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Showing posts with label Stock Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Analysis. Show all posts

Thursday, December 29, 2022

Hidden Gem - Pix Transmission - ROI of 100% in 18 Months

Dear Reader,

We are pleased to share that we released our Hidden Gem Report on Pix Transmissions on 23rd May 2021 having market capital of 600 crores with multibagger potential. We recommended the stock at price of Rs. 441 for target of Rs 800, we are glad to inform you that the company has already achieved its target price within one year. 

Pix Transmission stock made all time high of Rs. 1174 at beginning of this year delivering maximum returns of 165%. Today, Pix Transmission stock price closed at Rs. 867 and is already a 2-Bagger stock for our Hidden Gems members.

Below is the summary of Pix Transmission Ltd Report released by our team as Hidden Gem Stock on 23rd May 2021.

1. Company Background

Pix Transmissions Multibagger Hidden GemIncorporated in July, 1981, Pix Transmission Limited is a public limited company promoted by Mr. Amarpal S Sethi (Chairman and Managing Director) and is engaged in the manufacturing of mechanical power transmission solutions like rubber V-belts, cut edge belts, ribbed belts, synchronous belts, timing belts etc.

Pix Transmission is among the most reliable manufacturers in the global Mechanical Power Transmission industry with an extensive range of high-performance V-Belts, Timing and Poly-V belts to suit a wide array of Industrial, Agricultural, Lawn & Garden and Automotive applications. The company has state-of-the-art development, manufacturing & testing facilities to ensure highly reliable solutions for almost all applications involving Rubber Transmissions Belts, in compliance with all international standards and a host of Global Quality Certifications.

The global credentials of the company are evident by its operations in India, Europe and the Middle-East, in addition to over 250 committed Channel Partners in over 100 countries worldwide.
Pix Transmissions Stock Analysis
Considering its global customer base, Pix Transmission has backed its products by building an impressive support infrastructure in several key markets across the globe including the UK, Germany, and UAE. Each of these locations houses a Distribution Centre and is equipped to provide technical, commercial, and logistical support. PIX is perhaps among a few global companies in its Industry to feature a high level of infrastructure outside the home country.

Pix Transmission is promoted by Mr. Amarpal S Sethi (Chairman and Managing Director). He has five decades of experience in the mechanical power transmissions space. There are two manufacturing units of the company located at Hingna and Nagalwadi & an automated rubber mixing facility at Nagalwadi in Nagpur, Maharashtra. Under his able guidance, Pix Transmission has become as one of the major players in the V-belt industry. The day-to day operations of the company are managed by a team of qualified and experienced professionals headed by Mr. Sonepal S. Sethi (Joint Managing Director) having vast experience in the V-belt industry.

Pix Product Range:  

Pix Transmissions Multibagger Product Range

Application Industries:

Pix Transmissions Stock Report Analysis

2. Recent Developments (23 May 2021)

i) Pix Transmission kicks off major expansion for capacity enhancement – Apr 2021

The company is expanding its value added product range and plans to significantly enhance manufacturing capacity for the same with a view to meet market demand for the foreseeable future.

Pix Transmission has commenced the first phase of its belt capacity expansion at its Nagpur facility. The capacity expansion would not only help meet the growing global demand for Pix Belts, but also results in improved efficiency while leveraging advanced manufacturing technology to achieve the company’s long term development goals.

ii) Pix Transmission adds PIX-PowerWare Pulleys to its Product Portfolio – Apr 2021

To provide a complete power transmission solution to its customers, Pix Transmission has added PIX PowerWare Pulleys to its product portfolio.
Pix Transmissions Research Report

It will help users in getting a complete power transmission solution comprising of Pulleys and Belts from the same manufacturer, thus compatibility of all components is ensured. PIX PowerWare Pulleys are made as per international standards and follow a strict manufacturing procedure in accordance with the ISO standards.

iii) Pix Transmission steps up presence in automotive segment with ‘PIX Force’ range of belts – Jan 2021

Pix Transmissions has launched belts meant especially for the automotive industry. Pix Force automotive belts have been designed to withstand the most extreme conditions encountered in automobile applications and are available for a full range of vehicle applications including two-wheelers, cars, vans, trucks, buses, heavy and light-duty vehicles, suitable for almost all engine options across different segments.

