022 of 10 stocks today on 24th Oct'22 and shared with all our active subscribers of Nano Champs, Hidden Gems, Value Picks and Wealth-Builder under Dussehra - Diwali Offer 2022 (closes on 31st Oct'22). To know about the offer, click here.

If you wish to receive our Rs. 1 Lakh Diwali Muhurat Portfolio - 2022 of 10 Stocks, you can subscribe to our services under Dussehra - Diwali Offer 2022. We will ensure to activate your subscription and share our Diwali Muhurat Portfolio at earliest today before Diwali Muhurat Session.

We have selected 10 scrips from universe of large, mid and small cap stocks which can benefit investors during next 1 year. We are confident that these carefully selected stocks can outperform major indices like Sensex and Nifty during next 12 months.

Our selection process includes lot of research and data analysis. We first identify the sectors that are likely to do well in next 12 months. Having that done, we further refine our search to select companies from that sector. We create a portfolio worth Rs. 1 Lakh comprising 10 stocks so that it can help investors to create a model portfolio with lump sum investment up to 1 Lakh.

We have given different allocation to each of the scrips keeping in mind the risk versus returns ratio. We have also fine tuned the portfolio with large cap, mid-cap and small cap scrips from different sectors so that the investors can invest in a complete mix of stocks to balance their portfolio. Saral Gyan Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of 10 Stocks for 2022 also include best of Hidden Gems and Value Picks recommended by our equity analyst’s team during last couple of years.

Its time to also review our Rs. 1 Lakh Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of 10 stocks of 2021 released by us on 04th Nov 2021. Sensex has given negative returns of -0.8% (59,772 on 04th Nov'21 to 59,307 as on date) and Nifty has given -1.4% returns (17,829 on 04th Nov'21 to 17,576 as on date) during the year where as Saral Gyan Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of 10 stocks have outperformed both indices giving absolute returns of 0.0% in same period.

Performance update of our Best 10 Diwali Muhurat Stock Picks - 2021
Diwali Muhurat Portfolio 2021 Performance Update

Five stocks out of ten of our Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of last year have given positive returns in the range of 9% to 20%. And another five stocks have given negative returns in the range of -3% to -32%.

We continue to follow our simple but effective approach by evaluating each stock on the basis of below mentioned criteria’s.

(i) Top Quality management with high integrity:

This is an absolutely non-negotiable condition. If the management is not honest, will they want to share the goodies with you? No, they will look for the first opportunity to siphon off the profits and pull the wool over your eyes.

(ii) The scale of opportunity must be big:

Multi-bagger stocks are created because they are able to scale the opportunity rapidly. Titan Industries is a great example. In 2003-04, Titan‘s market cap was 500 crores. In 2022, it is more than 2,36,000 crores. The fact that India is a booming marketplace of 140 crores consumers means that most products and services have a head start at trying to scale up their activities.

(iii) Low debt; free cash flows:

We learnt from the great crisis of 2011 and 2019 that companies with high debt on their books simply get slaughtered. While debt per se is not bad (if the company is able to borrow at a lower rate and deploy it in its business at a higher rate, the operating leverage works in its favour), excessive debt with high interest and repayment obligations can crunch the stock in times of downturn. So, as a long-term investment philosophy, it is best to steer clear of high-debt companies.

(iv) High ROE – Efficient users of capital:

Some company’s management is able to squeeze that little extra of every buck. A ROE of at least 15-20% is necessary to make into the hallowed list of model portfolio.

(v) No High Capex Requirements – No Serial Diluters of Equity:

We know from past experience the demerits of investing in stocks like Suzlon & GMR which have an insatiable appetite for more and more capital. To feed their perennial hunger, these companies dilute their equity by making FPOs, GDRs & FCCBs resulting in total destruction of shareholder's wealth. Companies should be lean and mean requiring minimal capital but generating huge returns there from.

(vi) Reasonable growth expectations:

“If you get a tax-free return of 18% for your portfolio, you must be very happy”. So, stop craving for that overnight multi-bagger. You’ll only end up losing your precious capital that way. Instead, look for well established small, mid and blue chips companies that are growing at a reasonable rate of return (15 – 25%). With time and the magic of compounding, you will have your muti-bagger in your portfolio.

