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Monday, April 20, 2015

3 Common Mistakes an Equity Investor Makes

3 Stock Investing Mistakes & How you can Avoid them?

Mistake 1 – Not investing in stocks when market is down and quoting below long term average valuations.

This is a life-changing mistake though many do not realize. If an investor makes this first mistake, he/she is more likely to make the other two mistakes, no matter how much does one try to keep away from stocks.

In order to fulfill one’s basic needs and lead a healthy and wealthy life, an investor should invest his savings at lows and sell at highs and thus accumulate decent corpus over a period of time.

In the above case, investors make a mistake of extrapolating the short term downtrend and thus fall in the trap of believing that markets will fall indefinitely.

With the above psychology investors defer their investments, assuming they will get to know when the market will bottom out and start investing then.

End result - Investors get to know about market bottoms only in hindsight and thus miss out investing at market lows.

Mistake 2 – Not investing in stocks when market rebounds from lows and quoting at long term average valuations

This is another major mistake made by investors in their attempt to act smart. After missing out investing at very low market valuations (Investing mistake 1) in their attempt to time markets, investors miss out investing at very low valuations.

Later on, to their utter surprise they find markets already up 30-50% from the lows and individual stocks up by 50-100% in many cases, though still quoting at reasonable valuations.

At this point of time, the feeling of being left out starts creeping in and in order to avoid looking foolish, investors make a promise to themselves that they will invest in stocks in case the market retracts back to lows they witnessed some time back.

End result – Markets usually do not correct back to previous lows, though consolidate or correct marginally and thus an investor again misses out on buying stocks on reasonable valuations.

Mistake 3 – Investing in stocks when markets are at really high valuations with every Ram, Shyam & Ghanshyam discussing stocks

Not investing in stocks when market is at low or reasonable valuations, exposes one to opportunity cost and negative real returns (7-8% FD return against 8-9% inflation) in most of the other asset classes.

However, the biggest mistake an investor makes and which brings about absolute capital loss is when an investor takes a plunge into markets at really high valuations.

After missing out investing in the above two instances, 4-5 years down the line when markets have appreciated enormously, it catches the fancy of every investor on the street. By that time, stocks of good companies have usually appreciated by 5-10 times and even more.

The realization that they missed the bus hits them hard.

By then, the news flow is so good and the economy seems so resilient that investors convince themselves of the infallibility of the economy and the markets. Yes, in order to justify to themselves and cover up their foolishness of buying the stocks at high valuations and missing out when the valuations were low, they support their decision with positives about the economy.

Here again investors make a mistake of extrapolating the uptrend and thus fall in the trap of believing that markets will rise indefinitely.

With the above psychology, they invest in stocks at very high valuations, assuming they will be able to predict and exit at market peak.

End result - Investors get to know about market peak only in hindsight. Also, as per the famous adage, “Market goes up by stairs and comes down by lift”, investors witness value erosion on their respective investments and generate sub-standard returns on their investments for the next 3-4 years.

Since majority of the investors commit the above 3 mistakes, equities get a bad name, though we leave it to you to decide who is at fault.

If you have read this far, you may have already realized that by not buying stocks of good companies that are available at low valuations, you are committing Mistake 1 and thus very likely to commit Mistake 2 and Mistake 3 in the subsequent years. Simply speaking, it would be a loss of 5-7 good years for letting your wealth grow several folds and capital loss if you commit Mistake 3 at the end.

When it comes to investing in stocks, no one is perfect, including the Great Warren Buffett and everyone learns with experience, however one can always accelerate the process by learning from other’s experiences and mistakes. It’s great to learn from your mistakes, but it’s even better when you can learn from the mistakes of others.

Regards,

Team - Saral Gyan.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Saral Gyan's 89 Pages eBook - How to Grow your Savings?

A complete guide to help you ensure, you get the best returns on your investments from equities.

This e-book will provide you important & relevant information supported by facts & figures to help you grow your savings by investing in stocks to succeed:

Key Mantra’s:

1. Adopt discipline approach for Savings
2. Find out the ways to get passive income
3. Set your financial goals & start Investing
4. Do invest in equities for long term

Getting the most out of this book is simple, “How to Grow your Savings?” requires practical approach. Execute your learning experience in your day to day life by managing your finances effectively and achieve your long term goals.

Traditionally, Indians are Savers. The savings rate is as high as 30 percent. If not a direct savings in the bank, the money goes into a fixed deposit, gold or real estate. That trend might change soon if more people invest in stocks, which have outperformed every other asset class from 2001 to 2007.