3. Financial Performance (23 May 2021)

Pix Transmission net profits rises 137.34% in the Dec 2020 quarter

Net profit of Pix Transmission rose 137.34% to Rs 18.37 crore in the quarter ended Dec 2020 as against Rs 7.74 crore during the previous quarter ended Dec 2019. Sales rose 26.77% to Rs 108.07 crore in the quarter ended Dec 2020 as against Rs 83.58 crore during the previous quarter ended Dec 2019.

Pix Transmission net profits rises 143.57% in the Sept 2020 quarter

Net profit of Pix Transmission rose 143.57% to Rs 19.51 crore in the quarter ended Sept 2020 as against Rs 8.01 crore during the previous quarter ended Sept 2019. Sales rose 34.73% to Rs 101.59 crore in the quarter ended Sept 2020 as against Rs 75.40 crore during the previous quarter ended Sept 2019.
 
Pix Transmission Quarterly Performance

4. Peer Group Comparison (23 May 2021)
Hidden Gem Pix Transmissions Peer Comparison

Note: There is no other listed player which offers similar products (rubber belts) like Pix Transmission. Hence, we did a comparison with companies dealing in natural / synthetic rubber products. This may have low relevance considering difference in nature of business.
 
5. Key Concerns & Risks (23 May 2021)

i) Rubber and Rayon are the key raw materials for manufacturing of rubber V-belts constituting a significant chunk of the total raw material purchases of the company. The prices of these commodities remain volatile depending upon demand supply situation. Pix Transmission is thus exposed to a certain extent to such fluctuation in prices.

ii) Pix Transmission operations are working capital intensive as the company derives around 50% of its revenues from the export market which entails a higher transit period and higher credit terms extended to distributors. 

6. Saral Gyan Recommendation (23 May 2021)

i) Global market size of rubber belts is around USD 4 billion with around 50% replacement market. Estimated Indian market size is around 1,500 crores of which 700 crore is replacement market. As per management, organised players have around 80% market share and 20% is unorganised. The Industrial and Agricultural market is shared by companies like Pix Transmission, Fenner and Continental which are major players in non- auto business.

ii) Pix Transmission has been consistently modernizing its plants. The company plants are largely automated, and are also backward integrated with a fully automated rubber mixing plant to ensure product consistency. The company exports its products to over 100 countries which generates nearly 50 percent of its revenue. Anticipating robust demand going forward with revival in capex cycle, management has announced capex to expand manufacturing capacity by 150% and expect to complete the capex by end of FY22.

iii) Pix Transmission specializes in Industrial & Agricultural belts. The company has the capability to manufacture belts from 10” to 10,000” offering more than 32,000 SKUs. Pix produce belts for NTPC which are 60 meters long, Pix Transmission is the only company in India to produce those belts with one power unit running on 30 of those belts. Pix Transmission has focused its effort in producing longer & heavier belts where competition from unorganized players is limited and business is more margin accretive. Also, developing more than 32,000 SKU’s involves high tooling cost. Development of tools is expensive and also consumes lot of time. Being it difficult and time consuming to develop similar product range like that of Pix Transmission, the company may face limited competition going forward.

iv) Rubber products is considered as a commodity business. However, Pix Transmission manufactures the belts which requires high degree of engineering. The company developed elastic belts for washing machines. The problem with the normal belt was related to load factor, if a washing machine is designed for 10 kg load and if one single cloth is washed, the machine will use the power for whole capacity which is not efficient. Pix Transmission solved this problem in FY18 by developing elastic belt for washing machines manufacturers. Crucial part was assimilating the technology which took two and half years to develop. Post development of elastic belt, Pix started commercial supplies to whirlpool and also added other clients later.

v) Pix Transmission has developed all its product in-house and offer world class quality products which are well accepted in developed US & European markets. There is significant scope of growth for the company in domestic market considering increase in farm mechanization and broadening of industrial capex cycle in the country going forward.