(vii) Valuations:

Most investors are obsessed about valuations, refusing to buy any stock that is “expensive”. However, one must remember that “expensive” is a relative term. If a stock is compounding at 25% on an annual basis, paying a price of 30 times earnings may be very reasonable. A stock like Nestle, for instance, has always been “expensive”. However, if an investor had gone ahead and bought the stock, he would have had an incredible multi-bagger on his hands. On the other hand, in trying to buy a “cheap” stock, one may get saddled with unsavory companies. After all, there is a reason why such stocks are “cheap”.

Of course, one should be careful not to buy in euphoric or bubble times when the pricing may be extravagant and not at all reasonable.

(viii) Concentrated Portfolio:

We like Warren Buffett approach, a believer in the concept of a concentrated portfolio. If you believe in the prospects of a stock you should be prepared to put a substantial chunk of money in it – or nothing at all. There is no point in buying a bit of this and a bit of that because that dilutes your returns.

Of course, we are no match for Warren Buffett and we do not have his conviction levels. So, we’ll stick to 10 stocks to begin with, which means that from 5% to 12% of the wealth will be invested in each stock.

(ix) Diversification:

Last but not the least; a proper portfolio must be diversified across sectors. A bit of Finance, a bit of consumption, some autos, some IT with a pinch of chemical, pharma etc will make a balanced portfolio.

Do write to us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wish you happy & safe Investing.

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Diwali Muhurat Picks 2022 - 10 Best Stocks of Saral Gyan

Dear Reader,

Muhurat trading is the auspicious stock market trading for an hour on Diwali (Deepawali). It is a symbolic and old ritual, that has been retained and observed for ages, by the trading community. As Diwali also marks the beginning of the New Year, it is believed that muhurat trading on this day brings in wealth and prosperity throughout the year.

The "muhurat" trading session will be of 60 minutes, to be conducted between 6.15 PM to 7.15 PM on the Diwali day, 24th October 2022 on leading bourses NSE and BSE. The special trading session would be conducted to pay obeisance to Lakshmi, the Hindu goddess of wealth and prosperity. It would also mark the New Year for traders as per the Hindu calendar, or Samvat 2079.

Since last year Diwali day i.e. 04th Nov 2021, Sensex and Nifty have given negative returns of -0.8% and -1.4% (as on date) respectively. The probability of getting better returns compared to last year in Samvat 2079 is high considering correction in small and mid caps over last one year. Moreover, with fall in commodity prices, pick up in credit growth and valuations turning reasonable to attractive, broader market is expected to do better compared to major indices - Sensex & Nifty.

The future looks bright for Indian equities as most of the economic activities are back to pre-covid levels. Rising interest rates scenario and high inflation is a concern, however with fall in commodity pricespick up in credit growth and overall demand, we expect the companies from various sectors to report better revenue and profitability over next one year.

We are pleased to inform you that we are in process of selecting 10 scrips from universe of large, mid and small cap stocks which can benefit investors during next 1 year. We are confident that these carefully selected stocks can outperform major indices like Sensex and Nifty during next 12 months.


We will share Diwali Muhurat Portfolio 2022 of 10 stocks on 24th Oct'22 with all our paid subscribers of Hidden Gems, Value Picks & Wealth-Builder under Diwali Dhamaka Offer (closes on 31st Oct'22). If you wish to receive our Rs. 1 Lakh Diwali Muhurat Portfolio - 2022 of 10 Stocks, you can subscribe to our services under Diwali Dhamaka Offer 2022To know about the offer, click here.

Our selection process includes lot of research and data analysis. We first identify the sectors that are likely to do well in next 12 months. Having that done, we further refine our search to select companies from that sector. We create a portfolio worth Rs. 1 Lakh comprising 10 stocks so that it can help investors to create a model portfolio with lump sum investment up to 1 Lakh.

We will give different allocation to each of the scrips keeping in mind the risk versus returns ratio. We will also fine tuned the portfolio with large cap, mid-cap and small cap scrips from different sectors so that the investors can invest in a complete mix of stocks to balance their portfolio. Saral Gyan Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of 10 Stocks for 2022 will also include best of Hidden Gems and Value Picks recommended by our equity analyst’s team during last couple of years.