Stocks have outperformed other asset classes by as much as 60 percent, yet only 3 percent of Indian population directly invests in stocks.

The main reasons for this is a lack of knowledge, awareness as well as unethical practices by a small minority of participants who encourage regular churning based on tips and rumours without giving proper financial planning to investors.

If someone invested in a Bank of India fixed deposit account in 2001, he or she would have an 8 percent return per year. If the same person invested in Bank of India stock he or she would have a total return of 4,800 percent as the stock rose from 12 rupees to all time high of 588 rupees in 2010.

Though Indians continue to be underinvested in the stock market there is more interest coming in from all corners. 200,000 new demat accounts are opened every month. Recent transparency measures should also bring more people in. The stock market will no longer be treated as a gamble but will be put on par with real estate and gold.

The irony is that even though stock markets as a long term asset class have given the highest returns, short term trading in futures and options has also caused the maximum losses. The maximum numbers of bankruptcies were caused due to the stock market crash in 2008-2009 amongst high risk speculative traders.

Power of Investing in Equity Market

Now, Just Imagine...

How much can you make in 30 years by just investing Rs.10,000 initially in any of financial instruments?

Take a wild guess?

Let us look at the real example.

If you have subscribed for 100 shares of "X" company with a face value of Rs. 100 in 1980.

• In 1981 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 200 shares
• In 1985 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 400 shares
• In 1986 company split the share to Rs. 10 = you have 4,000 shares
• In 1987 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 8,000 shares
• In 1989 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 16,000 shares
• In 1992 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 32,000 shares
• In 1995 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 64,000 shares
• In 1997 company declared 1:2 bonus = you have 1,92,000 shares
• In 1999 company split the share to Rs. 2 = you have 9,60,000 shares
• In 2004 company declared 1:2 bonus = you have 28,80,000 shares
• In 2005 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 57,60,000 shares
• In 2010 company declared 3:2 bonus = you have 96,00,000 shares

In 2010, you have whopping 9.6 million shares of the company.

Any guess about the company?

(Hint: It’s an Indian IT Company)

Any guess about the present valuation of Rs. 10,000 invested in 1980?

The company which has made fortune of millions is "WIPRO" with present valuation of 450+ crores (excluding dividend payments) for Rs. 10,000 invested in 1980.

Unbelievable, isn’t it? But it’s a Fact! Investing in companies with good fundamentals and proven track record can give far superior returns compared to any other asset class (real estate, precious metals, bonds etc) in a long run.

Will Wipro provide similar returns in next 30 years? Probably not, it’s already an IT giant.

You need to explore companies in small and mid cap space with good track record and stay invested to create wealth in a long term.

It is a garden out there and one need to simply provide sufficient time to grow his quality seeds to get the fruits. One has to know what he is doing and has to be cognizant about it. With a little research and patience stock market investments can yield maximum returns.

So, how will you grow your savings? What are you investing in?

Read complete e-book "How to Grow your Savings?", its not only for beginners but also is a must read for experienced investors. "How to Grow your Savings" will definitely help you to get an edge over others by understanding the basic of investments and importance of equities in a long run to generate income and create wealth. 

Below are the chapters covered in "How to grow your Savings?"


PART I: VALUE OF MONEY 
  • Inflation
  • Past & Future Value of Money
PART II: INCOME, EXPENDITURES & SAVINGS 
  • Income Expenditure Ratio 
  • Passive Income 
  • Tips & Tricks to Save Money 
  • Saving Strategies
PART III: SAVING & INVESTING 
  • Difference between Saving & Investing
  • Understanding Your Assets
  • Investing in Different Asset class
  • Pay Off Your Debt or Invest
  • Power of Compounding 
  • Benefits of Long Term Investing
  • 10 Key Investing Mantra’s
PART IV: FINANCIAL PLANNING 
  • Financial Planning 
  • Managing your Finances 
  • Making your own Investment Plan 
  • Your Investment Profile & Risk Tolerance
PART V: BUILDING AN EQUITY PORTFOLIO 
  • Investing in Equities
  • Investing in Bull & Bear Market
  • Invest in Individual Stock or Mutual Fund
  • Creating a Stock Portfolio
  • Investment Portfolio Mistakes to Avoid
  • Importance of Stock Diversification
  • Investing for Growth, Yield & Income
  • Facts & Benefits of Investing in Small Companies
PART VI: EQUITIES & RISKS 
  • Investing Risks Vs Rewards
  • Understanding Stock Market Risks
  • Different Type of Investing Risks
  • Managing Investment Risks
  • The Bulls, The Bears & The Farm
PART VII: EQUITIES & THE TIME FACTOR 
  • Stock Investing & The Age Factor
  • Don’t Count on Stocks for Short Term Goals
  • Characteristics of Successful Investors
  • Don’t try to Time Bottom of Stock Market
  • Investing in Stocks for Regular Income & Long Term Growth
  • Investing Checklist – 10 Most Important Element
Saral Gyan's 88 pages e-book is priced at Rs. 599 only. Wait! You can grab it for free by subscribing to one of our most admired service - Hidden Gems. Click here to view the Past Performance of Hidden Gems, Value Picks & Wealth-Builder.