vi) As on March21, promoters shareholding in the company is 61.73% without any share being pledged. Promoters have increased their shareholding in the company from 61.12% to 61.73% over last 2 years. Foreign institutions do not hold any shares in the company and DIIs holding is negligible at 0.02%. Pix Transmission have registered sales CAGR of 8%, profit CAGR of 51% with ROE of 11% over last 5 years and looks attractive at current valuations considering increase in demand of its product with start of wider capex cycle in the country.
Pix Transmission Multibagger Financials
vii) Management is rewarding shareholders by paying consistent dividend since 2011. Company has been maintaining dividend payout between 10% to 20%. Considering company’s ongoing expansion plans, we believe 10% dividend payout is adequate. Dividend yield at current market price is 0.45%.
Pix Transmission Dividend History
viii) As per our estimates, Pix Transmission can deliver net profit of Rs. 82 crores in FY 2022-23 with annualized EPS of Rs. 60.15. At current price of 441.30, stock is available at forward P/E multiple of 7.3X based on FY22-23 earnings.

ix) On equity of Rs. 1.36 crore, the estimated annualized EPS for FY 22-23 works out to Rs. 60.15 and the Book Value per share is Rs. 192. At current market price of Rs. 441.30, stock price to book value is 2.3.

Considering expected revival in industrial capex cycle and increase in farm mechanization in the country, company’s planned capacity addition, diverse product offering with more than 32,000 SKUs, and its attractive valuation, Saral Gyan team recommends “Buy” on Pix Transmission Ltd at current price of Rs. 441.30 for target of Rs. 800 over a period of 12 to 24 months.

Buying Strategy:
  • 50% at current market price of Rs. 441.30
  • 50% at price range of Rs. 240 - 300 (in case of correction in stock price)
Portfolio Allocation: 3% of your equity portfolio

To Download Saral Gyan Hidden Gem Report of Pix Transmission - Click Here

Through Hidden Gems and Value Picks, we are providing you opportunities to invest in such small / mid cap stocks today. Infosys, Pantaloon, Dabur, Glenmark were the small cap stocks in past and today are the well known companies falling under mid and large cap space.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that are either under-researched or not covered by other brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our subscribers on our past recommendations suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future growth outlook.

Time has shown that smart investors have made their fortune by investing in equities in long term. None other asset class can match giving you such extra ordinary returns. Yes, its important for you to invest in right set of companies at right price with medium to long term perspective. If you think to invest in stocks for period of 6 months or 12 months, we suggest you to stay out of stock market because you are not investing, you are betting on volatility of stock market which could be risky.

Be a disciplined investor who keep on investing in systematic way irrespective of market conditions and not an emotional investor who usually buy stocks during bull phase when stock prices are moving higher because of greed and sell them in panic during bear phase due to severe fall in stock prices, making mistake of buying high and selling low.

We are pleased to inform you that we are celebrating this festive season by offering maximum discounts up to 30% and valuable freebies on our subscription services under Merry Christmas - Happy New Year 2023 offer. Attractive discounts & valuable freebies which make our offer special for our readers are as under:

1. Discount up to 30% on combo pack subscription (valid up to 05 Jan'23 only)
2. Portfolio of 10 Small & Mid Cap Stocks for 2023 (to be released on 1st Jan'23)
3. Special Report - 5 Hidden Gems to Buy / Accumulate (to be released in Jan 2023)
4. Special Report - 5 Value Picks to Buy / Accumulate (to be released in Feb 2023)
5. Existing Portfolio Health Check Up under Wealth-Builder subscription

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Do write to us in case of any queries, we will be delighted to assist you.

Wishing you Happy & Safe Investing!

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan.

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Check Fundamentals & Not Share Price while Buying Stocks

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We started Hidden Gems annual subscription in late 2010 followed by other services like Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days and Wealth-Builder, today we have a strong subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 8 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 157, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 3918 in January 2018, post severe correction in small and mid cap stocks over last 15 months, stock is down by -28% and is at Rs. 2809 today. Even after such a correction in stock price, Cera Sanitaryware is a 18-Bagger stock giving as on date returns of 1690% in 7 years from our initial recommendation and 525% return from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We continuously recommended Cera during last couple of years to our members at much higher levels.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Tide Water Oil share price was Rs. 1450 on 1st Jan'12 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 5800). Today the stock price is at Rs. 5051 giving absolute returns of 248% i.e. 3.5 times in 7 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. We suggested Buy on Tide Water Oil and many of our subscribers might not have invested in it thinking that they can buy hardly 2 shares by investing Rs. 12,000 but now those 2 shares are actually 8 shares post stock split and issue of bonus share and share price is near the recommended price.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like future growth prospects of the company, PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech was a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. Now it is hovering at just Rs 0.42 and trading is suspended in the stock. Those who purchased the stock during 2010 are in 99% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 is valued at merely Rs. 1,000 today, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 or Rs. 5 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 6 to 9 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 

Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Check Fundamentals & Not Share Price while Buying Stocks!