Its time to also review our Rs. 1 Lakh Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of 10 stocks of 2021 released by us on 04th Oct 2021. We are pleased to share that our portfolio has marginally outperformed major indices Sensex and Nifty by 79% and 76% respectively. Sensex has given negative returns of -0.8% (59,772 on 04th Nov'21 to 59,307 as on date) and Nifty has given -1.4% returns (17,829 on 04th Nov'21 to 17,576 as on date) during the year where as Saral Gyan Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of 10 stocks have outperformed both indices giving absolute returns of 0.0% in same period.

Performance update of our Best 10 Diwali Muhurat Stock Picks - 2021

Five stocks out of ten of our Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of last year have given positive returns in the range of 9% to 20%. And another five stocks have given negative returns in the range of -3% to -32%.

We continue to follow our simple but effective approach by evaluating each stock on the basis of below mentioned criteria’s.

(i) Top Quality management with high integrity:

This is an absolutely non-negotiable condition. If the management is not honest, will they want to share the goodies with you? No, they will look for the first opportunity to siphon off the profits and pull the wool over your eyes.

(ii) The scale of opportunity must be big:

Multi-bagger stocks are created because they are able to scale the opportunity rapidly. Titan Industries is a great example. In 2003-04, Titan‘s market cap was 500 crores. In 2022, it is more than 2,36,000 crores. The fact that India is a booming marketplace of 140 crores consumers means that most products and services have a head start at trying to scale up their activities.

(iii) Low debt; free cash flows:

We learnt from the great crisis of 2011 and 2019 that companies with high debt on their books simply get slaughtered. While debt per se is not bad (if the company is able to borrow at a lower rate and deploy it in its business at a higher rate, the operating leverage works in its favour), excessive debt with high interest and repayment obligations can crunch the stock in times of downturn. So, as a long-term investment philosophy, it is best to steer clear of high-debt companies.

(iv) High ROE – Efficient users of capital:

Some company’s management is able to squeeze that little extra of every buck. A ROE of at least 15-20% is necessary to make into the hallowed list of model portfolio.

(v) No High Capex Requirements – No Serial Diluters of Equity:

We know from past experience the demerits of investing in stocks like Suzlon & GMR which have an insatiable appetite for more and more capital. To feed their perennial hunger, these companies dilute their equity by making FPOs, GDRs & FCCBs resulting in total destruction of shareholder's wealth. Companies should be lean and mean requiring minimal capital but generating huge returns there from.

(vi) Reasonable growth expectations:

“If you get a tax-free return of 18% for your portfolio, you must be very happy”. So, stop craving for that overnight multi-bagger. You’ll only end up losing your precious capital that way. Instead, look for well established small, mid and blue chips companies that are growing at a reasonable rate of return (15 – 25%). With time and the magic of compounding, you will have your muti-bagger in your portfolio.

(vii) Valuations:

Most investors are obsessed about valuations, refusing to buy any stock that is “expensive”. However, one must remember that “expensive” is a relative term. If a stock is compounding at 25% on an annual basis, paying a price of 30 times earnings may be very reasonable. A stock like Nestle, for instance, has always been “expensive”. However, if an investor had gone ahead and bought the stock, he would have had an incredible multi-bagger on his hands. On the other hand, in trying to buy a “cheap” stock, one may get saddled with unsavory companies. After all, there is a reason why such stocks are “cheap”.

Of course, one should be careful not to buy in euphoric or bubble times when the pricing may be extravagant and not at all reasonable.

(viii) Concentrated Portfolio:

We like Warren Buffett approach, a believer in the concept of a concentrated portfolio. If you believe in the prospects of a stock you should be prepared to put a substantial chunk of money in it – or nothing at all. There is no point in buying a bit of this and a bit of that because that dilutes your returns.

Of course, we are no match for Warren Buffett and we do not have his conviction levels. So, we’ll stick to 10 stocks to begin with, which means that from 5% to 12% of the wealth will be invested in each stock.

(ix) Diversification:

Last but not the least; a proper portfolio must be diversified across sectors. A bit of Finance, a bit of consumption, some autos, some IT with a pinch of chemical, pharma etc will make a balanced portfolio.