In case of any queries, do not hesitate to write to us at info@saralgyan.in & sales@saralgyan.in

Kind Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

How to Pick Winning Stocks for Investment?

It is very important to evaluate company using vital parameters before finalizing it as an investment candidate. Many investors who are new to stock markets simply look at share price, its 52 week high & low and put their hard earned money in equities to work. And as we all know, most of the times this approach never works.

We always suggest our readers to a proper & thorough research before taking any exposure in riskier asset like equities. Below are the 9 important parameters which are broadly used as tools for doing fundamental analysis of a company. Using these key parameters, Investors can pick winning stocks for their portfolio to get rewarded in long term.

1. Company’s History & Promoter's Credentials

This is one of the most important factor when one is looking to buy stock in an unknown company. It is best to look up the accounts for a couple of prior years and also read up the directors’ report. One should also do a Google search on the company and its promoters to see if they have ever been involved in shady or dubious deals.

2. Cash Flow

Cash flow is the amount of money coming in or going out of the business in a given period of time, say, one financial year. It helps to determine how much liquidity the company has. If a company is “cash flow positive”, it means that it is generating more cash from the business than it is paying out. This is a positive sign because it means the company has bargaining power. It is selling to its customers and receiving payment early while it is buying from the suppliers and paying them late.

If a company is “cash flow negative”, it is a dangerous sign because it means that the company has no liquidity and is desperately dependent on its suppliers and creditors. They can hold the company to ransom by choking its credit limits.

3. EBITDA 

EBITDA stands for “Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization”. EBITDA tells the investor, the profit that the company is making from its operations. If the EBITDA is negative, then it is a very negative sign because it means that the company is losing money in its core profitability.

The EBITDA margin is computed as a percentage of sales and EBITDA. For instance, in a company had sales of Rs. 100 and an EBITDA of Rs. 12, its EBITDA margin would be 12%. The higher the margin, the better it is.

Example: Hawkins Cookers’ EBITDA in the year ended 31.3.2013 was Rs. 55.49 crores. Its sales were Rs. 446.82 crores and so the EBITDA to Sales margin was 12.42%.

4. EPS (Earning Per Share)

EPS (Earning Per Share) = Net Profit / Number of Outstanding Shares

There are variants such as the “Diluted EPS” which means that even the shares that will be issued in the future pursuant to outstanding warrants or bonds are also considered.

Example: Hawkins Cookers’ net profit for the year ended 31.3.2013 was Rs. 34.10 crores. The number of equity shares were 52.88 lakhs and so the EPS is Rs. 64.49.

“Cash EPS” is worked out by taking the operating cash profits (without reducing non-cash expenditure such as depreciation).

5. P/E Ratio

The Price-Earnings (PE) Ratio is a valuation ratio of the company’s current share price compared to its earnings per share (EPS). In other words, how of a multiple of the EPS is one paying to buy the stock.

This criteria helps to identify, how cheap or expensive a stock is compared to its peers. It is calculated with the formula: 

Market Value per Share / Earnings Per Share (EPS)

For example, if the stock is available at Rs. 20 each and the EPS is Rs.5, the PE ratio is 20/5 = 4.

The PE is usually calculated on the EPS of the previous 12 months (the “trailing twelve months” (“TTM”).

The PE ratio can be used to benchmark companies within the same Industry or sector. For example, if one is comparing two PSU banks, if one has a PE of 5 and the other has a PE of 8, the question is why one is paying a premium for the second one and whether there is a valuation aberration somewhere that an investor can take advantage of.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s EPS in the year ended 31.3.2013 was Rs. 64.49 (as calculated above). The market price per share is Rs. 2,016 and so the PE ratio is 31.26.