Dear Reader,

Why is a stock that cost Rs. 50 cheaper than another stock priced at Rs. 10?

This question opens a point that often confuses beginning investors: The per-share price of a stock is thought to convey some sense of value relative to other stocks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

In fact, except for its use in some calculations, the per-share price is virtually meaningless to investors doing fundamental analysis. If you follow the technical analysis route to stock selection, it’s a different story, but for now let’s stick with fundamental analysis.

The reason we aren’t concerned with per-share price is that it is always changing and, since each company has a different number of outstanding shares, it doesn’t give us a clue to the value of the company. For that number, we need the market capitalization or market cap number.

The market cap is found by multiplying the per-share price times the total number of outstanding shares. This number gives you the total value of the company or stated another way, what it would cost to buy the whole company on the open market.

Here’s an example:

Stock price: Rs. 50

Outstanding shares: 5 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 50 x 50,000,000 = Rs. 250 Crores

To prove our opening sentence, look at this second example:

Stock price: Rs. 10

Outstanding shares: 30 Crores 

Market cap: Rs. 10 x 300,000,000 = Rs. 300 Crores

This is how you should look at these two companies for evaluation purposes. Their per-share prices tell you nothing by themselves.

What does market cap tell you?

First, it gives you a starting place for evaluation. When looking a stock, it should always be in a context. How does the company compare to others of a similar size in the same industry?

The market generally classifies stocks into three categories:

• Small Cap under Rs. 1000 Crores 

• Mid Cap Rs. 1000 - Rs. 10000 Crores

• Large Cap above Rs. 10000 Crores

Some analysts use different numbers and others add micro caps and mega caps, however the important point is to understand the value of comparing companies of similar size during your evaluation. You will also use market cap in your screens when looking for a certain size company to balance your portfolio. Don’t get hung up on the per-share price of a stock when making your evaluation. It really doesn't tell you much. Focus instead on the market cap to get a picture of the company’s value in the market place.

IMP Note: This article is written to safe-guard our readers who are new to stock market, and make them understand about the actual facts. We keep on receiving mails from our readers regarding the price range of stocks we covers under our Hidden Gems or Value Picks service. The misconception in mind of new investors is regarding the stock price, majority of them believe that if stock price is less, like below Rs. 50 or even below Rs. 10, changes of stock price appreciation is very high and they can buy more no. of shares rather than buying a limited no. of shares of high priced stock. 

We started Hidden Gems annual subscription in late 2010 followed by other services like Value Picks, 15% @ 90 Days and Wealth-Builder, today we have a strong subscriber base covering almost all major states in India and from 20 other countries across globe. During the last 6 years we have interacted with several investors seeking multibagger return from stocks. 

It was 17th Dec 2011, we recommended Cera Sanitaryware as Hidden Gem stock of the month at price of Rs 167, later it went up to Rs. 450 in period of 15 months. Based on strong quarterly numbers, attractive valuations and consistent performance, we recommended buy again in the range of 400-450 which was taken as a surprise by our members as we received several queries and feedback.

Below are some of the common queries of our subscribers which often lead them to opportunity losses.

1. How come a stock priced at Rs 450 can generate Multibagger returns?
2. Cera is almost 3 times moving from 170 to 450, why are you suggesting buy again?
3. Where is the room to generate Multibagger return from this level?
4. I don’t like such high-priced stock, please give me stocks priced below Rs. 100.
5. I want to buy more no. of shares, hence please recommend low price stocks below Rs. 10.