Saral Gyan Diwali Muhurat Portfolio of 10 Stocks will be emailed to all our Hidden GemsValue Picks and Wealth-Builder members on 24th Oct'22. Portfolio stocks holding period is minimum of one year, same will be evaluated by our analysts next year before Diwali festival. 

Do write to us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wish you happy & safe Investing.

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan

Saturday, October 22, 2022

TCPL Packaging - 18-Bagger Stock - CAGR of 33.7% in 10 Yrs

Dear Reader,

We are pleased to inform you that our Hidden Gem stock of Jan'13 - TCPL Packaging Ltd (BSE Code: 523301, NSE Code: TCPLPACK) is a 18-Bagger stock for our Hidden Gems members within 10 years. Our team suggested Buy on TCPL Packaging Ltd at average price of 70.50 on 31st Jan'13 with a target price of Rs. 160. We suggested our members to book partial profits around 700 - 750 levels in 2018 considering expensive valuations and later suggested to add the stock again around 350 - 450 levels. TCPL Packaging stock price made all time high of Rs. 1541.80 (maximum returns of 2086%) and closed at Rs. 1293.85 this week, giving CAGR returns of 33.7% and absolute returns of 1735% returns to our Hidden Gems members within period of 10 years.

Net profit of TCPL Packaging rose 282% to Rs. 22.73 crore in June 2022 quarter as against Rs. 5.95 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2021. Sales rose 49.93% to Rs. 334.19 crore in June 2022 quarter as against Rs. 222.89 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2021.

Below is the summary of TCPL Packaging Ltd shared by our team under Hidden Gem stock recommendation - Jan'13

1. Company Background

TCPL Packaging Ltd., (formerly known as Twenty-First Century Printers Ltd) was promoted by the Kanoria family, and began commercial production in April 1990. It is one of India's largest manufacturers of printed folding cartons, and one of the few listed packaging companies in India. 

Today, TCPL Packaging Ltd. operates out of its six manufacturing units ; three in Silvassa, 180 kms from Mumbai in Western India ; two in Haridwar, 200 kms from Delhi in Northern India ; and one in Goa, 600 kms from Mumbai in Western India. All the plants are ISO 9001: 2008, ISO 22000: 2005 certified and are also compliant with BRC/IoP Global Standard-Packaging Issue 3, which is suitable for direct food contact. In addition, plants at Silvassa and Haridwar are also FSC certified & SEDEX Compliant. 

TCPL is one of the largest exporters of printed cartons from India. It regularly caters to consumers in countries like UK, The Netherlands, UAE, Bangladesh etc. Exports constitute about 17% of TCPL's annual revenues.

TCPL is the country's second largest carton manufacturer after ITC. While ITC manufactures carton for captive consumption, TCPL biggest clients are Godfrey Philips India, Nestle India, Colgate, Godrej, HLL, Seagram and Jagatjit Industries. TCPL prints Shells and Hinge Lid Blanks required by cigarette manufacturing companies and Cartons, Boxes & other packaging material for various companies in the booming liquor, FMCG, Food & Beverages segment and others.

TCPL won several awards for excellence in printing from Paper, Film & Foil Converters Association for cartons manufactured for various customers. TCPL has core manufacturing business and enjoys reputation of a reliable packaging company for supply of various types of packaging materials to large foreign and domestic companies. It is presently consolidating its operations and working on new product offerings.

As part of its expansion plans, TCPL recently purchased an additional plot of land in the vicinity Haridwar plant to set up a corrugation unit that will mainly produce E-flute corrugated cartons. The unit commenced operation by Q1FY13.

For the financial year ended 31st March 2012, TCPL's revenues were Rs.295.68 crores (US$ 59 million) registering a CAGR in excess of 20% over the past five years. TCPL is currently converting approx. 3500 tons of paperboard every month, making TCPL one of India’s largest converters of paperboard. 