6. Return on Equity (ROE)

ROE or Return on Equity indicates how efficiently the management is able to get a return from the shareholders’ equity. ROE is calculated with the following formula:

Net Income / Shareholders’ Equity

Example: Suppose a company earned Rs. 1,000 in profit and the total equity capital is Rs. Rs. 2000. The ROE is 1000/2000 = 50%.

Suppose another company in the same sector/ industry earned a ROE of 30%. You know which company is a more efficient utilizer of capital.

A variation of the same concept is the Return on Net Worth of RONW in which we take in not only the equity capital but also the retained earnings (reserves).

7. Debt Equity Ratio

Debt Equity Ratio is the proportion of debt to equity used to run the company’s operations. It is calculated with the following formula:

Total liabilities / equity share capital + reserves

When examining the health of your business, it's critical to take a long, hard look at company's debt-to-equity ratio. If Debt Equity ratios are increasing, meaning there's more debt in relation to equity, Company is being financed by creditors rather than by internal positive cash flow, which may be a dangerous trend.

The debt/equity ratio also depends on the industry in which the company operates. For example, capital-intensive industries such as capital goods, auto manufacturing tend to have a debt/equity ratio above 2, while IT companies / Consumer Goods companies with high brand equity have a debt/equity of under 0.5.

8. Market Capitalisation

It is the value for the entire company can be bought on the stock market. It is derived by multiplying the total number of equity shares by the market price of each share.

This helps to determine whether the stock is undervalued or not. For instance, if a stock with a consistent profit of Rs. 100 is available at a market cap of Rs. 200 is undervalued in comparison to another stock with a similar profit but with a market cap of Rs. 500.

Example: Hawkins Cooker’s has issued 52.88 lakh shares. The price per share is Rs. 2,016 and so the market cap of the company is Rs. 1066 crores. This means, theoretically, that if you had Rs. 1066 crores, you could buy all the shares of Hawkins Cooker.

9. Dividend Yield

‘Dividend Yield’ is a financial ratio that shows how much the company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price. It is calculated by the following formula:

Interim + Annual Dividends in the year/Price per share x 100

If you find that company is paying consistent dividend year after year with dividend yield of above 7%, you can think to invest in such stocks instead of blocking your money in fixed deposits. Here, you can think of some appreciation in stock price along with 7% returns on yearly basis through dividend payment. 

Example: Hawkins declared a dividend of 500% (Rs. 50 per share). Because its market price is Rs. 2016, the dividend yield is 50/2016×100 = 2.48%.

Hawkins have given more than 100 times returns to investors in last 10 years. Rs 1 lakh invested in Hawkins on 24th July 2003 is worth more than Rs. 1 Crores today, that too excluding dividends received by Investors. Hawkins share price was Rs. 19.80 on 24th July 2003 and today after completing 10 years, Hawkins share price is at Rs. 2016 giving astonishing returns of 10057% to investors.

Also Read: How to Value a Stock - Cheap or Expensive?

Do write to us in case of any queries.

Regards,
Team - Saral Gyan. 

Saturday, December 14, 2013

3 Common Mistakes An Equity Investor Makes

3 Stock Investing Mistakes & How you can Avoid them?

Mistake 1 – Not investing in stocks when market is down and quoting below long term average valuations.

This is a life-changing mistake though many do not realize. If an investor makes this first mistake, he/she is more likely to make the other two mistakes, no matter how much does one try to keep away from stocks.

In order to fulfill one’s basic needs and lead a healthy and wealthy life, an investor should invest his savings at lows and sell at highs and thus accumulate decent corpus over a period of time.

In the above case, investors make a mistake of extrapolating the short term downtrend and thus fall in the trap of believing that markets will fall indefinitely.

With the above psychology investors defer their investments, assuming they will get to know when the market will bottom out and start investing then.

End result - Investors get to know about market bottoms only in hindsight and thus miss out investing at market lows.

Mistake 2 – Not investing in stocks when market rebounds from lows and quoting at long term average valuations

This is another major mistake made by investors in their attempt to act smart. After missing out investing at very low market valuations (Investing mistake 1) in their attempt to time markets, investors miss out investing at very low valuations.

Later on, to their utter surprise they find markets already up 30-50% from the lows and individual stocks up by 50-100% in many cases, though still quoting at reasonable valuations.

At this point of time, the feeling of being left out starts creeping in and in order to avoid looking foolish, investors make a promise to themselves that they will invest in stocks in case the market retracts back to lows they witnessed some time back.