Cera Sanitaryware touched its life time high of Rs 3315 on NSE recently and closed at Rs. 3060.35 today, stock has given as on date returns of 1732% in 5 years from our initial recommendation and 580% return from our reiterated buy at Rs. 450, which was not liked by our subscribers.

The story does not end here, there is a long way to go. Our suggested stocks is with a view-point of 1-3 years at least and not just 6-9 months. If fundamentals of the company are intact, we would not suggest our members to do profit booking or exit. Investors who stayed away just because of high price simply missed yet another opportunity. We continuously recommended Cera during last year to our members at much higher levels.

There is a general misconception among the investors that high priced stocks can't generate multibagger returns. They often think that high-priced stocks are overvalued. In terms of valuation, a 50 rupees stock may not be cheaper than that of a 1000 rupees stock. There is no co-relation between the valuation and market price of a stock. To understand whether a company is small or large, you must look at market capital of the company and not at stock price. To judge valuation you must have to look at Price to earning ratio, Price to book ratio, Price to sales ratio etc.

Lets try to understand this with an example, Tide Water Oil share price was Rs. 1450 on 1st Jan'12 (stock split and bonus issue adjusted price, actual price was 5800). Today the stock price closed at Rs. 6015 giving absolute returns of 315% i.e. more than 4 times within 5 years against double digit return of Sensex in the same period. We suggested Buy on Tide Water Oil and many of our subscribers might not have invested in it thinking that they can buy hardly 2 shares by investing Rs. 12,000 but now those 2 shares are actually 8 shares post stock split and issue of bonus share and share price is also near to the the recommended price.

There are many examples like above by which we can illustrate that there’s nothing called high price. Multibagger returns is not dependent on the current market price of a stock, so don't be afraid of investing in high priced stock. You need to look at fundamentals like PE ratio, PB ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt on books, cash reserves along with other parameters to judge a stock whether it is undervalued or overvalued. We agree with you that judging valuation is not an easy task. So, take expert’s advise when ever required.

Another misconception among investors is to buy more no. of shares. They often think that its better to buy more no. of shares of a low price scrip (ranging below Rs. 10 or say below Rs. 50) instead of buying less no. of shares of high priced stocks. They often think that low price stocks can generate multibagger return quickly. During last 5 years, we have reviewed existing portfolio of our members under our Wealth-Builder (an offline portfolio management service) subscription, we have noticed that many of their portfolio is filled with such low-priced stocks and most of those are in great loss because of poor fundamentals. You may think that a two rupees stock can easily generate multibagger returns even if it touch to Rs. 5 or 6. At the same time don’t forget that the same can even come down to Rs. 0 levels which can evaporate all your investment giving you 100% loss! In terms of valuation a two thousand rupees stock may not be expensive than that of a two rupees stock.

Lets try to understand this also with a simple example, Lanco Infratech is a well-known company from Infrastructure sector. At the beginning of 2010 the stock was around Rs 55. Today it is hovering at just Rs 3.50. Those who purchased that stock during 2010 are in 94% loss! Rs. 1 lakh invested in Lanco Infratech in Jan 2010 is valued at merely Rs. 6,000 today, a complete wealth-destroyer! Isn't it? Those who bought this stock at levels of Rs. 30 and later again at Rs. 10 to average out thinking that stock has came down from all time highs of Rs. 85 are still waiting to get their buying price back. There are many such stocks like Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra, GVK Power and Infrastructure etc which have continuously destroyed wealth of investors over a period of last 5 to 7 years.

We do not state that all low price stocks are wealth-destroyers, it all depends on the fundamentals of the company. So, do ensure that you check out the fundamentals and valuations while investing in stocks instead of looking at stock price. Please get out of the misconception that low priced stocks will fly high faster giving you extra-ordinary returns. Always remember that stock price is just a barometer, actual valuations of a company can be determined by its fundamentals.

If you wish to invest in fundamentally strong small and mid cap companies which can give you far superior returns compared to major indices like Sensex or Nifty in long term and help you creating wealth, you can join our services like Hidden GemsValue Picks & Wealth-Builder.

The stocks we reveal through Hidden Gems & Value Picks are companies that either under-researched or not covered by other stock brokers and research firms. We keep on updating our members on our past recommendation suggesting them whether to hold / buy or sell stocks on the basis of company's performance and future outlook.

