Stock prices were on rise till Mar'15 and we have seen significant increase in retail investors participation compared to previous years. As many new investors get into stock market during such times, its always important for an individual investor to understand what is his/her investment profile and risk tolerance.
During last 2 months, with lot of pessimism building around equity market globally, we have seen a healthy correction in Indian equities with major indices - Sensex and Nifty falling by more than 15% from all times high made in March this year. If we look into broader markets, stock prices of many mid and small cap companies have seen a steep fall in the range of 30% to 50% or even more from highs made in beginning of this year. In such situation every investor looking to create wealth is confused whether to exit, hold or enter the stocks and at what levels to enter or exit.
Being an equity investor, its important to understand what exactly has caused recent fall in Indian equity market. Below are the major factors which hurt the sentiments of equity market in recent times.
i) Slowdown in China Economy - China, world's one of the fastest growing and 2nd biggest economy has shown signs of slowdown. There was a panic because of China's poor manufacturing growth as confirmed by data release in last week of August which caused a major sell off from domestic and global investors. 8% crack in Chinese Shanghai Composite created a compounding effect on all the stock markets of the world resulting in major sell-off in markets in US, Europe and India.
ii) Weakness in Indian Currently - Indian currency is trading in the range of 65-67 against the US Dollar amid month-end demand for the US currency from importers and banks. There are cues from the US Fed that the recovery in US economy is not very far and the Dow Jones will be on an upward trajectory very soon. This caused a major concern with investors and spooked the Dollar to INR ratio. Hence the falling rupee acted as fuel in hurting market sentiments igniting single day crash of 1624 points in Sensex on 24th August.
iii) Continuous Selling by FIIs - Since 1st Aug'15, foreign investors have sold shares to the tune of Rs. 29,400 crore. With weak manufacturing data, Chinese equity market caused a concern for global investors in terms of sustained GDP growth which led to sell off in emerging markets. Investors who were sitting with hefty profits and invested in Indian stocks during last 18 months also started selling to book profits against falling rupee. Moreover, signs of recovery in the US economy has also resulted in funds travelling from Asian markets back to the US markets.
iv) Delay in Reforms - There was lot of expectation from Modi led NDA government with major announcement made to bring reforms by passing two major reform bills - the goods and service tax (GST) and the Land Acquisition Bill. Given the build-up of political opposition to his government, there was more than a fair chance that two major reform bills will not pass in the remaining months of 2015, and certainly not during the monsoon session of parliament which further impacted Investors sentiments in terms of future growth outlook of Indian economy.
v) Weak Corporate Earnings - For any stock market to deliver good returns, it is very important for the earnings of the companies to match its valuations. But in last 18 months, the valuations of India Inc has sky rocketed but the earnings were not seen at par. This was the major concern of the investors and thus started profit-booking in last 2-3 months.
We always suggest our members not to time the market and follow a disciplinary approach while investing in equities with medium to long term perspective. Its important to know, whether you would be able to hold on your positions in case stock market tanks?
Historical data indicates that most of the new investors get fascinated towards stock market to make quick bucks and finally end up loosing their capital as they cant hold on their stocks in case market corrects and sell out their stocks in a panic. Stock market is not a money making machine, you need not to be greedy on rising market or fearful when stock market falls, simply buy right and sit tight having sufficient patience with you to see your investment growing over a period of time.
We strongly recommend our members (who are new to stock market) to kindly go through our Asset Allocation Questionnaire to understand your investment profile and risk tolerance.
By answering 15 questions about your risk preferences, you can find out your investment profile and risk tolerance. This score will determine the asset allocation that best suits your risk preferences, you can use our simple excel workbook - Saral Gyan Asset Allocation Questionnaire which suggests the optimum split between cash, bonds and stocks.
Time has shown that smart investors have made their fortune by investing in equities in long term. None other asset class can match giving you such extra ordinary returns. Yes, its important for you to invest in right set of companies at right price with medium to long term perspective. If you think to invest in stocks for period of 3 months or 6 months, we suggest you to stay out of stock market because you are not investing, you are betting on volatility of stock market which could be risky.
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