End result – Markets usually do not correct back to previous lows, though consolidate or correct marginally and thus an investor again misses out on buying stocks on reasonable valuations.

Mistake 3 – Investing in stocks when markets are at really high valuations with every Ram, Shyam & Ghanshyam discussing stocks

Not investing in stocks when market is at low or reasonable valuations, exposes one to opportunity cost and negative real returns (7-8% FD return against 8-9% inflation) in most of the other asset classes.

However, the biggest mistake an investor makes and which brings about absolute capital loss is when an investor takes a plunge into markets at really high valuations.

After missing out investing in the above two instances, 4-5 years down the line when markets have appreciated enormously, it catches the fancy of every investor on the street. By that time, stocks of good companies have usually appreciated by 5-10 times and even more.

The realization that they missed the bus hits them hard.

By then, the news flow is so good and the economy seems so resilient that investors convince themselves of the infallibility of the economy and the markets. Yes, in order to justify to themselves and cover up their foolishness of buying the stocks at high valuations and missing out when the valuations were low, they support their decision with positives about the economy.

Here again investors make a mistake of extrapolating the uptrend and thus fall in the trap of believing that markets will rise indefinitely.

With the above psychology, they invest in stocks at very high valuations, assuming they will be able to predict and exit at market peak.

End result - Investors get to know about market peak only in hindsight. Also, as per the famous adage, “Market goes up by stairs and comes down by lift”, investors witness value erosion on their respective investments and generate sub-standard returns on their investments for the next 3-4 years.

Since majority of the investors commit the above 3 mistakes, equities get a bad name, though we leave it to you to decide who is at fault.

If you have read this far, you may have already realized that by not buying stocks of good companies that are available at low valuations, you are committing Mistake 1 and thus very likely to commit Mistake 2 and Mistake 3 in the subsequent years. Simply speaking, it would be a loss of 5-7 good years for letting your wealth grow several folds and capital loss if you commit Mistake 3 at the end.

When it comes to investing in stocks, no one is perfect, including the Great Warren Buffett and everyone learns with experience, however one can always accelerate the process by learning from other’s experiences and mistakes. It’s great to learn from your mistakes, but it’s even better when you can learn from the mistakes of others.

Also Read: Common Mistakes Mutual Fund Investors Make

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Know Your Investment Profile & Risk Tolerance

By answering 15 questions about your risk preferences, you can find out your investment profile and risk tolerance. This score will determine the asset allocation that best suits your risk preferences, you can use our simple excel workbook - Saral Gyan Asset Allocation Questionnaire which suggests the optimum split between cash, bonds and stocks.

The questions are simple to answer, with options provided to select answers using drop-down list, check boxes and radio buttons. They are designed to determine your tolerance to investment volatility, the size of your existing financial cushion, your time horizon, and what you want your investment to achieve.


Saral Gyan Investment Risk Profile & Asset Allocation workbook - Download

The questions asked in the excel workbook includes:

1.What is your total annual income before tax (including investment dividends but not including employment bonuses)?
2.How many sources of income do you have?
3.What is the value of your liquid (or investable assets)? This includes cash plus any easily sold investments like Gold, Bonds and Stocks.
4.What yearly income do you want from this investment portfolio?
5.How long do you intend to hold this investment portfolio?
6.What would you do if your investment portfolio fell in value by one-fifth (20%) over the course of 12 months?
7.What characteristics would you prefer your investments to have?
8.Do you prefer investments which have low volatility and low return, or investments which have high volatility and high returns?
9.What do you want this investment portfolio to do? Preserve capital, generate income, generate income with some capital appreciation etc.
10.What volatility (or risk) are you prepared to tolerate?
11.In the next five years, what percentage (if any) of the portfolio do you plant to sell to realize cash?
12.What kind of investments do you currently own, or would prefer to own? Domestic, international, aggressive, fixed income etc.
13.Assuming a time horizon of ten years, what annual return do you want?
14.Who do you normally get investment advice from?
15.How would you rate your current skill in managing investments?

Your answer to each question is rated with a score. The total score is used to suggest an asset allocation that is appropriate to your risk preferences; the workbook suggests a split between:

■ Cash
■ Bonds (high-yield, long-term, intermediate and international)
■ Stocks (large cap, mid cap, small cap and micro cap stocks)

You can also find out what kind of investor you’re considered; an income investor, a long term investor, an aggressive, moderate or conservative investor. Really helpful, do it yourself. Click here to Download our Investment profile and Asset Allocation workbook.