Wish you happy & safe Investing. 



Regards, 
Team - Saral Gyan

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Evaluating & Picking Winning Stocks for Investment

It is very important to evaluate company using vital parameters before finalizing it as an investment candidate. Many investors who are new to stock markets simply look at share price, its 52 week high & low and put their hard earned money in equities to work. And as we all know, most of the times this approach never works.

We always suggest our readers to a proper & thorough research before taking any exposure in riskier asset like equities. Below are the 9 important parameters which are broadly used as tools for doing fundamental analysis of a company. Using these key parameters, Investors can pick winning stocks for their portfolio to get rewarded in long term.

1. Company’s History & Promoter's Credentials

This is one of the most important factor when one is looking to buy stock in an unknown company. It is best to look up the accounts for a couple of prior years and also read up the directors’ report. One should also do a Google search on the company and its promoters to see if they have ever been involved in shady or dubious deals.

2. Cash Flow

Cash flow is the amount of money coming in or going out of the business in a given period of time, say, one financial year. It helps to determine how much liquidity the company has. If a company is “cash flow positive”, it means that it is generating more cash from the business than it is paying out. This is a positive sign because it means the company has bargaining power. It is selling to its customers and receiving payment early while it is buying from the suppliers and paying them late.

If a company is “cash flow negative”, it is a dangerous sign because it means that the company has no liquidity and is desperately dependent on its suppliers and creditors. They can hold the company to ransom by choking its credit limits.

3. EBITDA 

EBITDA stands for “Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization”. EBITDA tells the investor, the profit that the company is making from its operations. If the EBITDA is negative, then it is a very negative sign because it means that the company is losing money in its core profitability.

The EBITDA margin is computed as a percentage of sales and EBITDA. For instance, in a company had sales of Rs. 100 and an EBITDA of Rs. 12, its EBITDA margin would be 12%. The higher the margin, the better it is.

Example: Hawkins Cookers’ EBITDA in the year ended 31.3.2012 was Rs. 49.61 crores. Its sales were Rs. 383.72 crores and so the EBITDA to Sales margin was 12.92%.

4. EPS (Earning Per Share)

EPS (Earning Per Share) = Net Profit / Number of Outstanding Shares

There are variants such as the “Diluted EPS” which means that even the shares that will be issued in the future pursuant to outstanding warrants or bonds are also considered.

Example: Hawkins Cookers’ net profit for the year ended 31.3.2012 was Rs. 30.08 crores. The number of equity shares were 56.88 lakhs and so the EPS is Rs. 56.83.

“Cash EPS” is worked out by taking the operating cash profits (without reducing non-cash expenditure such as depreciation).

5. P/E Ratio

The Price-Earnings (PE) Ratio is a valuation ratio of the company’s current share price compared to its earnings per share (EPS). In other words, how of a multiple of the EPS is one paying to buy the stock.

This criteria helps to identify, how cheap or expensive a stock is compared to its peers. It is calculated with the formula: 

Market Value per Share / Earnings Per Share (EPS)

For example, if the stock is available at Rs. 20 each and the EPS is Rs.5, the PE ratio is 20/5 = 4.

The PE is usually calculated on the EPS of the previous 12 months (the “trailing twelve months” (“TTM”).

The PE ratio can be used to benchmark companies within the same Industry or sector. For example, if one is comparing two PSU banks, if one has a PE of 5 and the other has a PE of 8, the question is why one is paying a premium for the second one and whether there is a valuation aberration somewhere that an investor can take advantage of.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s EPS in the year ended 31.3.2012 was Rs. 56.85 (as calculated above). The market price per share is Rs. 1,687 and so the PE ratio is 29.66.

6. Return on Equity (ROE)

ROE or Return on Equity indicates how efficiently the management is able to get a return from the shareholders’ equity. ROE is calculated with the following formula:

Net Income / Shareholders’ Equity

Example: Suppose a company earned Rs. 1,000 in profit and the total equity capital is Rs. Rs. 2000. The ROE is 1000/2000 = 50%.

Suppose another company in the same sector/ industry earned a ROE of 30%. You know which company is a more efficient utilizer of capital.