Production Facilities 

1. The Silvassa Factory
TCPL Packaging is now operating three plants at Silvassa. Of the three plants, one houses the web fed gravure machines, the second houses sheet fed offset machines and the third is a dedicated facility for corrugated cartons. As a result the Silvassa operations are extremely versatile allowing TCPL to offer printing on a variety of substrates and combinations thereof, as also capability to cater to a variety of requirements depending on the nature of the job in terms of volume and print appearance 

Gravure Packaging Unit: This exclusive gravure printing facility was set-up in January 2010 and houses three 10 colour gravure presses all with inline die cutting facilities. Of the three presses, two have been imported earlier from Komori Chambon and the third and latest one is imported from ATN Industrie, France. Two of the above three presses have the capability to rotary die cut and emboss inline besides printing in one operation. The plant is also equipped with a specialised Bobst offline die cutting and foil stamping machinery besides facilities for lamination of film to board. The printing machines are also equipped with online defect detection camera to guarantee 100% defect free supplies. 

Offset Packaging Unit: This unit houses three MAN Roland 700 offset presses all of which are six colour with inline coaters. The plant is also equipped with multiple line Bobst folder-gluers and die-cutters as well as window patching machines. Besides, the facility also has equipments for hot foil stamping, automatic film lamination and every other conceivable finishing capability. Of the three offset machines, one is equipped with interdeck UV driers capable of printing on plastic and non-absorbent substrates. The die-cutter and folder gluers are also similarly equipped to handle plastic substrates. In addition, a sheet fed gravure printing machine has also been recently commissioned, enabling the plant to print by both offset and gravure or in combination thereof. 

Fluted Carton Unit: This unit set-up in March 2010 is a dedicated facility for production of E / F fluted cartons. It houses 2 lines of E/F fluting corrugation single facers, Litho Laminator, three special die cutting equipment designed for fluted cartons and specialised folder gluers from Bobst equipped for gluing/folding of fluted cartons. The plant is also equipped with a hot room for control of moisture and is fully equipped to handle sophisticated requirements of E / F fluted cartons. 

2. The Haridwar Factory 

TCPL Packaging is now operating two plants at Haridwar. Of the two plants, one houses the sheet fed offset machines, and the second one is a dedicated facility for corrugated cartons. 

Offset Packaging Unit 

Printing: Haridwar plant is equipped with two Mitsubishi LX six color sheet fed offset printing machines, one KBA 106 six color sheet fed offset printing machine equipped with in-line coaters besides a sheet-fed gravure printing machine to enable it to print offset-gravure combination jobs. 

Die-cutting: Multiple number of state-of-art die cutters from Bobst with in-line stripping facility. 

Folding & Glueing: Multiple lines of high speed folding and glueing facilities from Bobst equipped with crash lock bottom devices. Folding & Glueing equipment at Haridwar plant is equipped with a Code Reader Xtend Series from Baumer HHS in combination with lower glue line detection. 

Window Patching / Liner Capability: Three Heiber & Schroder Window Patching machines with liner capability. 

Fluted Carton Unit 

This unit set-up in March 2012 is a dedicated facility with state-of-the art technology for production of E / F fluted cartons. It houses one line of E / F fluting corrugation single facer, Litho Laminator with all latest and automated features, special die cutting equipment designed for fluted cartons and specialised and renowned folder gluer equipped for gluing/folding of fluted cartons. The plant is also equipped with latest testing equipments for quality assurance and a hot room for control of moisture and is fully equipped to handle sophisticated requirements of E / F fluted cartons. 

3. The Goa Factory 

TCPL operates one plant at Goa. This unit set-up in July 2012 is a dedicated facility for production of E/F/N fluted cartons. It houses 2 lines of E/F/N fluting corrugation single facers, Litho Laminator, three special die cutting equipment designed for fluted cartons and specialized folder gluers from Bobst equipped for gluing E/F/N and straight line glued cartons at high speed. The plant is also equipped with a hot room (de- humidifier) for control of moisture and is fully equipped to handle sophisticated requirements of E/F/N fluted cartons. 

The Prepress Centre 
TCPL always put best of its efforts to exceed customer expectations. It is with this objective that TCPL has promoted a company viz. Accura Reprotech Pvt. Ltd., (ART) based out of Mumbai which is responsible for prepress and repro activities of the company. ART has been set-up to focus on areas such as structural and graphic design, use of varied raw material and suggesting to customers, different types of finishes to be incorporated in their packaging

This centre is located in heart of Mumbai making it easy for customers to visit the centre and experiment with different possibilities. ART is equipped with Esko Graphics Suite 10 PDF enabled workflow and has all facilities under one roof geared up for designing, editing and processing of jobs. The facility is also equipped with the latest Kongsberg Sample Table for the production of printed / unprinted cartons including complete proofing facility. ART is connected to both manufacturing plants by dedicated leased lines and to customers via FTP (File transfer protocol). 