A variation of the same concept is the Return on Net Worth of RONW in which we take in not only the equity capital but also the retained earnings (reserves).

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s Net Worth (equity + reserves) as of 31.3.2012 was Rs. 51.59 crores while its net profit was Rs. 30.08 crores. The Return on Net Worth is 58%.

7. Debt Equity Ratio

Debt Equity Ratio is the proportion of debt to equity used to run the company’s operations. It is calculated with the following formula:

Total liabilities / equity share capital + reserves

When examining the health of your business, it's critical to take a long, hard look at company's debt-to-equity ratio. If Debt Equity ratios are increasing, meaning there's more debt in relation to equity, Company is being financed by creditors rather than by internal positive cash flow, which may be a dangerous trend.

The debt/equity ratio also depends on the industry in which the company operates. For example, capital-intensive industries such as capital goods, auto manufacturing tend to have a debt/equity ratio above 2, while IT companies / Consumer Goods companies with high brand equity have a debt/equity of under 0.5.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s equity + reserves as of 31.3.2012 was Rs. 51.59 crores while its debt was Rs. 12.20 crores. The debt equity ratio is 0.24.

8. Market Capitalisation

It is the value for the entire company can be bought on the stock market. It is derived by multiplying the total number of equity shares by the market price of each share.

This helps to determine whether the stock is undervalued or not. For instance, if a stock with a consistent profit of Rs. 100 is available at a market cap of Rs. 200 is undervalued in comparison to another stock with a similar profit but with a market cap of Rs. 500.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s has issued 52.90 lakh shares. The price per share is Rs. 1,819 and so the market cap of the company is Rs. 962 crores. This means, theoretically, that if you had Rs. 962 crores, you could buy all the shares of Hawkins Cooker.

9. Dividend Yield

‘Dividend Yield’ is a financial ratio that shows how much the company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price. It is calculated by the following formula:

Interim + Annual Dividends in the year/Price per share x 100

If you find that company is paying consistent dividend year after year with dividend yield of above 7%, you can think to invest in such stocks instead of blocking your money in fixed deposits. Here, you can think of some appreciation in stock price along with 7% returns on yearly basis through dividend payment. 

Example: Oil India declared a dividend of 475% (Rs. 47.50 per share). Because its market price is Rs. 489, the dividend yield is 47.50/489×100 = 9.7%.

Saturday, June 30, 2012

Look at High Debt while Evaluating Stocks


Should you invest in companies that carry large amounts of debt? That is a question every investor should ask when evaluating stocks.

Unfortunately, the answer isn’t as easy as “yes or no.” The correct answer is “it depends.” The problem is that some industries typically require more debt than others do.

For these industries, a higher debt load is normal. For example, utilities often borrow large sums of money when building new power plants. It may take several years to build the plant, which means no revenue and lots of debt.

Cash Cow

However, the useful life of power plants spans many years and when the debt on the plant is repaid the facility can become a real cash cow for the utility.

For other industries, a large debt load may signal something seriously wrong. Of course, any company might pickup a big note if it just bought a building or a competitor.

There are several tools you can use to determine whether a company is exposing itself to too much debt.

The first is the Debt to Equity Ratio. This ratio tells you what portion of debt and equity is used to finance a company’s assets.

Formula

The formula is: Total Liabilities / Shareholder Equity = Debt to Equity Ratio.

A ratio of 1 or more indicates the company is using more debt than equity to finance assets. A high number (when compared to peers in the same industry) may mean the company is at risk in a market where interest rates are on the rise.

If a company has debt, it has interest expenses. There is a metric called Interest Coverage that will give you a good idea if a company is having trouble paying the interest charges on its debt.

The formula is: EBITDA / Interest Expense = Interest Coverage.

EBITDA is Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization and measures the operating performance of a company before accounting conventions and non-operational charges (such as taxes and interest).

Ratio

The resulting ratio tells you whether a company is having trouble producing enough cash to meet its interest expense. A ratio of 1.5 or higher is where companies want to be. A lower ratio may indicate that the company has trouble covering interest expenses as well as other costs.

Debt is not a bad thing when used responsibly. It can help businesses grow and expand. However, misuse of debt can result in a burden that drags down a company’s earnings.