Product Portfolio 

1. CIGARETTES: TCPL Packaging Ltd. is currently catering to the Phillip Morris and BAT associate companies in India and other leading cigarette manufacturers in the region. TCPL can undertake both long and short run jobs either by gravure or offset process. The packs are subject to stringent quality checks such as GC tester and crease stiffness tester which are available at its laboratories. 

In the financial year ended 31st March 2012, TCPL produced in excess of 2.2 billion packs for the tobacco industry. The significant benefit that TCPL can offer its customers in the cigarette industry is its capability to offer value additions by way of UV varnishing, offset gravure combination, matt/gloss varnishes etc. 

2. LIQUOR: TCPL is currently one of the largest manufacturers of liquor cartons in India, catering to all liquor majors in the industry. With its versatile printing facility, it can manufacture liquor cartons with inline UV varnish as well as die cutting in a single operation. 

A significant amount of its revenues comes from sales to liquor majors such as Pernod Ricard, Diageo, United Spirits, Radico Khaitan, Jagatjit Industries, Allied Blenders, Bacardi and other liquor producers. TCPL possesses the unique capability of printing by a combination of offset and gravure thereby enhancing the look of the pack in a very cost effective manner. 

3. FOOD: TCPL is a regular and approved vendor to leading food and beverage manufacturing companies in India such as Nestle, General Mills, Ferrero, GSK, Kellogg India, Heinz, Amul, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Global Beverages, Cadbury/Mondelez International and many other smaller Indian companies. Besides, TCPL is a regular exporter to the food and bakery industry in UAE, Netherlands and UK. Amongst TCPL's capabilities include conversion of 4 and 6 corner glued cartons and liner cartons. It is one of the few Indian packaging companies to have achieved BRC and SEDEX certification. 

4. FMCG: Having online coating and expertise in surface printing on metallised polyester laminated board and plastic substrates. TCPL caters to a large number of clients in the FMCG sector. Besides, TCPL also assists its customers in product innovation and design. Its extensive expertise in providing customers with both structural & graphic design is a big advantage for its customers to offer value added and unique packaging for the market place. 

TCPL has been increasing its customer base in this arena and catering to a wide variety of companies. Amongst its many customers are Hindustan Unilever, Emami, Anchor, Colgate, Godrej Sara Lee, Godrej Consumer Products, Cavin Kare, Marico, Johnson & Johnson, S.C.Johnson, Cholayil, Hygeinic Research, etc. Both offset plants are equipped to print on met pet substrates besides having hot foil stamping capabilities and capability to glue with hot melt as well as PUR based adhesives. 

5. OTHERS: TCPL's clients include host of other customers in segments such as automobile, stationery, pharmaceuticals and the airline industry. TCPL is already supplying to highly reputed international airline companies such as Gulf Air, KLM and Indian airline companies such as Kingfisher and Jet Airways. In the stationery segment, TCPL caters to one of the largest stationery products manufacturer in the country, Hindustan Pencils Ltd. In the automobile industry, TCPL is an established supplier to industry leaders, Mico Bosch & Tata Motors. 

2. Recent Development (31st Jan'13)

1. TCPL Packaging inks technical collaboration agreement with AR Packaging Group 

TCPL Packaging has signed a technical collaboration agreement with AR Packaging Group AB, Lund Sweden. The objective of the agreement is a strategically partnership mainly in the manufacturing, sourcing and sales and marketing in India for solid folding cartons. The board at its meeting held on November 10, 2012 has taken the note of it. 

AR Packaging Group AB, offers packaging and packaging machinery solutions, cardboard packaging and folding cartons to various market segments. The company also offers solid board solutions as secondary packaging for brewery products, and solutions for various consumer products, including confectionery, cereals, fast food, frozen food, tobacco, pet food, and non food. The manufacturing activities are carried through 14 production plants in eight European countries alongside operating sales offices in Asia, Europe, Africa and the US. It is headquartered at Malmo, Sweden. 

2. Capacity Expansion to meet customer needs and to offer Innotive packaging solutions 

During the FY12, TCPL added a third printing machine at Haridwar. During the last 5 years, TCPL has spent about 150 crore and enhanced its capacity to 50,400 TPA from 21,000 TPA in FY07. TCPL's corrugated cartons plant at Haridwar commenced production from March 2012. Besides, TCPL is also adding a new facility for manufacturing of corrugated cartons at Goa. The total Capex incurred at various locations was to the tune of 33 crore for the year 2011-12. 

TCPL Packaging Ltd, one of the largest manufacturers and leading exporter of printed cartons in India. TCPL has three manufacturing units in Silvassa and two in Haridwar, Uttarakhand and one in Goa. TCPL is an ISO 9001:2008, ISO 22000:2005, BRC/IoP certified and SEDEX Compliant packaging company. TCPL also produces a wide range of products such as printed blanks & others, Folding Cartons, Litho Lamination, Plastic cartons, Blister paper, Shelf ready packaging. It caters to the segments like Cigarette, Liquor, Food, FMCG etc. 

3. Key Concerns / Risks

i) The company’s customers are large and price setters and may have limited pricing power in times of high cost pressures. This may result in shrinking margins which can adversely affect the bottomline of the company. 

ii) The Company being a manufacturer of the packaging material required for cigarette and liquor is always exposed to the general risks such as government regulations and policies, statutory compliances, economy related, market related. 

iii) New projects at Haridwar and Goa and increase in customer demand simultaneously leads to pressure on the profit margins as the Company has to face competition from various manufacturers in the domestic market. 

4. Saral Gyan Recommendation (31st Jan'13)

i) Packaging industry in India is one of the fastest growing Industries, which has its influence on all industries directly or indirectly. The Indian packaging industry is above $ 20 billion with a growth rate of above 15% per annum which is expected to increase further and offers great business opportunity for TCPL Packaging Ltd. 

ii) Packaging of essential products like food, beverage and pharmaceuticals are the key driving segments because of the huge domestic consumption. India is ranked 15th in the world for its paper and paperboard consumption and is expected to improve its rank in the future. In India, per capita paper consumption is still only 10 kg as compared to 42 kg in China and world average of 57 kg. 

iii) Growth in use of packaged goods as life style changes (urbanization) and manufacturing off-shoring from developed countries increase need for packaging Materials. Other factors affecting growth of packaging industry in India are urbanisation, increasing health consciousness, changing food habits, global trends for plastic substitution in many end use applications and cost advantage. 

iv) Company’s debt to equity is high and interest coverage ratio is also low. This combination is generally not a good signal and doesn’t warrant a value investment. But we expect higher interest coverage ratio and lower debt over next 1/2 years which will strengthen balance sheet and support higher valuations for the stock. 

v) Considering recent expansion and growth opportunities in the industry, we expect TCPL to deliver bottom line of 141 million for FY’12–13 and 216 million for FY’13–14 with estimated annualized EPS of Rs. 16.2 & 24.9 respectively. Company has paid consistent dividend year after year and dividend yield at CMP is 2.7%. 

vi) On equity of Rs. 87 million, the estimated annualized EPS for FY 12-13 works out to Rs. 16.20. Book value per share is Rs. 87.43 and stock price to book value is 0.86. At current market price of Rs. 74.85, share is trading at a P/E of 4.6X on FY 12–13 and 3.0X on FY 13–14 which makes stock valuations attractive with a medium to long term view of 18-24 months.

Considering attractive valuations and long term growth potential, Saral Gyan Team recommends “BUY” on TCPL Packaging Ltd for a target of Rs. 160 over a period of 18-24 months.

Buying Strategy:

70% at current market price of Rs. 74.85
30% at price range of Rs. 50 – 60

To Read / Download Saral Gyan Hidden Gem - Jan'13 Research Report - Click Here

TPCL Packaging Ltd is 1 out of those 65 multibagger stocks which have given returns in the range of more 200% to 9900% returns to our subscribers in period of 3 to 10 years. Team of equity analysts at Saral Gyan put lot of efforts & smart work to identify Hidden Gems (Unexplored Multibagger Small Cap Stocks) and Value Picks (Mid Caps with Plenty of Upside Potential) which not only grow your capital at a healthy rate but also ensures protection of your capital during market downturn.

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